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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Incredible performance from the ECM. Expectations should be managed though. As someone said, it would surprise me if the ECM were the first model to pick up on the overwhelming cold retention. Don’t get me wrong I’m excited as much as the next person but more verification is required. I rarely post but the model watching and twist and turns of late has been truly fascinating. 

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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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So... wow okay. Amazing how this low splitting away east and keeping it cold not just this weekend but we’ll beyond has kept on cropping up here and there yet not until now on the ECM.

Even stranger how it fits with the Met Office longer range talk of last weekend but not as well into their less cold for the south (than the forecasts were before) outlooks of late.

How can one low determine so ultimately where the polar boundary gets stuck next week as anomalies supporting the jet bejng at least a bit S of normal continue seeping down from the stratosphere?

Something stinks and it ain’t the snow; that’s still pure white here.

 

Good point regarding similarities to 2013 @CreweCold :)

Edited by Singularity
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22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

JOY! :D

The shortwave heading into the Channel  means energy is moving east rather than ne and this allows the UK to stay in the cold air , it also brings the chance of more snow as it heads towards Holland .

 

Actually Nick, both ECM & METO toyed with the shortwave idea a few runs back if you recall.

Let's hope this theme gets some legs with the other models!

:D

Edited by Purga
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3 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Everyone seems surprised. Which is strange because ultimately what the ECM is showing is plausible given the background signals.

Plus, I think it was yesterday that the GEM 12Z showed something similar with Lows to our South-West disrupting enough to continue the cold Easterly flow over the whole U.K for next week.

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1 minute ago, Purga said:

Acyually Nick, both ECM & METO toyed with the shortwave idea a few runs back if you recall.

Let's hope the idea gets some legs with the other models!

:D

Totally at odds with the BBC then. London news just showing temps of around 9c starting next week so someone's got it badly wrong.

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1 minute ago, jason75 said:

so if that shortwave moved east does that mean that low won't get as far north as forecast?

Yes. It is a balancing act between keeping the cold and maximising the snow chances and there is a trade off in the middle

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Model chaos indeed.

ECMWF, EURO4 and GFS are all predicting 850 temps above zero edging in to the SW and far south of England at around T+ 42 to T+48

SLP/Temp. 850 hPa ECMWF Fr 02.03.2018 00 GMTHeight/Temp. 850 hPa EURO4 Fr 02.03.2018 09 GMTHeight/Temp. 850 hPa GFS Fr 02.03.2018 06 GMT

 

 

. BUT at the same time the surface and 950mb temps well BELOW zero.:

 

Height/Temp. 925 hPa GFS Fr 02.03.2018 06 GMTHeight/Temp. 950 hPa EURO4 Fr 02.03.2018 06 GMTTemperature (2m) EURO4 Fr 02.03.2018 09 GMT

 

This is a forecasters' nightmare and could be (as our North American friends say) an 'ice storm' or freezing rain. It depends how deep that warm nose is forecast to be whether the snow melts into rain  as it falls through this nose.

Luckily all is back to some sort of normal by T+54 (by T+72 for ECMWF due to its only 24h read-outs)with all levels sub zero again and back to snow.  This is model prediction and may not come to fruition, let's hope so.

 

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The GFS 12z London mean shows a recovery in temps for the south through the weekend as less cold air moves up from the south

This less cold air lasts through to around mid next week beyond this slightly colder air returns with the mean peaking at a low of around -4 around the 8th and 12z

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.c7e178806a978cfe41a379f39a5738eb.png

Further north the recovery is slower with Edinburgh going from -15 850's today to -5 on Monday a slight drop is possible again around midweek to about -6 before a slow rise through to mid-month

gefsens850London0.thumb.png.c7e178806a978cfe41a379f39a5738eb.png

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2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Yes. It is a balancing act between keeping the cold and maximising the snow chances and there is a trade off in the middle

Apart from in 1986, it's what happened in most of the prolonged cold, snowy spells I can remember, chio. I don't think I can ever remember a lone depression take the route forecast for this one, at least during blocked scenarios such as this one...? The again, there's a first-time for everything.:cc_confused::cold:

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I remain sceptical of the ECM when none of the above GFS ensembles show anything similar. For now it’s definitely the outsider, will be amazed if it is support from its ensembles later! Let’s pray it is a new trend! 

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27 minutes ago, Essex Boy said:

Incredible performance from the ECM. Expectations should be managed though. As someone said, it would surprise me if the ECM were the first model to pick up on the overwhelming cold retention. Don’t get me wrong I’m excited as much as the next person but more verification is required. I rarely post but the model watching and twist and turns of late has been truly fascinating. 

First?  It’s been touted ??.  What a great run.....could this be the start?

 

BFTP

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10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I remain sceptical of the ECM when none of the above GFS ensembles show anything similar. For now it’s definitely the outsider, will be amazed if it is support from its ensembles later! Let’s pray it is a new trend! 

Not to worry the JMA has some support for the ECM op! :D

Seriously though the shortwave is so important that if the GEFS ensembles are wrong re that then you can throw the lot out .

It’s best to be sceptical though as it’s just one run and we need the others to move quickly towards the ECM given the timeframes.

Edited by nick sussex
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I cant remember if I posted in here or the SE thread however the models have continually reduced the northern extent of Fridays front - so with every run where a model fans the energy East in stead of North - so the front stalls & straddles The midlands & SE for longer

It was only a matter of time before the models - notably the ECM moved so much energy East that we closed off the low & allow it to send the cold back south-

The next 3 days could deliver batches of frontal snow for many areas ....

C8A0B0D5-A8F1-466A-941E-A7D68D1C1E02.thumb.png.94e402f2a42c8341016637903e25b5c0.png88743CAE-7FAE-4BF5-BD81-58D216F568A9.thumb.png.f6a572af3112dad255606a72f9238d93.png

Looks Good to me...

S

Agreed Steve....looks good AND feasible

 

NFTP

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