South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 03/03/2018 Onwards

[EllyTech]

16 minutes ago, matt111 said:

You might need to remove the daffodil @EllyTech 

Not this again. 

 

[karlos1983]

OH MY GOODNESS!

GFS is an absolute snow stonker!! ECM close to it, UKMO huge improvement.

if you’re not onboard or interested I’d suggest a long sleep from Saturday afternoon until around Monday lunchtime and when you wake up, avoid looking out the window for another 36-48 hrs. 

[Andy Bown]

Hilarious! Today has been touted as a dry day for ages yet here we are with a Bristol Channel streamer! Watching Points West forecast right now just stating the 'odd isolated shower' which is blatantly wrong as they speak!

[Nights King]

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

OH MY GOODNESS!

GFS is an absolute snow stonker!! ECM close to it, UKMO huge improvement.

if you’re not onboard or interested I’d suggest a long sleep from Saturday afternoon until around Monday lunchtime and when you wake up, avoid looking out the window for another 36-48 hrs. 

Karlos is on board. 

Another good morning.. 

[karlos1983]

14 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Karlos is on board. 

Another good morning.. 

Yes I am onboard 

[meshellby]

Please no freezing rain this time!!! 

[Jayfromcardiff]

42 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes I am onboard 

So whens the snow coming mate? 

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

So whens the snow coming mate? 

Showers probably becoming more widespread later Saturday then we have this feature bringing more organised snowfall *possibly*  from this wave overnight Saturday into/through Sunday. 

[jethro]

Morning all, it's spring here today, glorious blue sky, sunny and feeling very mild, welcome relief from the miserable wetness of the last few days. Looks very likely that it's not going to last though, winter isn't done with us yet and the snow on the Mendip tops is ready and waiting for a top up. Hey ho, it will be t shirt weather again one day soonish.

[Dorsetbred]

45 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Showers probably becoming more widespread later Saturday then we have this feature bringing more organised snowfall *possibly*  from this wave overnight Saturday into/through Sunday. 

Morning, I said to the wife "Karlos is on a roll", to which she said "He's normally pretty accurate on these things".. She was immediately show a red card and dismissed to the garden. So, I mentioned Mapantz isn't bothered now, and she replied "Oh it's not clear cut then"....

Edited March 13, 2018 by Dorsetbred

[Jayfromcardiff]

So we've snow starting Sunday and not ending until Monday? I'm no good at reading those charts but that's what it looked like. Some of the snow really heavy too, I have a funny feeling we could see more than the other week.

[karlos1983]

23 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Morning, I said to the wife "Karlos is on a roll", to which she said "He's normally pretty accurate on these things".. She was immediately show a red card and dismissed to the garden. So, I mentioned Mapantz isn't bothered now, and she replied "Oh it's not clear cut then"....

Well Wenger still hasn’t left, so I can’t be that accurate.... ? Anyway I’m only saying what the model doth show, ?‍♂️

[MattTarrant]

13 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

So we've snow starting Sunday and not ending until Monday? I'm no good at reading those charts but that's what it looked like. Some of the snow really heavy too, I have a funny feeling we could see more than the other week.

I say with high confidence that snow totals will be far reduced on the last spell. 

Saturday morning should see the introduction of the far colder airmass via a weakening wintry front moving east to west (accelerated form of last night's fax charts). This will herald an introduction into a deeply unstable and showery airstream, providing snow showers to eastern counties through Saturday. These showers will spread well inland by Sunday with  nowhere immune from sporadic cover. Also very low confidence for a period of more persistent snow transitioning off the continent Saturday night/Sunday morning. Snow cover may become disruptive locally though no major disruption is currently signalled. 

[Dorsetbred]

1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:

I say with high confidence that snow totals will be far reduced on the last spell. 

Saturday morning should see the introduction of the far colder airmass via a weakening wintry front moving east to west (accelerated form of last night's fax charts). This will herald an introduction into a deeply unstable and showery airstream, providing snow showers to eastern counties through Saturday. These showers will spread well inland by Sunday with  nowhere immune from sporadic cover. Also very low confidence for a period of more persistent snow transitioning off the continent Saturday night/Sunday morning. Snow cover may become disruptive locally though no major disruption is currently signalled. 

And of course soil temperatures are higher this time, so less likely to last, well at least down here.

[MattTarrant]

1 minute ago, Dorsetbred said:

And of course soil temperatures are higher this time, so less likely to last, well at least down here.

Angle of solar radiation (not sun strength) will limit duration of snow cover. I always question those who say 'Sun strength', not strictly true as reason for seasonal cycles is the angle of incidence. 

[Dorsetbred]

3 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

Angle of solar radiation (not sun strength) will limit duration of snow cover. I always question those who say 'Sun strength', not strictly true as reason for seasonal cycles is the angle of incidence. 

And we have plenty of solar radiation this morning down here, quite a pleasant day, with a warming  9.9°C and a light breeze from the WSW

[*Stormforce~beka*]

17 hours ago, EllyTech said:

Oh no, the pressure turned you into a seedling sadist. ????? There is such a thing as Kama you know. ?

... and  no, I don't know what the umbrella is doing there. I think its meant for Beka - looks like we have to go shopping again Beka.

I ain't listening :-D *Fingers in ears* lol

[*Stormforce~beka*]

15 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

The train leaving for the next cold front. leaves in 4 days...until then please enjoy the trip..

PS I ain't hoppin on until then..

Waiting at the train stop with ya!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

So whens the snow coming mate? 

I think that's madam dear ;-)

[ARTDEMOLE]

Walking in sunshine this morning. 8.9c. Humidity 62%rh. Pressure 991.5 hPa. Easterlies tomorrow through to Tuesday evening. Bringing ??????.

[karlos1983]

Think I’ll be waiting for the short range hi-res models to flex their muscles, they did very well last time around. I do not think we will see as widespread high totals as the March 1st cold spell, but I do think we will see disruption, more particularly Saturday night into Sunday. 

[Dorsetbred]

1 minute ago, ARTDEMOLE said:

Walking in sunshine this morning. 8.9c. Humidity 62%rh. Pressure 991.5 hPa. Easterlies tomorrow through to Tuesday evening. Bringing ??????.

More Novichok?

[Andy Bown]

Thankfully the showers died out around 8am and after a few hours of low cloud we now have sunny spells, a gentle breeze , it's 9.4c and pleasant.

[ARTDEMOLE]

26 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

More Novichok?

Does it mix with ready cooled Wodka from the easterlies.

 

[Mark Parsons]

1 hour ago, Dorsetbred said:

And of course soil temperatures are higher this time, so less likely to last, well at least down here.

The soil temps are still low, it takes sometime for the ground to start holding heat again.........