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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    5 minutes ago, Purga said:

    Look at the latest fax chart showing the front much further south than the earlier one for the same time

    Latest                                                            Earlier

    image.thumb.png.68fbf9d9ee576a788ce2a86394dad9dd.pngimage.thumb.png.f88a3216801a924a66116b79a9e1354f.png

    Good if you want to prolong the cold!

    EDIT: Sorry the second fax had updated when I copied it to Sat. but rest assured the old one did show the fronts more advanced!

     

    ECMOPNH12_120_34.png

     

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    Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

    First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

    See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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    Posted
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storm, anything loud and dramatic.
  • Location: Western Isle of Wight

    Channel runner, anybody, final call.

    The output from by the models, is that similar, I could do a pirouette...

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    So we close in on Emma, where will she go, how far north, back west, split and slide east.  Well I am very interested in 12 ECM.....far from over...indeed it hasn’t even started yet ?.  ‘Blockbuster’ snow for some to come.

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Evening all. Gfs and ecm differ greatly short to mid term ,agree somewhat at day ten for cold returning to the UK. . Tomorrow's sweetspot  for heavy snow is the southwest of  England and probably southeast Wales  ,Fridays front moving up from the south looks like dying and introducing  somewhat milder weather :hi:

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    nmmuk3hrprecip.png

    h850t850eu-9.png

    h850t850eu-8.png

    ecmt850.120.png

    ecmt850.240-5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    17 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    So here we go yet again with hype train because of one ECM model run...i haven't seen others models follow it either... Disappointing

    Others have hinted and the fact we haven’t reached what is going to happen and the difficulty in ‘deciding’ the outcome.....what’s disappointing?

    Have you seen Schafernaker’s forecast last Monday to how it may occur now?   

    BFTP  

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    5 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    So here we go yet again with hype train because of one ECM model run...i haven't seen others models follow it either... Disappointing

    A bit hard to follow it when they haven’t come out yet!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Others have hinted and the fact we haven’t reached what is going to happen and the difficulty in ‘deciding’ the outcome.....what’s disappointing?

     

    BFTP  

    Sorry but what's disappointing is that I have seen this happen before when it's one run of cold like this and the very next it's bye bye sure it has a change of happing but perhaps not as cold ? But unless more models side with this I'm not buying as of yet 

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    Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
    1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

    Not disappointing to me, we are currently in severe wintry weather, some areas are looking at feet of snow and there is an olive branch from the Ecm 12z for very cold weather next week across much of the uk, in particular further north..hope wintry weather continues through to mid march or even further ahead!:cold::)

    I’d probably think it a bit concerning if we are still under an amber snow alert in May ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    8 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    Sorry but what's disappointing is that I have seen this happen before when it's one run of cold like this and the very next it's bye bye sure it has a change of happing but perhaps not as cold ? But unless more models side with this I'm not buying as of yet 

    Ahhh...I think don’t buy anything yet

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    ECM Op at the bottom of the spread thankfully between the 4th and 7th

    I'm hoping for a repeat of March 2013!!:D..anyway, what a spell we are in, wonderful stuff and well modelled from some days out..let it snow ❄❄❄❄❄..fingers crossed spring is put firmly on hold indefinitely if the Ecm 12z op is the trend!:cold-emoji:

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

    OMG this is so exciting and I’m not even in the UK. 

    Absolutely thrilled to see this ECM upgrade , please verify ! :)

    It would be fantastic to see folk get to enjoy more snow and more time to enjoy it.

     

    Well, well... agree 100%. Longevity would be fabulous... cold patterns once again suggest a dogged determination to hang around. I’m awaiting the first snow in 5 years to hit the SW tomorrow - if it can hang around until Monday I’ll be grinning. ?

    Storm track being so far south perhaps aiding in adjusting modelling as it is forced away from northerly bias. The excellent recent post on model setup suggested approximations entered into model algorithms based upon experience and judgement. This setup is probably not one that algorithm writers have often had a chance to adapt to. SSW impacting.

    Still not as bitter and snowy in the longer term as looked to be the case a week ago, but a definite step in the right direction.

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    Posted
  • Location: Isle of Man
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Blizzards, Storms, Hot, Foggy - Infact everything
  • Location: Isle of Man

    I personally think the ECM may be where the others follow. Not many days ago all the models forecast prolonged cold due to a renewed wave from the north east. The ECM is just reverting back to the original solution as we now close in on what really happens with the depression to the south. I would not bet against the ECM solution.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Remember when we had that very mobile ecm op when we were expecting the Scandi high to appear ??  Is tonights op the opposite version of that !!!

    tbf, we have had plenty of indications that this solution was still feasible though unlikely 

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    Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
    2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

    OMG this is so exciting and I’m not even in the UK. 

    Absolutely thrilled to see this ECM upgrade , please verify ! :)

    It would be fantastic to see folk get to enjoy more snow and more time to enjoy it.

     

    Yet again, can I sneak in a quick THANKYOU to you and everyone else in here who has been so good at explaining what I'\m looking at when you post a chart - it means I've been really able to enjoy the excitement - and still am doing! :)

    I'll remember this cold period for a long time, not just because of the weather but because it is the first time I've had ANY slight understanding of how all these charts and models and so on actually work! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Although it is an outlier (let's be honest here that's a pretty huge one) you simply cannot ignore the ECM op run coming up with an outcome like that.

     

    Its a higher resolution to its ensemble suite and although a rank outsider right now, you never know. Put it this way if cold was inbound and the ECM threw a mild outlier in early on I would certainly take notice. Intriguing viewing that's for sure.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    12z ECM ens for the central belt of Scotland shows a slower recovery in the 850's

    Today they are around -15 by Monday the mean increases to around -7 by the 10th it is around -5

    graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.5c2026dece1ea36db6b2f68aca1084cd.png

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in here! 
    Other options:
    Model moans, ramps and banter
    Regional discussions

    For more focused short-range model discussion:
    Short-range Model Discussion

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