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Captain Shortwave

Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards

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6 minutes ago, A Wintry Mix said:

Not bad for the 1st March

Thanet -3 6c snow a bit heavier

Screenshot_20180301-080647.png

Think for this cold spell, this is the best East Kent has done so far. I'm still confident we may see a prolonged period of light snow this morning and today. Don't think the front will clear as quickly or as cleanly as it appears on radar. 😁

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3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Red warning issued for parts of the South-West and Wales!

Yep! Also snow here all day, some tonight then all day tomorrow, wow.

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7 minutes ago, john mac said:

566FE2ED-83AF-463E-A33E-ABDC140FE795.png

I think Mr Fawkes is onto something. All hi-res models show snow in our region starting with the dusting just now, followed by a break and then a good dumping later. They also all agree that the next  band arrives overnight rather than late tomorrow morning. Arpege is the most bullish followed by HIRLAM. 

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Looks like the amber warning zone has been moved further west if anything :wallbash:Not necessarily a downgrade, just an increase in certainty regarding that heaviest snowfall. I'm sure a few could still get lucky throughout the day and evening, even if the worst of it will almost certainly be in the west.

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Red warning issued for parts of the South-West and Wales!

Indeed.  Real concern then.  Some very rural communities down there, up on the Mendips etc,  

Still only light snow here.

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Exeter in the red warning

you don’t see that everyday

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21 minutes ago, paget said:

Is this lot likely to get to us (The bit off the SW coast) ??

sorry for my rubbish meteorological terms!!! 😃

 

IMG_3282.PNG

That area is going to feed northwards, worth watching the stuff near Borduex at the moment, looks a good position for much of SE.

Thus far Hirlam looking decent still for evolution. Should be a bit ofa lull before the next pluse. Further west the better your chances for this second area.

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Just now, seb said:

I think Mr Fawkes is onto something. All hi-res models show snow in our region starting with the dusting just now, followed by a break and then a good dumping later. They also all agree that the next  band arrives overnight rather than late tomorrow morning. Arpege is the most bullish followed by HIRLAM. 

Interesting to see what totals we get 

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Steady snow Here in Boxley, mix of Powder type and a few fluffy flakes, that Wind is cutting!

Edited by Kent Blizzard

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1 minute ago, seb said:

I think Mr Fawkes is onto something. All hi-res models show snow in our region starting with the dusting just now, followed by a break and then a good dumping later. They also all agree that the next  band arrives overnight rather than late tomorrow morning. Arpege is the most bullish followed by HIRLAM. 

Completely at odds with MetO warning issued for south west et al literally just now @seb?

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I can’t tell if I should be excited or disappointed! Last night was great but despite snowing for near on 5/6hours not much settled and it compacted overnight. 

Lifut snow falling and settling but would take a year of this to build up decent depth. 

I want us to be in a red warning lol

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Snow moving up now 

worst areas NW / W london & NE Kent

A4ABB908-09C2-41FF-8B0A-2CE439312BE9.thumb.png.75f738467d7387c2ff8b3daf88cc943d.png

back edge through by 930

Still -4.7c here

Edited by Steve Murr

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Much heavier now, must be under the more intense echo over south east! Kids loving it  :)

 

Mum not well though :(

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To those complaining that this snow is quite light and patchy, I’m pretty sure the heavier snow wasn’t forecast until tonight/tomorrow anyway.

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I listened to the Radio 4 weather forecast just before 8 o'clock and the last thing Helen Willetts said was we are keeping an eye on developments South East

Edited by TN26

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And another snow day. Running out of milk!

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Snow moving up now 

worst areas NW / W london & NE Kent

A4ABB908-09C2-41FF-8B0A-2CE439312BE9.thumb.png.75f738467d7387c2ff8b3daf88cc943d.png

back edge through by 930

Still -4.7c here

Snowing quite well still, shame it's going to stop

Thanet -3.6c

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Would it be fair to say we shouldn't be hopeful for anything other than light snow in this area over the next 48hrs? 

 

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1 minute ago, pureasthedriven said:

Completely at odds with MetO warning issued for south west et al literally just now @seb?

No not at all. Yellow warning was updated this morning to be extended further north in the SE as it only covered half of Kent. 2-5cm included in that warning along with 50mph gusts. May well be updated or upgraded again depending on next model run and above all I would say live radar data.

Red Warning area is shown as highest totals and strongest winds on all models. Also, red is necessary because of high risk of freezing rain in that area tonight.

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I can’t see the snow being massively heavy today. Is there a downgrade generally?

I’ve not known short-term forecasts to be so sketchy and widely uncertain as they have been this week - not complaining but I have literally no idea what to expect in the next 24 hours

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6 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Exeter in the red warning

you don’t see that everyday

Quite, I have a lot of family members there and they will be shocked, so I hope they get ready

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2 hours ago, Surrey said:

Radar suggests thats not the case I'm trying to explain why 

Screenshot_20180301-054027.thumb.png.e9b6cbfc659fa1c0b11f2487e981123a.png

Ok then even though there's a red warning for here?

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1 minute ago, seb said:

No not at all. Yellow warning was updated this morning to be extended further north in the SE as it only covered half of Kent. 2-5cm included in that warning along with 50mph gusts. May well be updated or upgraded again depending on next model run and above all I would say live radar data.

Red Warning area is shown as highest totals and strongest winds on all models. Also, red is necessary because of high risk of freezing rain in that area tonight.

Thanks. Radar watch it is then. 

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