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Paul

Model output discussion - the beast arrives

Paul

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Message added by Paul

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LOL! Anyone fancy a nice blizzard again next Sunday?

image.thumb.png.334113f8070d4d92c91fa2c6e77842c7.pngimage.thumb.png.10e5be1ff5a4b5385c4b4a53642154f5.png

EA / SE in the frame :D

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For the south, temps recover quite well from Sunday with some places back into double figures a slow recovery further north with Scotland holding onto the coldest temps

ukmaxtemp5.thumb.png.9094b412d610469df36b73cc39804cbd.pngukmaxtemp.thumb.png.2a190244cc275277efee39f0326b03c6.png

ukmaxtemp1.thumb.png.7338df9f409251c960b7565de596b24b.pngukmaxtemp2.thumb.png.5cb6a8289490aa6539a9522ac708f3f4.png

ukmaxtemp3.thumb.png.993d96e31dfc33b4df9abc80b8df12b4.pngukmaxtemp4.thumb.png.bd43c1c62a5caf715db43b53de54b88a.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

You've read it the wrong way round :D. So its describing where the 4c isotherm is. So for many of the members this roughly goes as far south as the humber. But some extend the colder temperatures down towards the M4 corridor. The title is probably confusing so I've changed it. Basically this is saying that the 06z had more members were the colder maximums are further south.
image.thumb.png.c9c2f3d7dd6575bbbfc338c1c83ad98a.png
 

Thanks - I thought that I knew what it meant looking at charts but wasn't 100%

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20 minutes ago, SNMartyn said:

No offence, but you said the same thing earlier in the week about Friday (Today)...

You seem to want to put the heater on continually IMO.

Whilst I did say Friday had some less cold air up moving up from the south (which what NMM showed at the time) I also talked about a significant snow event in the south-west which is what ICON was showing

Then again I said less cold air moving up during the weekend which is exactly what is happening timings maybe not dead on accurate but the less cold air arriving around this weekend was consistent from many of the models for around 5 days

Clearly many were expecting this cold air to hang around for a long time but it wasn't to be with one low-pressure system pushing it all north after giving a major snow event in the south-west

Edited by Summer Sun

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54 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I wonder if cold and snow fatigue are setting in!

The last soap opera went on for quite a few days and perhaps people don’t have the energy to embark on another rollercoaster.

The GFS 06 hrs run develops a bit more upstream amplitude later on and the net result is a stronger push south of colder air which engages low pressure moving ene.

 

Yes a few minor tweaks to both ecm and gfs in the 144 to192 range and another snowstorm would be on the cards for the south

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Morning all :)

With a change to less cold conditions on the horizon - I wouldn't call 6-7c in early March "mild" but there will be those ramping up any improvement as a transition to spring - it's my turn to look at the medium term trends taking us out to Monday March 12th this morning.

Starting as always with ECM 00Z at T+240:

ECM1-240.GIF?02-12

Perhaps a sign of something more seasonal as the Azores HP moves into France (noting the LP further south). LP is further north and north west leaving the British Isles in a SW'ly flow with drier and warmer conditions in the south but the north remains colder and more changeable.

GEM 00Z OP at T+240:

gem-0-240.png?00

An LP over France has left a residual light E'ly flow over southern Britain but the Azores HP is moving in and with LP in the Atlantic you'd think there would soon be a reversion to milder SW'ly air but there remains a strong cold ridge over Scandinavia so an alternative evolution might be to an enhanced HP over or close to the British Isles.

GFS 00Z OP at T+240:

gfs-0-240.png

Not too disisimilar an evolution with LP to the NW and SE and HP to the South and NE leaving the British Isles in a SW'ly airflow. Further into FI, as the Azores HP migrates east, pressure falls over the Azores and heights rise to the north leaving the British Isles in a much colder NE'ly airflow.

GFS 00Z Control at T+240:

gens-0-1-240.png

Not too far from the OP but with HP closer to the British Isles keeping the south in particular fine. Further into FI, a lobe of HP breaks from the main Azores cell and moves North then NE to the north and west of the British isles before slowing and intensifying over Scandinavia ushering in a colder E'ly airflow with -12 uppers knocking on the door of the east coast by T+384.

