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Paul

Model output discussion - the beast arrives

Paul

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

ICON although a bit further south it hasn't followed  ECM so far

icon-1-120.thumb.png.9d990a25ef76f38644d6cfb4bfa80cb3.pngECM0-120.thumb.GIF.86d407c9e94b033ef06176edc9d2c33b.GIF

Yeah, but it's earlier evolution was more ECM like. Given the differences so early probably not even worth looking past day 4.

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Early stages of GFS 18z looks like the low to the south-west is slightly deeper

gfs-0-36.thumb.png.d5312f8d1f9b6cf8e0986417fe646453.pnggfs-1-36.thumb.png.135416186fecc6f406795c3e00d21eb2.png

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I still wouldn’t put much ‘£’ on where this low is going to track and how.

18z has it slightly further east and a bit more north now?

 

6EA83CA9-3B9B-4C6F-AB64-13B567BF0E14.png

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What a day the models really have dealt with this very well I feel... currently we have the greatest snaw shower ever kicking off in Aberdeenshire a truly epic stunning day, and with the models showing plenty more action to come this could go down as one of the all time great events for late feb.. 

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1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

overview_041.jpg?2018022818

Chris Fawkes favours this model over ECM 12z and some others models for the way it handles the low it could bring the snow in earlier for the southwestern portion of the UK

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t90 and GFS 18z shifts the coldest 850's a bit further north compared to the 12z

18z                                                                   12z

gfs-1-90.thumb.png.b84c381dab7f5f132eb563b0bc676f06.pnggfs-1-96.thumb.png.5ec0bb03fbbf5da49b60f0c440b60888.png

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I know this is in the early timeframes but perhaps differences in issues to our east might be why we got a very different ECM run.

ECM1-48.GIF?28-0

Note the cold pool to our east, it splits in two with a porton heading west which interacts with the parent low to our south west which pulls the secondary feauture east and to the south of the UK keeping us cold.

Now the GFS

gfs-0-42.png?18

It has the cold pool as one distinct feature which sits over Eastern Europe. At this point most models take the GFS route, if the ECM however is correct then suddenly we have an area of cold air which will interact the the low near the Azores and act as a conduit to pull the low eastwards and prolong the cold for many parts of the UK.

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GFS doesn't follow the ECM but I looked at 20 ECM ensemble members and I'd say 12 back the OP in ejecting a low east from storm Irma and into the channel during saturday.

So that level of support indicates it may have picked up something.

This synoptic pattern is extremely slack and we have two low pressures dancing around each other so I agree that this is a nowcasting event.

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No big early move from the GFS towards the ECM but into the run a different low set up towards day 6 and more similar to it at that stage.

 

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GFS already wrong with wind direction over SE and northern extent of precip over N France by T+3 so difficult to give it credence from there on.

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No big early move from the GFS towards the ECM but into the run a different low set up towards day 6 and more similar to it at that stage.

 

Nick if you compare the the latest precip radar now and to what the models showed you can see that the band of precip is already allot further east than the models have it.

lol what chino said 

Edited by Tom Jarvis

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Just now, Tom Jarvis said:

Nick if you compare the the latest precip radar now and to what the models showed you can see that the band of precip is already allot further east than the models have it 

Great news then the GFS is wrong from early on! :)

Even with that it starts trying to angle more energy se at day 6.  

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I don't necessarily trust the ECM tonight but historically over the years we have seen expected mild inroads to hit the buffers as blocks and orientations have kept the cold in place. But not at such short notice with the modern models capabilities. 

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9 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I don't necessarily trust the ECM tonight but historically over the years we have seen expected mild inroads to hit the buffers as blocks and orientations have kept the cold in place. But not at such short notice with the modern models capabilities. 

Maybe the whole suite is skewed. The control follows the mean and they are in cluster 2 which isn’t far behind cluster 1. 

Meanwhile, arpege and hirlam are both very keeen on substantial snow across much of England and Wales next 48 hours. 

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SO a track east is keeping majority of it out of wales then? or will it move the other area of perc thats out to the irish sea into wales?

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Monopoly. Nope wales still gets it. Dont worry about that.

Hirlam Arpege etc still see south central wales and south east wales get 10-20cm

Edited by PompeyFC

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T96 fax follows ukmo  (in case anyone expected Exeter to take the ec op seriously at this juncture)

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1 minute ago, PompeyFC said:

Monopoly. Nope wales still gets it. Dont worry about that.

Hirlam Arpege etc still see south central wales and south east wales get 10-20cm

I am to the east of swansea , meteox which I think uses ECM has a snow , rain , snow , rain event on friday night and saturday morning? models are really struggling so perhaps the boundry line is a very fine one between the bristol channel and mid wales

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Situations like this are a Nowcast tomorrow to be honest. I think precip is showing in France on netweather radar at the mo. So best bet is to keep your eye on that and try and map it onto model predictions 

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