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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    image.thumb.png.e8759916d2eb2c83a4defcd9cd53e886.png

    Updated the swingometer again and the volatile GFS continues once more with more runs extending the cold a bit further south.

    Expect more swings whilst storm emma approaches. I hope the GFS will sober up tomorrow morning and fall into line with the ECM! Subtle hints it may head that way...

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    Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

    First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

    See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Well so much for the talk of HIRLAM being onto something with the Eastward extent of frontal snow on the 12z, it corrected a long way West tonight in line with the other models

    hirlam-1-29-0.png?28-22

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    GFS 18z gives the south temps a bit closer to where you would expect for early spring on Sunday afternoon whilst in the north winter clings on

     

    IMG_20180228_234608.jpg

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
  • Location: West/East/Sussex Surrey border
    3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    Well so much for the talk of HIRLAM being onto something with the Eastward extent of frontal snow on the 12z, it corrected a long way West tonight in line with the other models

    hirlam-1-29-0.png?28-22

    Thats quite misleading when you run the whole sequence

     

    Yes its the 0200 chart

     

    overview_032.jpg?2018022818

    however 10am tomorrow

    overview_016.jpg?2018022818

    and 10am friday

    overview_040.jpg?2018022818

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    18z London mean shows a recovery in 850s during the weekend we the see a dip to around -5 peaking around the 8th before a rise back up to around 0

     

    gefsens850London0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
  • Location: Grays, Thurrock
    24 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    Well so much for the talk of HIRLAM being onto something with the Eastward extent of frontal snow on the 12z, it corrected a long way West tonight in line with the other models

    hirlam-1-29-0.png?28-22

    Mucka it hasn't your looking at T-29 chart, we are talking about tomorrow.

    HIRLAM showing below for midnight which matches radar (radar actually has the precip about 20 miles further north east). GFS way off is about 150 miles wrong at just T-6.

    hirlam-1-6-0.png?28-22

    Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

    was obvious most models were wrong at just t-3 this afternoon when none of them apart from HIRLAM had the streamer showing.

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    Posted
  • Location: Northampton
  • Location: Northampton

    Updated t24 fax is very different to the earlier t36. It has the low much deeper and further S with more energy going E through France

    t36 (12Z)

    fax36s.thumb.gif.21eb1b866ba3704baed5bdefc392fb6e.gif

    t24 (18Z)

    fax24s.thumb.gif.accab9de2c42f63e9b3e19b476c59dfd.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wednesbury, West Midlands. 500 Feet asl
  • Location: Wednesbury, West Midlands. 500 Feet asl

    precipitation would be further east ??

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    47 minutes ago, swilliam said:

    Updated t24 fax is very different to the earlier t36. It has the low much deeper and further S with more energy going E through France

    t36 (12Z)

    fax36s.thumb.gif.21eb1b866ba3704baed5bdefc392fb6e.gif

    t24 (18Z)

    fax24s.thumb.gif.accab9de2c42f63e9b3e19b476c59dfd.gif

    One is for 36 hours to midnight tomorrow the other is for 24 hours to 6 pm tomorrow so , the low moves more ne before turning more nw .

    The UKMO did modify their raw output but it was just to deepen the low.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Morning All

    2 key items of note this morning

    * All models agree on the Eastern track of the PPN today -still with varying degrees of moisture - however London is certainly now in the game as well as all the original areas

    * UKMO 00z now follows the ECM in terms of 500MB profiles & extending the cold all the way through the run, whats interesting ( almost incredible ) is the now, solid continuation of the E / SE convective flow for the N / NE part of the UK ( accompanied by low heights ) as well ad the continued risk of frontal weather pushing in from the S / SW turning to snow-

    The GFS will more than likely follow very soon...

    Yes I noticed that with the UKMO Steve-

    Even at day 5, most of the country sits in -2 to -6 upper air. I'm not sure what the profile of the air closer to the surface will be like by that point (extremely marginal I would guess) but the mean flow across the country is still E'ly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Like buses:D:D

    IMG_0664.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    ECM not quite as cold as it’s 12z turnaround was but still better than recent runs. Staying cold into next week. Wouldn’t take much of a tweak there.

