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Captain Shortwave

Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards

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1 minute ago, fluid dynamic said:

marrying a model hahaha

Yes! Heh 

 

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Looking like the winds maybe finally starting to swing round gradually, still got some more time with the direct easterly though. Just a solid 5hrs later than suggested hence the fun and games this evening that was so badly forecasted.

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Well getting just over 10cms of snow here, (stopped around a hour ago) what a sight for sore eyes 👀 first time I’ve seen disruptive snow laying overnight since 2010, Tomorrow looks great also 👌

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2 minutes ago, samalllpop said:

5cm in cobham and the roads are terrible..... was really coming down earlier.... looking at the radar the wind has turned north so waiting for the next bit of fun 

It’s looking great out there in Cobham took the dog for a late walk in Esher common and it was so light with the reflective snow cover - all the local roads were pretty well covered though.

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3 hours ago, shotski said:

ECM 46 dayer was also hinting at this so it’s certainly not alone. Look at this 2 meter temp anomaly for 7th March 😮  interesting 

4F137B66-3BF1-4E44-9163-5D2EA2CA4765.png

 

 

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1 minute ago, london-snow said:

Well getting just over 10cms of snow here, (stopped around a hour ago) what a sight for sore eyes 👀 first time I’ve seen disruptive snow laying overnight since 2010, Tomorrow looks great also 👌

Weren't you dismissing this cold spell earlier this week? :D

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Is Hilram's forecast for about now the closest to the actual situation right now, just out of interest?

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Seems that lot heading through france is rapidly moving north-east,are we due anything from this,be nice,seeing as i've missed nearly all the fun

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30 minutes ago, surrey snowboy said:

Just travelled by train from London to Dorking. Everywhere white until we got out of the tunnel under the North Downs. Looking at radar, seems like there’s a noticeable snow shadow to the south of the downs. Hopefully tomorrow will make up for it! 

Yep, we have been a little out of the picture. I would like to say that I am happy about the lack of disruption as I have so much work to do before going on holiday on Friday (or perhaps not). But then I would be lying to myself...

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6 minutes ago, CrimsonSunset said:

BBC forecast just now was rather unremarkable for tomorrow for London. Friday looks promising though 

Friday looks amazing but I expect tomorrow to be pretty decent as well

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3 minutes ago, Ben Blizzard said:

Is Hilram's forecast for about now the closest to the actual situation right now, just out of interest?

Yes, though that doesn't necessarily mean it'll stay that way

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8 minutes ago, CrimsonSunset said:

BBC forecast just now was rather unremarkable for tomorrow for London. Friday looks promising though 

I suspect Thursday may throw quite decent surprise, London may well be on the eastern edge of the really decent stuff after the morning but there is enough to suggest at least enough to cause transport issues. Met office going to have a difficult call now on whether to extend to Amber warning eastwards again.

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ARPEGE takes heavier snowfall much further east on the 18z. A ridiculous amount of uncertainty given we're at 24 hours.

It's going to come down to radar watching and now casting as usual it seems.

snowdepth_033.jpg?2018022818

Edited by Sainsbo
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2 minutes ago, FlightlessWings said:

Yep, we have been a little out of the picture. I would like to say that I am happy about the lack of disruption as I have so much work to do before going on holiday on Friday (or perhaps not). But then I would be lying to myself...

Haha! Yes, it's quite challenging putting a positive spin on Dorking's comparative lack of snow, especially since Leatherhead and Epsom joined the party today!

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^^ & thats before Friday !!!

double bubble !

Right having an early one -

-5c here & last of the light snow.

Still 14cm on the ground- happy with 5 tomorrow after all the upgrades but be amazed with Hirlam / Aperge if they came off !

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Had to drive down to Horley from Reigate this evening. Usual accident on the a217 has closed the road. Unbelievably cold out of the car - flurries of snow being blown in the biting wind but nothing of note.

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Just had a quick sled down tankerton slopes, I only had 1 go, great Fun, but the wind is brutal, it takes your breathe away. Like nothing I've ever experienced in the UK.

-5 on the drive home, with cloud cover very impressive. 

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5 minutes ago, surrey snowboy said:

Haha! Yes, it's quite challenging putting a positive spin on Dorking's comparative lack of snow, especially since Leatherhead and Epsom joined the party today!

I actually went up to Epsom for an appointment today - left a very sunny Dorking behind to arrive for the onset of a very heavy shower. We often get more than others but not this time.

I am staying in Leatherhead tomorrow so I can be closer to the M25, just in case the snow hits hard on Thursday night/Friday. 

I also got some unexpected deep snow where I was staying on the 26th/27th December last year so at least I have seen some this winter!

Edited by FlightlessWings

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7 minutes ago, Sainsbo said:

ARPEGE takes heavier snowfall much further east on the 18z. A ridiculous amount of uncertainty given we're at 24 hours.

It's going to come down to radar watching and now casting as usual it seems.

snowdepth_033.jpg?2018022818

Also that is WITHOUT any snow on Friday day time.

Ignore the WRF-NNM, its so far incorrect with the placement ofthe front its a joke, 18z run goes into the bin (its at least 150 miles too far south at 3hrs out!) Front is probably 4hrs ahead of it already!

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That wind is no joke, cant really remember the wind feeling like that before. 

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6 minutes ago, surrey snowboy said:

Haha! Yes, it's quite challenging putting a positive spin on Dorking's comparative lack of snow, especially since Leatherhead and Epsom joined the party today!

Think we really have been the only part of Surrey not have been invited to the party!

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Having a look at the various models..

HIRLAM and APERGE are closest to real world observations, it just so happens both of those models bury our entire region.

5a97363c4cb34_ScreenShot2018-02-28at22_59_31.thumb.png.33e748a8e6eb628e72420c91fb8c3d6e.png

snowdepth_048.thumb.jpg.cfe14d192462dacae63fdfb7b77ccf10.jpg

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=loop1uur

Radar shows it heading North/North-East directly towards us. GFS is about 150 miles wrong so that can be completely discounted.

EURO4 not interested and keeps it West

EURO4.thumb.gif.b8351d427ec23d5025ebf66d5e2fd7c7.gif

So.. no idea whats going to happen. Keep an eye on the radar, the sudden shift Eastwards now the low has developed is definitely an encouraging one. 10-15cm max on top of what some have already would be absolutely epic!

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1 minute ago, John Stevens said:

Think we really have been the only part of Surrey not have been invited to the party!

Hopefully we'll receive the invites tomorrow! Feels so wrong to be looking out at the bare slopes of Denbies and Box Hill when London is smothered!

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