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Captain Shortwave

Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards

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4 minutes ago, John Stevens said:

Think we really have been the only part of Surrey not have been invited to the party!

Think you will be joining the party in the next 48hrs:good:

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54 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ARGEPE 18Z just coming out, MASSIVE upgrade for Sussex, Surrey and London tomorrow night. Would expect amber warning to shift eastwards tomorrow morning if this is repeated on other models.

lol

 

overview_026.jpg?2018022818

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8 minutes ago, John Stevens said:

Think we really have been the only part of Surrey not have been invited to the party!

No Charlwood has been pretty much left out too. A splattering of snow and mostly green grass left from Monday and yesterday. Blue skies and bright sunshine all day.

Edited by Storme

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After nothing of note from this event so far, this evening has marked a massive turnaround for the better 👍

We’ve has persistent snow for most of the evening which is now rather heavy. A nice cover is now developing!

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2 minutes ago, surrey snowboy said:

Hopefully we'll receive the invites tomorrow! Feels so wrong to be looking out at the bare slopes of Denbies and Box Hill when London is smothered!

Couldn't agree more. Normally we're inundated in Holmbury while everyone else is still green... Looking forward to the morning

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3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Having a look at the various models..

HIRLAM and APERGE are closest to real world observations, it just so happens both of those models bury our entire region.

5a97363c4cb34_ScreenShot2018-02-28at22_59_31.thumb.png.33e748a8e6eb628e72420c91fb8c3d6e.png

snowdepth_048.thumb.jpg.cfe14d192462dacae63fdfb7b77ccf10.jpg

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

Radar shows it heading North/North-East directly towards us. GFS is about 150 miles wrong so that can be completely discounted.

EURO4 not interested and keeps it West

EURO4.thumb.gif.b8351d427ec23d5025ebf66d5e2fd7c7.gif

So.. no idea whats going to happen. Keep an eye on the radar, the sudden shift Eastwards now the low has developed is definitely an encouraging one. 10-15cm max on top of what some have already would be absolutely epic!

That Euro4 is out of date - 18z just trickling out..

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31 minutes ago, CrimsonSunset said:

BBC forecast just now was rather unremarkable for tomorrow for London. Friday looks promising though 

Looks like they haven’t seen the latest GFS or Hirlam output 🤔

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13 minutes ago, FlightlessWings said:

I actually went up to Epsom for an appointment today - left a very sunny Dorking behind to arrive for the onset of a very heavy shower. We often get more than others but not this time.

I am staying in Leatherhead tomorrow so I can be closer to the M25, just in case the snow hits hard on Thursday night/Friday. 

I also got some unexpected deep snow where I was staying on the 26th/27th December last year so at least I have seen some this winter!

Fingers crossed your plan will work and you will get to see some decent snow followed by hassle-free travel!

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IF it does hit us and we see the totals that the Aperge/HIRLAM are showing then surely this is one of the biggest "caught off guard" moments for quite a number of years? 

I'd expect to see Met Office Amber warnings extended Eastwards at some point during the night if so

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6 minutes ago, surrey snowboy said:

Hopefully we'll receive the invites tomorrow! Feels so wrong to be looking out at the bare slopes of Denbies and Box Hill when London is smothered!

Despite the fact I got some unexpected snow today in Epsom, it has been so odd to see snowy beaches to our South and a snowy London to our North! I went to Box Hill today and the main slope was green at 10.30am! Luckily we found a little slope by the Fort which helped to appease the kid's  (and mine!) disappointment!!

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If anything, the HIRLAM model is still too far West compared to where it is on the radars..

This is.. exciting!

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3 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

45 here so another 70's child

It was the winters of the 80's that made us winter weather freaks

Anyway who in the South of the Region has NOT had any lying snow from this feline Cat from the East yet ?

Would be interested to knowhad about a milimetre twice, but melted as soon as daylight came.

