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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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1 hour ago, kev238 said:

My gut feeling is that there will be another disruptive snowfall in England before the end of the month though it will be the marginal heavy wet type. 

There is so much cold air up to our north and northeast that it could pounce at anytime with a meandering and weak jet. 

I hope I am wrong as I am now looking forward to some spring warmth and the first occasion to get the shorts out !

Don't know what the verification stats are for the good old GUT model, but more often than not it tends to show us what we want to see. :D

In the meantime the ECM is showing a cold incursion at +216 which could deliver the goods....?

image.thumb.gif.e346c3454cf14af927821ebf1e940b00.gif  image.thumb.gif.892864b3dba4a02bfb564c446cc6a7ba.gif

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12 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

We leave nothing to chance it will be 6-1 so the NAO AO, uppers, snow depth, SSW, the lot are considered:D

i'm expecting cold 18th march onwards, hope your hound likes the cold. We will see how often the gfs shows this cold in the next 7 days

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48 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Don't know what the verification stats are for the good old GUT model, but more often than not it tends to show us what we want to see. :D

In the meantime the ECM is showing a cold incursion at +216 which could deliver the goods....?

image.thumb.gif.e346c3454cf14af927821ebf1e940b00.gif  image.thumb.gif.892864b3dba4a02bfb564c446cc6a7ba.gif

If you are a fan of cold rain, yes! ?

As others have said I'm looking forward to a nice spring warm up now, doesn't look like much chance of that in the models at the moment... average is the word of the day it seems with above average rainfall... yuk!

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ECM again going for some very short-lived milder air next Saturday ahead of a nasty looking low

ECM1-168.thumb.GIF.55d67d5ebb681e14560f4d58ce58d2d6.GIFECM0-168.thumb.GIF.0b70068a37a503a88d1af2c61801332f.GIF

Very unsettled Mothers day across the UK and Ireland

ECM1-192.thumb.GIF.89d37e4e95b0831c62978c782ee6100a.GIFECM0-192.thumb.GIF.4257cf03924dac84dfce314a7027215d.GIF

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7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM again going for some very short-lived milder air next Saturday ahead of a nasty looking low

ECM1-168.thumb.GIF.55d67d5ebb681e14560f4d58ce58d2d6.GIFECM0-168.thumb.GIF.0b70068a37a503a88d1af2c61801332f.GIF

If this was to come off it would be exactly 10 years to the day after another deep low which passed over the country! Unusually deep for March from memory. 

Models do appear to be suggesting some sort of storm for next weekend but with finer details to be decided, including how deep it would be along with whether it would still have some remenants of the SSW effect with placement etc. 

 

 

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ECM fails to drag the low south during/after next weekend so the UK manages to avoid any desperately cold air on this run temps still a bit below normal but well up on the week just gone

ECM1-216.thumb.GIF.1e5ecd4b9af9a5713afff70907e997fb.GIFECM0-216.thumb.GIF.edd1533e478ce877af759620ba5de7dd.GIF

ECM1-240.thumb.GIF.f5bd92288b319d0a626dfcfe4538ae45.GIFECM0-240.thumb.GIF.7874413410aa8ecef91e94092fe58cd3.GIF

Edited by Summer Sun
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Spring at least the start is going to be miserable... it’s fairly clear it’s going to be a wetter than average month. The mountains of Scotland will continue to see snow, and maybe more areas of north at times. I’d rather we just get some spring warmth than it being 7C and wet and cool. Don’t see any real appetite for real cold. Well what can you expect it’s March anything from the north is still going to pack a punch, as we see maximum arctic sea ice extent seen in early March? I’m happy with how the winter went following ‘beast’, made up 5 year wait. :) 

EB00BD00-F850-44B9-AB60-91C928E3E33D.thumb.jpeg.551b3dbdc363f5d4c5bee5076715103f.jpegB16449BB-42E5-472C-B1CC-0BAA81154325.thumb.jpeg.7536139ed8edb78084155c1a8f88f6e7.jpeg

