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Captain Shortwave

Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards

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The icon has us under snow for Sunday as well:smile:

icon-10-84.png?28-18

Edited by D.V.R
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2 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

Been a long wait hasn't it!

Yeah been frustrating

but we have a streamer at last

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Quick question. I noticed this  year all of the grit used is white. What happened to the brown stuff?

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2 minutes ago, Mark said:

Where are you?

I was in Amberley, near Arundel today. Beautiful, but snow free, apart from a few shady spots

Crawley. Its looking good on the radar.

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8 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

we're under another blob now.. should start snowing again

and it has! :)

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3 minutes ago, rubble79 said:

As it’s blowing about it’s hard to tell how much has fallen. Fingers crossed we get a few more hours of this 

true.. got to drive to work soon.. hopefully the main roads are clear.

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3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Yes 100% aiding in it, absolute classic lake effect snow looks beautiful on radar and the sat is also stunning notice the system moving north through France enhancing the snow over us as it edges closer 

Which strikes me as a bit unusual, given that a frontal shield usually restricts precipitation.

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Half of me wants more snow. Still got plenty laying here. Not had any yet today. 

The other half of me is telling me that as a driving instructor, I need to get back to work at some point. 

Come morning, I’m going to be half happy and half disappointed. The question is, which half will be be happy?? 

 

I genuinely have have no idea what’s in store for the next 24 hours. Anyone willing to go out on a limb and predict what may come to north Kent tonight and tomorrow? 

Edited by SnowBungle

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24 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

looking pretty good still.. :good:

 

Ha ha thanks 

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25 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Be aware, most of the stuff in the south east ISN'T reaching the ground! There's barely a flake for the last 6 hours or so, yet the radar says yep light snow

Ah ok. Just had a very heavy shower here that’s covered everything again. 

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3 minutes ago, snowking said:

So here's what the various models were predicting for 9pm across France:

9-574.GIF?28-12arpege-1-10-0.png?28-16aromehd-1-9-0.png?28-16nmm-1-9-0.png?28-17P1_GZ_D5_PN_012_0000.gif18022821_2_2812.gifus_model-en-999-0_modez_2018022812_9_15_84.thumb.png.236e2aadc08cefd95caf1931cb9d5fa4.pnghirlam-1-9-0.png?28-16

As stated by Chris Fawkes earlier, HIRLAM definitely the closest fit to the current radar image:

5a971c8f3f414_ScreenShot2018-02-28at21_17_37.thumb.png.49f0a496b5275c8775b6fdb58508d67f.png

It's difficult to tell in terms of intensity how good a match it is but the main thing is almost all of the modelling is too far South-West right now. Now if we follow the sequence through even for the HIRLAM, you'll notice the precipitation runs Westwards along the front, so ultimately even though the system is a little further North-East of where most models forecast it to be, it may not make a huge amount of difference. But it's a good starting to point to try and bring as much of the region in to play as possible:

hirlam-1-12-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-14-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-15-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-16-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-17-0.png?28-16hirlam-1-18-0.png?28-16

So it will be very interesting to see where we find ourselves in the morning. The giveaway should be if by 7am we already have snow pushing into the South coast and it stretches all the way across to Dover

The other thing to note on the HIRLAM is that it keeps the feed coming in from the estuary for most of the night and then this kind of merges in to the band of snow as it heads North - remember Chris mentioned on Twitter earlier about frictional convection blowing through the Thames....

That thames streamer is still there tomorrow morning?

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5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Yes 100% aiding in it, absolute classic lake effect snow looks beautiful on radar and the sat is also stunning notice the system moving north through France enhancing the snow over us as it edges closer 

Have you also noticed it’s approximately 200 miles north of where the GFS and Euro4 place it for 9pm.

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#BeastFromTheEast #BigFreeze #snow #blizzard #ElmersEnd #Tescos #GreaterLondon

 

 

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Please can some one inform which pink blob is coming to get us??? I both feel they are to far west and still moving that way. But I also have. Feeling I’m reading it wrong

9B6E02D6-FB7D-46F6-9B18-92A0A08D533E.jpeg

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1 minute ago, CK1981 said:

Have you also noticed it’s approximately 200 miles north of where the GFS and Euro4 place it for 9pm.

Yep, threw Euro4 out the window, it has sucked all week tbh everyday when I run through the models I usually check the euro4 first, this well though its done so badly I've discounted it. 

GFS sucks at micro details and things such as complex as this it's more like "yeah this is where I want it so deal with it, could be 100 miles either way but whatever" 

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Certainly going to be an interesting 6-9hrs to come both in terms of convection and the frontal shield.

18z Hirlam is marginally less snowy over far SE but still gives widespread 10-15cms for all but Kent where totals ate more modest.

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2 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

That thames streamer is still there tomorrow morning?

According to HIRLAM it certainly is

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6 minutes ago, snowy weather said:

How much have you got in croyden?

3-4 cm around here I would say, I'm slightly off the beaten track (if possible in these parts!), there's not too much traffic moving so despite it being fairly light in nature, small flakes, it is starting to build.

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Certainly going to be an interesting 6-9hrs to come both in terms of convection and the frontal shield.

18z Hirlam is marginally less snowy over far SE but still gives widespread 10-15cms for all but Kent where totals ate more modest.

How's the 18z looking for those of us a bit further north above London? (Herts, Beds etc) :)

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Just now, DonnaThw said:

Please can some one inform which pink blob is coming to get us??? I both feel they are to far west and still moving that way. But I also have. Feeling I’m reading it wrong

9B6E02D6-FB7D-46F6-9B18-92A0A08D533E.jpeg

The one over northern France but the radar you are looking at is not picking up the other stuff.. 

Screenshot_20180228-213621.thumb.png.e284d395e8f39744384c86dd3812fe98.png

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Certainly going to be an interesting 6-9hrs to come both in terms of convection and the frontal shield.

18z Hirlam is marginally less snowy over far SE but still gives widespread 10-15cms for all but Kent where totals ate more modest.

Hi KW - do you have a link? Meteociel is not updated 

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