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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
    26 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

    I can never read these what does it show mate?

    Not entirely sure but might be a south east moving depression with the 528 dam line wrapped around it. Could indicate snow possibilities.

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    Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

    First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

    See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    image.thumb.png.da8fbccb234a64cf7d42463854e11dd9.png

    Swingometer for the 18z GEFS on sunday. No change but still a small number of cold runs there and Scotland + the far north of england still remain very cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    26 minutes ago, Lee Jones said:

    9 degrees in Norwich on Sunday according to the BBC. The warming is going to be more rapid than is being suggested by the charts maybe? Had pretty much everywhere above freezing. 4-5 Newcastle and Edinburgh. Wind arrows more southerly than south easterly. 

    I don't trust them with regard to precipitation, I do with temps.

    People were pinning their hopes on one ecm run:oops:

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
  • Location: Aldborough, North Norfolk
    1 hour ago, TEITS said:

    Nobody notice the fax for Tues chart!

    fax120s.gif

    Long time since I've been here, but what do I see in the T120 Fax? 

    Well the wind draw IS across the continent, but the 992 over Southern and Eastern England isobar comes from Italy, not from Siberia.

    The 528 height is way up, just north of the border with Scotland, there is a long way to the 546 height line, but looking at that, I'd say Easterly winds, cool but not cold, showers (rain in the south possible sleet/snow in the north), mainly cloudy and pretty yuk weather for March

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Reading from afar in Austria where an enjoyable week's skiing has been tempered by the fact I've missed out on a memorable week of UK weather where more snow has fallen than I've seen.

    Keeping up on here  with what was happening regarding the expected  longevity, hoping I was going to see some of it on my return tomorrow, I was disappointed to read that the GFS at first was going it alone with spressing mild up from the south.

    Am I right in thinking now that for all the 'ignore it cos of its bias' posts, on this occasion at least it seems to have led the way?

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    8 hours ago, lassie23 said:

    People were pinning their hopes on one ecm run:oops:

    thankfully not too many. 

    we do need to bring some context back into here re descriptions on temps. when we say cold, we mean about 4/5c. that’s not supportive of snow away from elevation. the point being that I see no sign of anything resembling spring in the outlook  . Staying chilly to cold. Yes, some days could reach double figures with sunshine but generally suppressed temps. 

    We have our residual upper ridge that comes back east once the reversal has run through (days 8/10). currently not certain how that plays out. We have more amplification approaching mid month. Ec 46 keen on high heights to our west and low to our east post week 2. Europe stays cold beyond Easter. that seems reasonable given we have further downwelling waves to work through the atmosphere.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.
  • Weather Preferences: Storms frost snow heatwaves
  • Location: Cork, Ireland.

    Next week looking ordinarily chilly according to the latest Ecm run with daytime values typically in the 4-7 degrees Celsius range but potential for any further March extremities looking increasing unlikely now judging by days 9 and 10 B6E081D8-F732-417C-BC75-23569653928B.thumb.jpeg.ee11aabb7c8e3d294bf713da5d3c663c.jpeg

    BA46058E-C81A-4D7C-A8F5-B3A1089A19E8.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Models showing a predominantly unsettled cold outlook especially in the north, with strong heights to the NW and a very slow moving trough anchored over the UK, low pressure sat limpet just to our SW with frontal activity wrapped around it, bringing a mix of rain, sleet and snow. The snow becoming confined to northern parts over the weekend and higher ground mainly through first part of next week. Later in the week, could see some trough disruption and generally the trough looks like sinking SE which would bring colder uppers back in on its northern flank, a further snow event in the north and central parts could occur, despite the loss of the very cold uppers we have now - a wet snowfall rather than the dry one we had. Indeed charts do look very similiar to 8-10 December.

    Longer term - no obvious signal for azores high to ridge in again or westerlies to return, could be a notably cold March ahead. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Looks like a bit of a stalemate for a while with the trough locked over the UK and high pressure to the nw.

    So not really spring weather and not really that cold. The jet is still running towards Africa and there is cold to tap into further north if the pattern is edged further se.

    Northern parts of the UK could well see a bit more snow.

    In the shorter timeframe a bit more snow tonight, then a few fronts heading ne during the weekend with a wintry mix but more likely snow the further north you go especially with a bit of elevation .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    UKMO out to next Thursday shows no more bitterly cold air after the last of it clears north during Sunday whilst no proper spring warmth is in sight yet temperatures will recover from what we have had this week

    UW72-7.thumb.GIF.69c409768758625686bbacc03ee01066.GIFUW96-7.thumb.GIF.1d5a926127a17e07bb6ccf4de99aa914.GIF

    UW120-7.thumb.GIF.7ce0059e28862df255d338cc3e772d27.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.bdc249b528b9d69d7c730aeb7f0d29a6.GIF

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Boston Spa
  • Location: Boston Spa
    2 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

    GFS F1 shows bitterly cold air flooding down from the North with a snow risk of just about anywhere. Zero sign of spring yet - maybe this year will be knows as "The Winter That Never Ended".... :yahoo:

    h850t850eu.pnguksnowrisk.pngukmintemp.png

    Wasn`t it the GFS who picked up this cold spell way back also?

    Not out of the question again on the back of the 2nd SSW perhaps, buckle up! 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    10 minutes ago, Always a red said:

    Wasn`t it the GFS who picked up this cold spell way back also?

    Not out of the question again on the back of the 2nd SSW perhaps, buckle up! 