Edited by Daniel*
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Just now, Daniel* said:

Spring at least the start is going to be miserable... it’s fairly clear it’s going to be a wetter than average month. The mountains of Scotland will continue to see snow, and maybe more areas of north at times. I’d rather we just get some spring warmth than it being 7C and wet and cool. Don’t see any real appetite for real cold. Well what can you expect it’s March anything from the north is still going to pack a punch, as we see maximum arctic sea ice extent seen in early March? I’m happy with how the winter went following ‘beast’, made up 5 year wait. :) 

EB00BD00-F850-44B9-AB60-91C928E3E33D.thumb.jpeg.551b3dbdc363f5d4c5bee5076715103f.jpegB16449BB-42E5-472C-B1CC-0BAA81154325.thumb.jpeg.7536139ed8edb78084155c1a8f88f6e7.jpeg

I agree, it's been a momentum week for weather, but if we are now going to get low after low tracking across the UK keeping temperatures below average for weeks I feel we will all go mad and be wanting warmer weather

A very long road to spring showing on the models today 

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Evening all :)

A rare weekend drop into the model thread - my eye was drawn by this:

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

A lot of rain for parts of the south and south west over the next 10 days and more than 3 inches of rain before the start of Cheltenham - soft ground perhaps ?

ECM and GEM deepen a single centre to the SW and we get a brief pull of SSW'ly winds so a transient spring.

Interesting to look at the far reaches of GEFS 12Z and see plenty of members at renewed amplification to the NW and NE so a final kick from winter before month end can't be ruled out.

 

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Great cold spell - epic, but what now?  With the jet stream well south, here at T48 on GFS:

gfs-5-48.png?12

...and no clear block to the north, the UK seemingly faces an on- going cement-mixer scenario of flabby low pressures churning up a fest of horrid cold rain with the occasional flake of snow:

gfs-0-120.png?12

 

gfs-0-150.png?12

If it's the price to pay for the week just gone, then so be it!

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Great cold spell - epic, but what now?  With the jet stream well south, here at T48 on GFS:

gfs-5-48.png?12

...and no clear block to the north, the UK seemingly faces an on- going cement-mixer scenario of flabby low pressures churning up a fest of horrid cold rain with the occasional flake of snow:

gfs-0-120.png?12

 

gfs-0-150.png?12

If it's the price to pay for the week just gone, then so be it!

I think it’s worth watching for sudden height rises to our north seems fairly sterile. Perhaps more northern latitude blocking may fill the void, I think what scuppered our cold spell from being even more prolonged. Was the monstrous blocking, I really think it’s small, thin, areas of blocking, but well located that deliver longer lasting cold. No one can say with confidence that’s the end of it for the south in terms of snow, I’d like to also comment how excellently the models performed on the run up to cold spell. Well in advance. We did see it push back a little but overall very impressive. It is a shame to see the excitement seen in this thread, die down, it seems the chase itself is 90% of it and before we know it it’s here and all over with. I can’t moan I had snow every single day and powder from Monday to Friday. Worth the long hours I would say, we still are seeing the effects of SSW maybe interest will develop soon. 

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3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I think it’s worth watching for sudden height rises to our north seems fairly sterile. Perhaps more northern latitude blocking may fill the void, I think what scuppered our cold spell from being even more prolonged. Was the monstrous blocking, I really think it’s small, thin, areas of blocking, but well located that deliver longer lasting cold. No one can say with confidence that’s the end of it for the south in terms of snow, I’d like to also comment how excellently the models performed on the run up to cold spell. Well in advance. We did see it push back a little but overall very impressive. It is a shame to see the excitement seen in this thread, die down, it seems the chase itself is 90% of it and before we know it it’s here and all over with. I can’t moan I had snow every single day and powder from Monday to Friday. Worth the long hours I would say, we still are seeing the effects of SSW maybe interest will develop soon. 