    Stays even colder up north. Milder air moving up from south for all by Thursday. A very long way away though

    Edited by bradythemole
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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom

    Did someone say Groundhog Day? :rofl:

    9536DED2-127F-4722-9A9D-587C830ADF71.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge
    20 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

    Did someone say Groundhog Day? :rofl:

    9536DED2-127F-4722-9A9D-587C830ADF71.png

    If only it was January.

     

    Still.... Don't forget your booties, it's cooooold out there today.

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    Posted
  • Location: Knaphill, Surrey (57m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, big storms and extreme weather
  • Location: Knaphill, Surrey (57m ASL)
    15 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

    If only it was January.

     

    Still.... Don't forget your booties, it's cooooold out there today.

    “It’s cold out there every day”

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    Posted
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Crisp Cold Days
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m

    Obviously as you guys will be aware the north and north East have been getting absolutely Battered since Tuesday and this morning is no exception as heavy snow & increasing heavy winds is now bringing the increasing impact of snow drifts. My community on Addingham Moorside in West Yorkshire has been pretty much cut off since Tuesday. As Further heavy snow is forcast until at least dinner time today before a slight lull as SE winds kick in for a short time before shifting ENE again and bring more showers on Friday.. I would appreciate the opinions of some of the more experienced to give me there thoughts on the track of Storm Emma and how far north do you expect it to effect?? 

    Thanks in advance..  YP. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    39 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

    Did someone say Groundhog Day? :rofl:

    9536DED2-127F-4722-9A9D-587C830ADF71.png

    Wouldn't surprise me. IIRC the GFS was the first to hint at our current easterly way back in early Feb :)

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    7 hours ago, steveinsussex said:

    Thats quite misleading when you run the whole sequence

     

    Yes its the 0200 chart

     

    overview_032.jpg?2018022818

    however 10am tomorrow

    overview_016.jpg?2018022818

    and 10am friday

    overview_040.jpg?2018022818

    If you check the current radar it was the closest I believe 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    image.thumb.png.815bf1e698e2e5badd14bd8494af044b.png

    Ensemble swingometer updated and chaos still reigns supreme on the GFS, the picture still very unclear for later in the weekend!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    The ECM op has taken the coldest 850's north again compared to the 12z

    ECM0-96.thumb.GIF.97f3a55cc6427b6bf70b84dcb112d5d1.GIFECM0-120.thumb.GIF.d12794a36a9cb1b4f6c2268d8523ed96.GIF

    ECM0-144.thumb.GIF.0d70d8827f44e2768600947118b27553.GIFECM0-168.thumb.GIF.609024621331870df07784bd2d1d8082.GIF

    ECM0-192.thumb.GIF.2eb014b097ef615225616e44a9ff32e5.GIFECM0-216.thumb.GIF.2b8f6af2db817a115aeb15175ab26526.GIF

    Now the London ENS to see the support generally the Op is on the warm side of the mean with the general idea of the mean remaining between -3 and -5 as it has done for a number of days now

    graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.81845514c2c23909e4230cc5104e3b87.png

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Well to the weather 6-14 days ahead

    The ECMWF-GFS output this morning seems pretty similar to its output yesterday morning

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    A rather more pronounced trough perhaps, especially on EC. Both still showing cold contours over the UK, parts still under the 528 DM line, so no real change in type other than the really frigid upper air over the past few days is unlikely to return, still cold at 500 mb though, and still showing unsettled on these two models.

    NOAA last evening and its 6-10 shows slowly declining signals for the deep cold and blocking of the last few days. Again though pretty cold air aloft still showing and with a broad upper trough over the UK.

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

    On the 8-14 output it keeps its idea from the last 2-3 days, that is of a more westerly looking flow, but again no real signal for spring.http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

     

     

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    37 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    image.thumb.png.815bf1e698e2e5badd14bd8494af044b.png

    Ensemble swingometer updated and chaos still reigns supreme on the GFS, the picture still very unclear for later in the weekend!

    GFS now has temperatures up to 13C in northern France and BeNeLux region by Monday. That would be a very quick arrival of Spring to those areas but it doesn't seem likely  to happen IMO

    Edited by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts
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    Message added by Paul

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