The GEFS 00Z at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

A real mixed bag - one or two interesting features including some Members keeping low heights over Europe. I would consider the OP and Control on the milder side of the suite looking at the collective at this time.

With the passage of time we now have the GFS 06Z OP at T=240:

gfs-0-240.png?6

Continuing the theme of trying to build the Azores HP back in against the trough and much colder air to the north. Further into FI and a brief milder air is reversed as the LP starts slipping south toward the British Isles and introduces a PM flow from the NW.

GFS 06Z Control at T+240:

gens-0-1-240.png

A much more disturbed evolution with LP in charge and the British Isles in a cool if not cold NW'ly. Further into FI the Control builds heights over Scandinavia and a cold ENE'ly sets up but the north would be dry and fine,

The GEFS for 06Z at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

A growing number of members sniffing out something colder from the NE as lower heights drop into Europe and pressure rises from the NW.

In summary, the evolution from winter to spring remains long, drawn out and uncertain. This week's extremely frigid air will be history for most by Monday but it's a real struggle to bring in more seasonal conditions so several more days of below average temperatures seem probable. There are hints approaching mid month of a greater influence of the Azores HP but equally after mid month there are a number of options for renewed colder attacks from the east or north-east.

Snow or wintry conditions later in March wouldn't be unusual so it would be unwise to assume winter is done with us yet or that spring is just round the corner. It wouldn't be at all surprising to see a final burst of winter before the end of the month.

 

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2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

I wonder if cold and snow fatigue are setting in!

The last soap opera went on for quite a few days and perhaps people don’t have the energy to embark on another rollercoaster.

The GFS 06 hrs run develops a bit more upstream amplitude later on and the net result is a stronger push south of colder air which engages low pressure moving ene.

 

LOL - fatigued yes Nick! But always up for another round. :laugh:

Probably around mid May before I give up on the cold and even then a swift northerly blast and unexpected snowfall would be a delight to me..:good:

EDIT: He says as another bout of snow streaks in front of my window on that gorgeous easterly having changed over now from earlirer rain / graupel and the tempdropping back from a brief 0C to -1C. :D

Edited by Purga

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3 hours ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

GFS F1 shows bitterly cold air flooding down from the North with a snow risk of just about anywhere. Zero sign of spring yet - maybe this year will be knows as "The Winter That Never Ended".... :yahoo:

h850t850eu.pnguksnowrisk.pngukmintemp.png

I assume the models factor in the increasing strength of the Sun?

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

For the south, temps recover quite well from Sunday with some places back into double figures a slow recovery further north with Scotland holding onto the coldest temps

ukmaxtemp5.thumb.png.9094b412d610469df36b73cc39804cbd.pngukmaxtemp.thumb.png.2a190244cc275277efee39f0326b03c6.png

ukmaxtemp1.thumb.png.7338df9f409251c960b7565de596b24b.pngukmaxtemp2.thumb.png.5cb6a8289490aa6539a9522ac708f3f4.png

ukmaxtemp3.thumb.png.993d96e31dfc33b4df9abc80b8df12b4.pngukmaxtemp4.thumb.png.bd43c1c62a5caf715db43b53de54b88a.png

arpegeuk-41-56-0.png?02-12

Not quite as warm on this model thou is it? 

 

 

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12z ICON is getting the less cold air further north a little bit quicker than the 06z

06z

icon-1-87.thumb.png.d66ce6d8190ad3e483f08e0ffa8b49d3.pngicon-9-87.thumb.png.151ce7d8d45c808085fd45e4f2394fd3.png

12z

icon-1-81.thumb.png.dfba009e60a3e4ec7d462850dce24578.pngicon-9-81.thumb.png.0a6e49a571ce0db7ac2c8e6069dd6b18.png

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well, as i sit here and watch my first decent snowfall of this week and the whole winter, the day before the warm-up... the good news is, the CFS is going for decent blocking as we go into december :D

cfsnh-0-6672.thumb.png.f11cd9888a2044d1c1c8ff6693252aa7.png

only 6672hrs away...