Looking through some of the ECM members going out to middle month, I'd certainly argue the one thing I don't see is warmth or mild SW'lies. Plenty of blocking to the North and NW and plenty showing LP over Europe so E'lies and NE'lies as well so we aren't done with winter at all.

Yes, we won't see anything on the remarkable scale of -15 uppers from the last few days but you only need -5 uppers for snow at sea level and sometimes a little warmer than that under the right circumstances and snow at the end of March, even in the south, is not impossible by any stretch.

I think it highly likely we'll get a quick taste of spring before the next burst of something colder around or just after mid month.

I'm more concerned if the GFS 12Z OP verifies and the amounts of rainfall forecast on top of melting snow could be problematic for south western areas.

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12z London ECM ens has pretty solid agreement right until day 9

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.7b5d494483ea09bbe0f77e6abb535c86.png

Central belt has good agreement until the 9th then a split develops

graphe_ens3_php1.thumb.png.322ed6e565396b0feecbf92670dee034.png

Further opportunities for snow in Scotland and on the hills and mountains in the north during next week

Maybe something to lower levels further south later next weekend but nothing on the scale we've seen this week

:)

Edited by Summer Sun
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Evening I was born in the great month of March  and it's  a volatile outlook just like me but can be true and kind as well as unpredictable but true at the same time ,the models are now resting between the next onslaught of stormy weather and perhaps cold ,snowing again here , but really can't wait for spring  now:)

h850t850eu-10.png

ecmt850.192-1.png

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http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&ville=Londres

The 12Z ENs for London so it looks as though there will be a cooler midweek before a warming through next weekend after which there's plenty of scatter. Plenty of rain from later next week onward with the 850s oscillating around zero so temperatures close to normal for London.

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Looks like the models are now firming up on a lot of unsettled often colder than average conditions for the next 10-14 days, with no jet stream to steer the weather could be a lot of rain around with snow confined to hills in the north and sometimes further south but low ground will need to hope for fronts encroaching into colder air. I’m ready for some spring warmth now and I’m off for a taste of it in Cyprus a balmy 22oC there next week and I’m flying Wednesday. 

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First post in here for a while as I have been concentrating on the regionals - can't think why lol. I really think the models are now in a holding state of flux at the moment. A post ssw regaining of equilibrium that the models will struggle with. The latest gfs 18z highlights this perfectly imo. I really wouldn't be surprised to see some very cold runs crop up out of nowhere in the next few days. 

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By and large rain will be the primary form of precipitation across all areas away from hills in the north. GFS 18Z advertises possibie widespread snow threat these will be fleeting, across board we’re seeing models swing up lows from the SW to NE there is a chance at times for air to be cold enough, what with jet stream unusually south for snow to fall on the northern flank. I would not be expecting anything powdery! 

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Edited by Daniel*
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7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

By and large rain will be the primary form of precipitation across all areas away from hills in the north. GFS 18Z advertises possibie widespread snow threat these will be fleeting, across board we’re seeing models swing up lows from the SW to NE there is a chance at times for air to be cold enough, what with jet stream unusually south for snow to fall on the northern flank. I would not be expecting anything powdery! 

3AF51731-01D4-476E-AC9F-10C21FB711E7.thumb.png.6879f624c1735e91e62ebcda0016b3a9.pngE70E5B9D-8435-4BEC-9404-E5A7A3DB436E.thumb.png.6f684da3ec75e56d79e31e5d2d03ee1f.png4F37BEAE-B2A6-45FE-99BC-D5AAE96CEBD6.thumb.png.333d63acf35dd6a704b232eabd68b5c4.png

You're making no allowance for increasing insolation dan , the strength of the sun now is going to obliterate anything now apart from fleeting events .

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I swear this used to be the model output discussion thread once upon a time...

Just deleted 15 posts. Stay on topic please.

Edited by Nick L
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