    4 runs a day out to day 16

    poor continuity beyond day 11/12 (unsurprisingly)

    gfs will be the first model to pick everything out and arpege the last !!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    17 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

    GFS F1 shows bitterly cold air flooding down from the North with a snow risk of just about anywhere. Zero sign of spring yet - maybe this year will be knows as "The Winter That Never Ended".... :yahoo:

    h850t850eu.pnguksnowrisk.pngukmintemp.png

    Whilst it may show cold air racing down the chances of a chart 384 hours away actually happening is virtually nil

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    2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Whilst it may show cold air racing down the chances of a chart 384 hours away actually happening is virtually nil

    The GFS did excellent I might add in predicting this current spell we are in so far out. Granted it isn't Gospel, but it isn't to be dismissed either. 

    Spring is on hold. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Uckfield, Sussex
  • Location: Uckfield, Sussex
    5 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

    The GFS did excellent I might add in predicting this current spell we are in so far out. Granted it isn't Gospel, but it isn't to be dismissed either. 

    Spring is on hold. 

    GFS predicted it first (way out in FI), then backed off, then other models picked it up ... and backed off, while the GFS started bringing it back in. I think there's a lot of lessons to be learned (both for all of us here - including silent watchers like me - as well as for the folks running the models). Big thing I picked out of the last couple of weeks is that none of the models handle SSW-initiated events particularly well, especially through the mid-range. They started out getting it right in FI, got it wrong through the mid range, then corrected in the short range with a few flip-flops along the way.

    IIRC GFS was the first to spot the breakdown for this weekend as well?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    I wonder if cold and snow fatigue are setting in!

    The last soap opera went on for quite a few days and perhaps people don’t have the energy to embark on another rollercoaster.

    The GFS 06 hrs run develops a bit more upstream amplitude later on and the net result is a stronger push south of colder air which engages low pressure moving ene.

     

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
    43 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Whilst it may show cold air racing down the chances of a chart 384 hours away actually happening is virtually nil

    The  increased frequency of north and east winds is well known in the spring  especially up here where it can make for a seven month winter on the farm and so this chart is maybe not so far off the mark.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    33 minutes ago, Audaxian said:

    GFS predicted it first (way out in FI), then backed off, then other models picked it up ... and backed off, while the GFS started bringing it back in. I think there's a lot of lessons to be learned (both for all of us here - including silent watchers like me - as well as for the folks running the models). Big thing I picked out of the last couple of weeks is that none of the models handle SSW-initiated events particularly well, especially through the mid-range. They started out getting it right in FI, got it wrong through the mid range, then corrected in the short range with a few flip-flops along the way.

    IIRC GFS was the first to spot the breakdown for this weekend as well?

    The onset of this pattern was complicated by the MJO phase high amp phase 7 and into 8 forecast 

    the Scandi high modelled could well have been due to this rather than the SSW downwelling wave 

    it’s possible that gfs/gefs was in the ball park due to its MJO  forecast (I think this is probably true) whereas icon and eps were seeing an SSW response. It’s very murky looking for reasons and we will likely never  know.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    I wonder if cold and snow fatigue are setting in!

    The last soap opera went on for quite a few days and perhaps people don’t have the energy to embark on another rollercoaster.

    The GFS 06 hrs run develops a bit more upstream amplitude later on and the net result is a stronger push south of colder air which engages low pressure moving ene.

     

    Yes, this chart isn't too dissimilar to the ECM 12z from yesterday, I think there are a few reasons for the lack of appetite, there is still snow already on the ground in many places and people look at charts like this and think its tame compared to what we have just had, but once you get to mid march, convective showers even with very cold uppers may still melt in between showers in the day, so cyclonic NE'ly's are often the best in late March and april as you really want continuous heavy snowfall with big flakes in order to settle.

    gfsnh-0-216_pqi5.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
    29 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    I wonder if cold and snow fatigue are setting in!

    The last soap opera went on for quite a few days and perhaps people don’t have the energy to embark on another rollercoaster.

    The GFS 06 hrs run develops a bit more upstream amplitude later on and the net result is a stronger push south of colder air which engages low pressure moving ene.

     

    I think I probably speak for a few that now we are in March it takes a hell of a great set up to bring decent low lying snow.  I have had a few falls which either melted or just stuck for a day or so, so the thought of slushy borderline snow doesn't excite me now. I am looking for spring warmth. Haha. If a big Channel Low or a big exciting fall is forecast in the reliable then that would be pretty exciting but my choice now moves to warmth! :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    image.thumb.png.e1f66df7fcf438caac60c32fe7d73524.png

    Well even after 48 hours there is still uncertainty about how far north milder air will get, with more runs suggesting milder temperatures could be limited to the far south....

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    image.thumb.png.e1f66df7fcf438caac60c32fe7d73524.png

    Well even after 48 hours there is still uncertainty about how far north milder air will get, with more runs suggesting milder temperatures could be limited to the far south....

    Can I ask a question (might just be me being thick) but ive been looking at these for a while now, it says latitude where 2m temps FAIL to get above 4c on sunday, surely Scotland would have a lot more members that FAIL to get above 4c so surely they should be top of the league table not bottom.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Can I ask a question (might just be me being thick) but ive been looking at these for a while now, it says latitude where 2m temps FAIL to get above 4c on sunday, surely Scotland would have a lot more members that FAIL to get above 4c so surely they should be top of the league table not bottom.

    You've read it the wrong way round :D. So its describing where the 4c isotherm is. So for many of the members this roughly goes as far south as the humber. But some extend the colder temperatures down towards the M4 corridor. The title is probably confusing so I've changed it. Basically this is saying that the 06z had more members were the colder maximums are further south.
    image.thumb.png.c9c2f3d7dd6575bbbfc338c1c83ad98a.png
     

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    LOL! Anyone fancy a nice blizzard again next Sunday?

    image.thumb.png.334113f8070d4d92c91fa2c6e77842c7.pngimage.thumb.png.10e5be1ff5a4b5385c4b4a53642154f5.png

    EA / SE in the frame :D

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