Edited by bobbydog

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5 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The onset of this pattern was complicated by the MJO phase high amp phase 7 and into 8 forecast 

the Scandi high modelled could well have been due to this rather than the SSW downwelling wave 

it’s possible that gfs/gefs was in the ball park due to its MJO  forecast (I think this is probably true) whereas icon and eps were seeing an SSW response. It’s very murky looking for reasons and we will likely never  know.

So, reading between the lines, you seem to suggest that the SSW effects could possibly be felt mid-late March?

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4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

well, as i sit here and watch my first decent snowfall of this week and the whole winter, the day before the warm-up... the good news is, the CFS is going for decent blocking as we go into december :D

cfsnh-0-6672.thumb.png.f11cd9888a2044d1c1c8ff6693252aa7.png

only 6672hrs away...

borderline FI...?

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Just now, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

borderline FI...?

just out of the reliable maybe...

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5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

well, as i sit here and watch my first decent snowfall of this week and the whole winter, the day before the warm-up... the good news is, the CFS is going for decent blocking as we go into december :D

cfsnh-0-6672.thumb.png.f11cd9888a2044d1c1c8ff6693252aa7.png

only 6672hrs away...

If you ever feel useless just remember the CFS runs four times a day... 

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Second run in a row to show widespread snow next weekend 

F4BD2708-D627-43B6-AC49-C981B34A3597.png

808FC690-A39B-4CF5-9F29-B80BF7A52845.png

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Just now, Tim Bland said:

Second run in a row to show widespread snow next weekend 

F4BD2708-D627-43B6-AC49-C981B34A3597.png

808FC690-A39B-4CF5-9F29-B80BF7A52845.png

I'm looking at the GFS this afternoon and I'm thinking spring doesn't look to be turning up any time soon.

h500slp.png

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After a less cold week for most GFS 12z gives another spell of colder air with the chance of some snow next weekend

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.74ae9c93f7aaa036c04f8ce817a1d5b3.pngprectypeuktopo1.thumb.png.ea6b9bc3b370ccc6b4a5868ba015c766.png

ukmaxtemp1.thumb.png.25dccc8cd451adcb68ca31b966f0f66a.pngukmaxtemp12.thumb.png.39407959b754210e86d445064ae7964a.png

GEM has similar thoughts for next weekend with a short period of colder air and the chance of some snow

gem-0-192.thumb.png.e59c08d1e1bcfaa37135c4b7ee6f6183.pnggem-0-216.thumb.png.48d3d62667b7bb52e4989e046bcb274b.pnggem-0-240.thumb.png.568b8a90d4145bf82f127febf89b02d1.png

 

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28 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

well, as i sit here and watch my first decent snowfall of this week and the whole winter, the day before the warm-up... the good news is, the CFS is going for decent blocking as we go into december :D

cfsnh-0-6672.thumb.png.f11cd9888a2044d1c1c8ff6693252aa7.png

only 6672hrs away...

Only 9 months away getting closer to the reliable each day :D.

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A number of things strike me regarding model watching leading up to this epic spell of weather.  In no particular order:

We have a lot of new toys at our disposal since the last freeze up like this, in terms of the shorter range higher resolution models, ARPEGE HIRLAM ICON-EU and AROME, this is the first chance to evaluate their performance in true snow conditions inc. convection.  HIRLAM wins for me, it had the best representation of the convective snowfall earlier in the week, and a really good track on storm Emma.

This was what I joined Netweather for, taken some time, but like all the rest of you who saw the way the wind was blowing when the split SSW showed itself, the chase down to T0 was a sensational roller-coaster ride (I only used to post very occasionally before this!).  Thanks to everyone for their knowledge, stickability, and humour!

Re the way forward, there seems to be low pressures in our vicinity north of the  jet stream, not clear where these will go, GFS 12z

gfs-0-162.png?12

gfs-5-162.png?12

There maybe still a moose loose!

 

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Be interesting to see the full ens sets later.as Again the op run shows us remaining  in this cold upper trough into next week with the jet well south.Yesterday's 12z gefs weren't that warm at the surface for many further north especially, with 2mt temps with low single figures for Scotland.

Inevitably less cold from the south by Sunday as the Siberian flow is cut off but without the Atlantic jet pushing mild south westerlies through there is only some modification of the upper air.

With 850's  still between zero and -5C south to north for the foreseeable cold is never far away .

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