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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Hot of the press here is the state of play by midday saturday on the ensembles, how many have the continental air still over us or have the cold air fighting back at that time?

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Overall the output is an improvement on the 06z, still quite a few go for the continental air losing its grip on most of England by saturday but this is no clear outcome.

The Meto in fact has plenty of support and some really beef up the incoming low before it stubbornly moves eastwards across the channel. Such scenarios would deliver huge snowfalls although quite a few make it a tad to close for marginal here that do have the continental air winning out. Some cold runs in there.

Finally I think it slipped under the radar but the 12z was actually a good run. As I mentioned earlier, if the cold pool we have over us isn't displaced later on in the week, an outcome like the GFS would produce very cold temperatures and lead to further snow events further down the line.

One to watch, lets see what the ECM makes of it all...

The orange line trending up now- long may it continue! :) 

Edited by mulzy
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54 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

If forecasting was that easy than why do we get predictions of snow wrong, time and time again? 

And if that was completely true, with what you said, why did the south coast endure one of their greatest blizzards on this day?;

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Scarily similar to the charts for this Friday. If this falls right, there could be one or two feet of snow from this system alone, make no mistake. The MO weather warning is in line with such an interpretation of the models - they're already using the most severe category in terms of potential impact. Possibly a once in a lifetime chance to see such a blizzard south of the M6, probably towards the SW but could be further north. This could be the biggest IMBY week on this forum ever seen!!

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Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, very severe conditions wed / thurs..fri still looks bitterly cold and the weekend is cold / very cold with further snow, especially further north and that continues into week 2..hoping any less cold intrusion is very brief or better still, doesn't happen at all!:)

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Little change on the 12z short ens for London with fairly solid agreement up to Friday into the weekend and the following week the mean is between 0 and -3

 

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Just to show the fine margins, Here is North Essex. What`s that 3 degs colder on the uppers? Obviously just for this model.

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, very severe conditions wed / thurs..fri still looks bitterly cold and the weekend is cold / very cold with further snow, especially further north and that continues into week 2..hoping any less cold intrusion is very brief or better still, doesn't happen at all!:)

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So even the GEFS mean chart predicts the UK March temperature record will be broken - previous lowest maximum of minus 4.6C according to Met Office stats

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55 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Steve am i right in thinking if this ukmo chart was correct, we would continue to see snow showers and convections across the east of the country, even with the main band of snow to the south/south west?

Yes - although there would be a gap between the cloud deck of the front & some clear air before convection can arrive -

N Ireland looks good there @Sperrin

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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

The UKMO at T144 shows exactly how I'd like Friday's low to play it, with trough disruption causing it to stall in the channel. Some huge snow amounts from that, being picky though maybe uppers could be a degree or two lower down here. We are in continental air still though the uppers at T120 creep above freezing, threat of freezing rain for us there... before turning back to snow :D

UKMO by far the best run yet for a major blizzard effecting a large swathe of England and Wales, as in these kind of situations (the likes we have not seen for a long long time) northward progression is crucial, UKMO is blizzard central for many :) 

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Euro 4 for Tuesday strangely has some rain in places

Around the Hull area could be in the sweet spot on Tuesday morning

6am                                                                Noon

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Edited by Summer Sun
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Just now, Frosty. said:

Just before the Ecm 12z rolls out, here are some charts from the GEFS 12z showing the very cold spell persisting well beyond next weekend!:cold::D

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Confused.com...so many posts saying it goes much milder at the weekend yet others saying not??..not easy reading for us novices...??...!!

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2 hours ago, Catacol said:

No definitive answer provided by ICON - still absolutely touch and go. Best case scenario IMBY remains snow showers on Tues/Weds and then blizzard on Thurs/Fri with cold air hanging on. Worst case remains dry through Tues/Weds and then rain on Thursday night into Friday. Many scenarios in between.

You'll forgive me if I declare that if the dry to rain scenario comes to pass I am likely to shut down for the winter and retire until November such will be the disappointment. A background scenario like this that fails to deliver, after years of waiting, will be the end of me even given the potential chance for more snow down the line this month. Never ever contemplate a move to lowland SW England if you like opportunities for frost and snow.

Fingers crossed for a decent evolution this week and that I'll still be online come Saturday. :-)

No! Don’t do that please. I’ve learned a lot from you this winter and am relying on your continued informative posts - you can come and stay here!

Got spare bedrooms and while there may not be a lot more weather excitement, it will be better than the south coast. ?

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1 minute ago, K9 said:

Confused.com...so many posts saying it goes much milder at the weekend yet others saying not??..not easy reading for us novices...??...!!

Look at it this way - no model (and no person) really knows for sure. Not even the experts. Your guess is as good as anybody's. :)

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22 minutes ago, chris55 said:

UKMO by far the best run yet for a major blizzard effecting a large swathe of England and Wales, as in these kind of situations (the likes we have not seen for a long long time) northward progression is crucial, UKMO is blizzard central for many :) 

For many but not all...cant see it getting up into lancs and cumbria.

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16 minutes ago, K9 said:

Confused.com...so many posts saying it goes much milder at the weekend yet others saying not??..not easy reading for us novices...??...!!

I'm not saying it's not going to become less cold, just showing charts that prolong the cold which is what coldies want to see..the end of the week is currently uncertain.:)

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GFS 12z......getting there.  This LP might be a blip....at worst with further prolonged cold showing.  The general idea for me is how I see it.  A big improvement with possibly more to come

UKMO getting there too....good 12z movement thus far

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Key timeframe now, T 92 on the ECM.  This represents a significant shift south from recent output and by and large follows the UKMO.  I've been sceptical of this trend to take the low north since Friday's GFS 18z, and it now looks like the major models are backtracking.  Still much to play for, still much that can go wrong.

ECM1-96.GIF?25-0

More rounded than the UKMO though. 

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21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Euro 4 for Tuesday strangely has some rain in places

Around the Hull area could be in the sweet spot on Tuesday morning

6am                                                                Noon

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That's looking nasty for my location I may need to send out :help:. can I ask if this came off below could this be very bad for my location would the line just keep feeding and stall.

 

ICON Friday.PNG

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ECM nearer GFS than UKMO with LP position and 'roundness' at +96, but has higher heights over Scandinavia so a mixed message there.

Result at +120 is... weird.

ECM1-120.GIF?25-0 ECM0-120.GIF?25-0

The main LP has gone to hammer S. Ireland but a weak secondary disturbance has mixed out some of the milder air to keep S England sub-zero at the 850 level. Also, heights are much higher over Scandinavia than the previous two ECM runs have gone with. Hmm. If only we could get the next thrust of LP to be across to Italy somehow!

Edited by Singularity
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