Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: SE Kent
  • Location: SE Kent
    3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

    Having a look at the various models..

    HIRLAM and APERGE are closest to real world observations, it just so happens both of those models bury our entire region.

    5a97363c4cb34_ScreenShot2018-02-28at22_59_31.thumb.png.33e748a8e6eb628e72420c91fb8c3d6e.png

    snowdepth_048.thumb.jpg.cfe14d192462dacae63fdfb7b77ccf10.jpg

    http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

    Radar shows it heading North/North-East directly towards us. GFS is about 150 miles wrong so that can be completely discounted.

    EURO4 not interested and keeps it West

    EURO4.thumb.gif.b8351d427ec23d5025ebf66d5e2fd7c7.gif

    So.. no idea whats going to happen. Keep an eye on the radar, the sudden shift Eastwards now the low has developed is definitely an encouraging one. 10-15cm max on top of what some have already would be absolutely epic!

    That Euro4 is out of date - 18z just trickling out..

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 8.2k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Officially signing off from my Perch by the window. Have a great year -  Enjoy it with your Families- Current pic - 4.5 inches    my favourite pic - Cheers All

    So this is it, the end of winter. Time to look forward to Spring..... Wait, what's this?        Apparently not. So for the time being, we will remain as one for this cold spell. Ple

    Some photos from the last couple of days. Near Bewl Water in East Sussex.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    31 minutes ago, CrimsonSunset said:

    BBC forecast just now was rather unremarkable for tomorrow for London. Friday looks promising though 

    Looks like they haven’t seen the latest GFS or Hirlam output ?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
  • Location: Dorking, Surrey
    13 minutes ago, FlightlessWings said:

    I actually went up to Epsom for an appointment today - left a very sunny Dorking behind to arrive for the onset of a very heavy shower. We often get more than others but not this time.

    I am staying in Leatherhead tomorrow so I can be closer to the M25, just in case the snow hits hard on Thursday night/Friday. 

    I also got some unexpected deep snow where I was staying on the 26th/27th December last year so at least I have seen some this winter!

    Fingers crossed your plan will work and you will get to see some decent snow followed by hassle-free travel!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    IF it does hit us and we see the totals that the Aperge/HIRLAM are showing then surely this is one of the biggest "caught off guard" moments for quite a number of years? 

    I'd expect to see Met Office Amber warnings extended Eastwards at some point during the night if so

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
    6 minutes ago, surrey snowboy said:

    Hopefully we'll receive the invites tomorrow! Feels so wrong to be looking out at the bare slopes of Denbies and Box Hill when London is smothered!

    Despite the fact I got some unexpected snow today in Epsom, it has been so odd to see snowy beaches to our South and a snowy London to our North! I went to Box Hill today and the main slope was green at 10.30am! Luckily we found a little slope by the Fort which helped to appease the kid's  (and mine!) disappointment!!

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    If anything, the HIRLAM model is still too far West compared to where it is on the radars..

    This is.. exciting!

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    3 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

    45 here so another 70's child

    It was the winters of the 80's that made us winter weather freaks

    Anyway who in the South of the Region has NOT had any lying snow from this feline Cat from the East yet ?

    Would be interested to knowhad about a milimetre twice, but melted as soon as daylight came.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
    2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

    IF it does hit us and we see the totals that the Aperge/HIRLAM are showing then surely this is one of the biggest "caught off guard" moments for quite a number of years? 

    I'd expect to see Met Office Amber warnings extended Eastwards at some point during the night if so

    or the models are way off and it slides west as first expected

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorking
  • Location: Dorking
    Just now, surrey snowboy said:

    Fingers crossed your plan will work and you will get to see some decent snow followed by hassle-free travel!

    Thanks - I am off to somewhere they have plenty of snow the other side of the pond (booked as I was snow starved - which officially I still am...!). So happy for others in the region with all their snow. Also chuffed we had icicles today which has been one of my favourite weather related things since the crazy ones of my 1980s early childhood!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey

    41yrs old here and grew up on Box Hill in the 80's.......nuff said!!!:rofl: Explains why I've ended up here 30yrs later, eh?! And my brother @Chertseystreamer79 too!!!x

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dorking
  • Location: Dorking
    3 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

    Despite the fact I got some unexpected snow today in Epsom, it has been so odd to see snowy beaches to our South and a snowy London to our North! I went to Box Hill today and the main slope was green at 10.30am! Luckily we found a little slope by the Fort which helped to appease the kid's  (and mine!) disappointment!!

    If you want to know if there is snow lying tomorrow just ask, I have a view of the lookout point all day! 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
    13 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

    Having a look at the various models..

