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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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1 minute ago, Nick L said:

Those snow depth charts are completely inaccurate. No idea what algorithm they use but it's nonsense!

Any idea on potential snow amounts from the "blizzard" on Thurs/Friday? Obviously rough estimates.

Hopefully the cold manages to hold on longer.

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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

For what I see the ECM 12z will have produced some of the largest snow totals of all the runs so far.

Exceptional chart, the hardest hit being the Dublin area receiving almost 65cm of snow between Thursday and Saturday. Whilst most other places looking in excess of 20-25cm.

5a93043bf17e2_snowaccumulation.thumb.jpg.d61e1af2cc7e745d5a7a906c951cf800.jpg

I do believe they are horridly inaccurate. The In & cm depths are completely different :wallbash:

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The modelled snow depths by Friday on the 12z ecm below.

Looks like Eastern Ireland is going to get walloped! 

For England and Wales, this run models all ppn falling as snow for the first 6 hours before ice pellets/freezing rain comes into the mix in the far south (roughly 40miles from the coast), snow further North. Then a return to all snow, even on the coast as the ppn begins to move northwards,  up the spine of the country and even making it to Scotland. 

 

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Models trending back to a prolonged spell of cold again for all after next weekend. Some milder air in the south for a time but blink and you will miss it. Severe Easterly spell followed by Blizzards in places (maybe two Blizzards), followed by renewed cold weather and either very cold north easterly's or the Polar Express joining in on the party. Next week (5 to 12 March) may also see some very low minimums under the slack air once the cold has re-asserted itself.  EPIC !

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Very good trends this evening pendulum swung back to an extended cold outlook limited to no real warm up. Southern half of country at risk of turning less cold very briefly.

7D67C05A-5FA1-45A1-A488-21B5BF1E04F4.thumb.gif.cd66bb04381ecd244c5bcc4d2be045bd.gif

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Great run from the ecm tonight. A slight milder blip in the south next weekend before we are all back into the cold airmass. Which definitely ties in with GP’s thoughts the other evening. We’re he did say that if any milder air got in it wouldn’t last long. And the ecm ties in with that statement this evening. :yahoo:

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15 minutes ago, terrier said:

Great run from the ecm tonight. A slight milder blip in the south next weekend before we are all back into the cold airmass.

That slightly less cold blip across southern uk might get squeezed even more on subsequent runs..fingers crossed the southward adjustments / corrections continue!:)

Edited by Frosty.
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Just now, Frosty. said:

That slightly less cold blip across southern uk might get squeezed even more on subsequent runs..fingers crossed the southward adjustments continue!:)

Yes Frosty I thinks there's a while to go yet on this before we are at a point  nailing the final outcome. Further ahead looking good on both ecm and gfs albeit via differing routes

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