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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Do the models agree that the cold spell vanishes by the weekend:unsure2:

Oh, Absolutely not, ..

Think I was fishing for someone to go " Hey you there! Looks at allllll these other models showing an eastward trend and colder uppers!! GFS too progressive etc etc etc"

Bored of convincing myself ;)

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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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What an odd chart, can anyone explain to me why this low pressure barely moves for days on end and won't move eastwards as normal? Is the eastwards reversal that strong it's stopping all energy in the Atlantic in its tracks? Jet?

IMG_0424.PNG

Edited by Weathizard
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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

What an odd chart, can anyone explain to me why this low pressure barely moves for days on end and won't move eastwards as normal? Is the eastwards reversal that strong it's stopping all energy in the Atlantic in its tracks? Jet?

IMG_0424.PNG

I think the jet being so far south isnt helping it along hgt300.png

 

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image.thumb.png.ec19bdde4cd95a078648bd2a4f4da4b7.png

12z ensembles seem to be firming up on less cold air reaching further north. However quite few of those runs see an east-west temperature contrast with maximums in Wales on Sunday still struggling a fair bit.

Whereas the ensembles seem to be pushing the milder air north it is delicately poised. A run like P3 for example (which keeps the whole weekend and into next week cold) cannot be ruled out yet.

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3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

image.thumb.png.ec19bdde4cd95a078648bd2a4f4da4b7.png

12z ensembles seem to be firming up on less cold air reaching further north. However quite few of those runs see an east-west temperature contrast with maximums in Wales on Sunday still struggling a fair bit.

Whereas the ensembles seem to be pushing the milder air north it is delicately poised. A run like P3 for example (which keeps the whole weekend and into next week cold) cannot be ruled out yet.

I think the key is some more trough disruption between T72 hrs and T96 hrs.

The GEFS and other ensembles are overall less likely to see this because of the lower resolution and the GFS op bias of too much energy going ne means I’d be more dubious of it.

Lets see what the ECM has to say.

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think the key is some more trough disruption between T72 hrs and T96 hrs.

The GEFS and other ensembles are overall less likely to see this because of the lower resolution and the GFS op bias of too much energy going ne means I’d be more dubious of it.

Lets see what the ECM has to say.

Yeah agreed, if we can send a bit more energy east on Friday/saturday the picture could be very different. The 18z GFS  flirted with that scenario last night and I think it could easily come back. It will be interesting to see how accurate the turn north is of storm emma. If it is any further east then forecast that could also have big implications. Given that this is such a slack setup such changes cannot be ruled out just yet.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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8 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yeah agreed, if we can send a bit more energy east on Friday/saturday the picture could be very different. The 18z GFS  flirted with that scenario last night and I think it could easily come back. It will be interesting to see how accurate the turn north is of storm emma. If it is any further east then forecast that could also have big implications. Given that this is such a slack setup such changes cannot be ruled out just yet.

Still learning here. Are you saying ideally we need storm emma to go slightly east?

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3 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

Still learning here. Are you saying ideally we need storm emma to go slightly east?

I think it would push the milder air whipped up by Emma east and perhaps it wouldn't phase with the low to the SW of it leading to better trough disruption. (seems to show some sort of Fujiwara effect which helps it move back west)

A long shot though, it seems unlikely unfortunately but there's still a chance of something like last nights 18z GFS if it doesn't.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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34 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM ensembles from this morning show there’s still a cluster with more trough disruption.

We’re not looking for big changes , small incremental changes between runs will do fine .

The mission is cold extension and snow retention ! :)

And then to increase chances for further snow , but crucial to get that trough disruption.

Whatever happens for some parts of the UK this cold spell has been exceptional perhaps not in terms of duration but  the depth of cold in terms of uppers might never be seen again this late in the season for many years to come.

ECMOPEU12_72_2.png

ECM shows some trough disruption... and the -10C line is still over the Humber midday saturday.

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ECMOPEU12_96_1.png

Sunday looks very cold on this chart, especially by night with the slack pressure pattern and deep snow over some areas. Now if that low to our west keeps out of our trouble, we could well end up under cold NE'lies (not to the same extent as this week but still).

Kinda reminds me of March 2013 later on in the month when models kept going for a breakdown only for the cold air to win out. Different angle of attack but it seems like a genuine possibility still.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

You’re welcome thanks. :)

It ejects a shortwave east at T72 hrs , the GFS and UKMO don’t do this .

And because of this you end up with another snow event for parts of the UK,  by T96 hrs the shortwave has moved ene into Holland.

Astonishing turnaround ! :)

 

That's what gfs control did this morning nick.

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You’re welcome thanks. :)

It ejects a shortwave east at T72 hrs , the GFS and UKMO don’t do this .

And because of this you end up with another snow event for parts of the UK,  by T96 hrs the shortwave has moved ene into Holland.

Astonishing turnaround ! :)

 

cheers Nick, a good spot by you, but yes indeed, secondary LP born out of disruption....Serves the parent LP right, mess the models around and you get disruptive kids! :crazy:

Edited by ajpoolshark
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