    HIRLAM and APERGE are closest to real world observations, it just so happens both of those models bury our entire region.

    5a97363c4cb34_ScreenShot2018-02-28at22_59_31.thumb.png.33e748a8e6eb628e72420c91fb8c3d6e.png

    snowdepth_048.thumb.jpg.cfe14d192462dacae63fdfb7b77ccf10.jpg

    http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

    Radar shows it heading North/North-East directly towards us. GFS is about 150 miles wrong so that can be completely discounted.

    EURO4 not interested and keeps it West

    EURO4.thumb.gif.b8351d427ec23d5025ebf66d5e2fd7c7.gif

    So.. no idea whats going to happen. Keep an eye on the radar, the sudden shift Eastwards now the low has developed is definitely an encouraging one. 10-15cm max on top of what some have already would be absolutely epic!

    Any reason the aprege has no accumulations for the coasts but hirlam does?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

    There's no way that lot is going to miss our region.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Cold/Snowy Winter! Just SEASONAL!!
  • Location: Ashtead, nr Epsom Surrey
    Just now, FlightlessWings said:

    If you want to know if there is snow lying tomorrow just ask, I have a view of the lookout point all day! 

    Love this! Thank you! You could save me a wasted trip and that look on the kids faces again, lol! Thanks :Dx

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    1 minute ago, tomp456 said:

    Any reason the aprege has no accumulations for the coasts but hirlam does?

    No idea.. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
    15 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

    Having a look at the various models..

    HIRLAM and APERGE are closest to real world observations, it just so happens both of those models bury our entire region.

    5a97363c4cb34_ScreenShot2018-02-28at22_59_31.thumb.png.33e748a8e6eb628e72420c91fb8c3d6e.png

    snowdepth_048.thumb.jpg.cfe14d192462dacae63fdfb7b77ccf10.jpg

    http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

    Radar shows it heading North/North-East directly towards us. GFS is about 150 miles wrong so that can be completely discounted.

    EURO4 not interested and keeps it West

    EURO4.thumb.gif.b8351d427ec23d5025ebf66d5e2fd7c7.gif

    So.. no idea whats going to happen. Keep an eye on the radar, the sudden shift Eastwards now the low has developed is definitely an encouraging one. 10-15cm max on top of what some have already would be absolutely epic!

    remember euro 4 was run at midday all of the 18z has trended east even the ones that are miles wrong at t-3. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    3 hours ago, nicktabs said:

    Few people asking where the precip is over France. Here you go.

    Screen Shot 2018-02-28 at 20.08.54.png

    Strange looks like it will either miss to our east, or stay south.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
    8 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

    http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

    There's no way that lot is going to miss our region.

    isnt it the rain off the coast of Spain we should be looking at? not in France at the moment

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
    7 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

    or the models are way off and it slides west as first expected

    I wonder how instinctive forecasters at MET office tonight are? there probably trained to issue warnings from model prediction a couple day ahead or 12 hours ahead when uncertainty. A top forecaster would now be looking at the radar now and saying MOGREPS/UKMO is wrong here the band is much further north east closer to HIRLAM prediction, I better  change the warnings and get message out there. I May be being too cynical but reckon they will change warning about 7am when senior people get in.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    21 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

    After nothing of note from this event so far, this evening has marked a massive turnaround for the better ?

    We’ve has persistent snow for most of the evening which is now rather heavy. A nice cover is now developing!

    Cool, you certainly deserve it CK. Quite a streamer there west of London towards Reading still going strong.

    Just been light here most of the evening, probably not even added 1cm, very strong blowing wind though, bitterly cold too.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North of Steyning - West Sussex - some 10 miles south of Horsham
  • Location: North of Steyning - West Sussex - some 10 miles south of Horsham
    56 minutes ago, West Sussex Kate said:

    I think West Sussex is ready for The Beast from the East part 2! 

     

    Bring it on.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
    1 minute ago, snowray said:

    Cool, you certainly deserve it CK. Quite a streamer there west of London towards Reading still going strong.

    Just been light here most of the evening, probably not even added 1cm, very strong blowing wind though, bitterly cold too.

    I can’t see it lasting much longer tonight, before the fun and games begin tomorrow.

    Just chuffed we finally got in on the action!

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    3 hours ago, Great Plum said:

    Just got into the yellow warning area that’s been updated for tonight...

    873F0CB5-0513-4533-8CF9-6B0985C3E381.jpeg

    Think I'm even in it, however anything coming here is so light, it's not reaching the ground.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...