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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

    ICON although a bit further south it hasn't followed  ECM so far

    icon-1-120.thumb.png.9d990a25ef76f38644d6cfb4bfa80cb3.pngECM0-120.thumb.GIF.86d407c9e94b033ef06176edc9d2c33b.GIF

    Yeah, but it's earlier evolution was more ECM like. Given the differences so early probably not even worth looking past day 4.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nutts Corner
  • Location: Nutts Corner

    I still wouldn’t put much ‘£’ on where this low is going to track and how.

    18z has it slightly further east and a bit more north now?

     

    6EA83CA9-3B9B-4C6F-AB64-13B567BF0E14.png

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    What a day the models really have dealt with this very well I feel... currently we have the greatest snaw shower ever kicking off in Aberdeenshire a truly epic stunning day, and with the models showing plenty more action to come this could go down as one of the all time great events for late feb.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

    overview_041.jpg?2018022818

    Chris Fawkes favours this model over ECM 12z and some others models for the way it handles the low it could bring the snow in earlier for the southwestern portion of the UK

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    t90 and GFS 18z shifts the coldest 850's a bit further north compared to the 12z

    18z                                                                   12z

    gfs-1-90.thumb.png.b84c381dab7f5f132eb563b0bc676f06.pnggfs-1-96.thumb.png.5ec0bb03fbbf5da49b60f0c440b60888.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cottingham
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Cottingham

    GFS doesn't follow the ECM but I looked at 20 ECM ensemble members and I'd say 12 back the OP in ejecting a low east from storm Irma and into the channel during saturday.

    So that level of support indicates it may have picked up something.

    This synoptic pattern is extremely slack and we have two low pressures dancing around each other so I agree that this is a nowcasting event.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    No big early move from the GFS towards the ECM but into the run a different low set up towards day 6 and more similar to it at that stage.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    GFS already wrong with wind direction over SE and northern extent of precip over N France by T+3 so difficult to give it credence from there on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    No big early move from the GFS towards the ECM but into the run a different low set up towards day 6 and more similar to it at that stage.

     

    Nick if you compare the the latest precip radar now and to what the models showed you can see that the band of precip is already allot further east than the models have it.

    lol what chino said 

    Edited by Tom Jarvis
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    Just now, Tom Jarvis said:

    Nick if you compare the the latest precip radar now and to what the models showed you can see that the band of precip is already allot further east than the models have it 

    Great news then the GFS is wrong from early on! :)

    Even with that it starts trying to angle more energy se at day 6.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    I don't necessarily trust the ECM tonight but historically over the years we have seen expected mild inroads to hit the buffers as blocks and orientations have kept the cold in place. But not at such short notice with the modern models capabilities. 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    9 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    I don't necessarily trust the ECM tonight but historically over the years we have seen expected mild inroads to hit the buffers as blocks and orientations have kept the cold in place. But not at such short notice with the modern models capabilities. 

    Maybe the whole suite is skewed. The control follows the mean and they are in cluster 2 which isn’t far behind cluster 1. 

    Meanwhile, arpege and hirlam are both very keeen on substantial snow across much of England and Wales next 48 hours. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

    Monopoly. Nope wales still gets it. Dont worry about that.

    Hirlam Arpege etc still see south central wales and south east wales get 10-20cm

    Edited by PompeyFC
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    Posted
  • Location: Port Toilet
  • Location: Port Toilet
    1 minute ago, PompeyFC said:

    Monopoly. Nope wales still gets it. Dont worry about that.

    Hirlam Arpege etc still see south central wales and south east wales get 10-20cm

    I am to the east of swansea , meteox which I think uses ECM has a snow , rain , snow , rain event on friday night and saturday morning? models are really struggling so perhaps the boundry line is a very fine one between the bristol channel and mid wales

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    Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

    Situations like this are a Nowcast tomorrow to be honest. I think precip is showing in France on netweather radar at the mo. So best bet is to keep your eye on that and try and map it onto model predictions 

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in here! 
    Other options:
    Model moans, ramps and banter
    Regional discussions

    For more focused short-range model discussion:
    Short-range Model Discussion

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