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

IF it does hit us and we see the totals that the Aperge/HIRLAM are showing then surely this is one of the biggest "caught off guard" moments for quite a number of years? 

I'd expect to see Met Office Amber warnings extended Eastwards at some point during the night if so

or the models are way off and it slides west as first expected

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Just now, surrey snowboy said:

Fingers crossed your plan will work and you will get to see some decent snow followed by hassle-free travel!

Thanks - I am off to somewhere they have plenty of snow the other side of the pond (booked as I was snow starved - which officially I still am...!). So happy for others in the region with all their snow. Also chuffed we had icicles today which has been one of my favourite weather related things since the crazy ones of my 1980s early childhood!

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3 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Despite the fact I got some unexpected snow today in Epsom, it has been so odd to see snowy beaches to our South and a snowy London to our North! I went to Box Hill today and the main slope was green at 10.30am! Luckily we found a little slope by the Fort which helped to appease the kid's  (and mine!) disappointment!!

If you want to know if there is snow lying tomorrow just ask, I have a view of the lookout point all day! 

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13 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Having a look at the various models..

HIRLAM and APERGE are closest to real world observations, it just so happens both of those models bury our entire region.

5a97363c4cb34_ScreenShot2018-02-28at22_59_31.thumb.png.33e748a8e6eb628e72420c91fb8c3d6e.png

snowdepth_048.thumb.jpg.cfe14d192462dacae63fdfb7b77ccf10.jpg

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

Radar shows it heading North/North-East directly towards us. GFS is about 150 miles wrong so that can be completely discounted.

EURO4 not interested and keeps it West

EURO4.thumb.gif.b8351d427ec23d5025ebf66d5e2fd7c7.gif

So.. no idea whats going to happen. Keep an eye on the radar, the sudden shift Eastwards now the low has developed is definitely an encouraging one. 10-15cm max on top of what some have already would be absolutely epic!

Any reason the aprege has no accumulations for the coasts but hirlam does?

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Just now, FlightlessWings said:

If you want to know if there is snow lying tomorrow just ask, I have a view of the lookout point all day! 

Love this! Thank you! You could save me a wasted trip and that look on the kids faces again, lol! Thanks :Dx

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1 minute ago, tomp456 said:

Any reason the aprege has no accumulations for the coasts but hirlam does?

No idea.. 

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15 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Having a look at the various models..

HIRLAM and APERGE are closest to real world observations, it just so happens both of those models bury our entire region.

5a97363c4cb34_ScreenShot2018-02-28at22_59_31.thumb.png.33e748a8e6eb628e72420c91fb8c3d6e.png

snowdepth_048.thumb.jpg.cfe14d192462dacae63fdfb7b77ccf10.jpg

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

Radar shows it heading North/North-East directly towards us. GFS is about 150 miles wrong so that can be completely discounted.

EURO4 not interested and keeps it West

EURO4.thumb.gif.b8351d427ec23d5025ebf66d5e2fd7c7.gif

So.. no idea whats going to happen. Keep an eye on the radar, the sudden shift Eastwards now the low has developed is definitely an encouraging one. 10-15cm max on top of what some have already would be absolutely epic!

remember euro 4 was run at midday all of the 18z has trended east even the ones that are miles wrong at t-3. 

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3 hours ago, nicktabs said:

Few people asking where the precip is over France. Here you go.

Screen Shot 2018-02-28 at 20.08.54.png

Strange looks like it will either miss to our east, or stay south.

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7 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

or the models are way off and it slides west as first expected

I wonder how instinctive forecasters at MET office tonight are? there probably trained to issue warnings from model prediction a couple day ahead or 12 hours ahead when uncertainty. A top forecaster would now be looking at the radar now and saying MOGREPS/UKMO is wrong here the band is much further north east closer to HIRLAM prediction, I better  change the warnings and get message out there. I May be being too cynical but reckon they will change warning about 7am when senior people get in.

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