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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

Posted Images

After trying to prolong the cold air yesterday on the 12z ICON has gone back to how it was previously with the bitter air pushing north whilst we won't see temps overly high they'll certainly be less cold than this week

icon-1-120.thumb.png.eeaea4685a070859fa0e420464e28101.pngicon-1-144.thumb.png.9ed431da13b32ccb283c2e513574c323.png

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Edited by Summer Sun
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3 minutes ago, stratty said:

The GEM is a beast!  (goes to show 54 hours of heavy snow for some! lol)

 

gem-2-60.png?12

It did that on yesterday's 12z.

I think it's reasonably safe to conclude that the GEM precip charts are a joke.

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2 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

gfs and ukmo bands of snow pushing up from France for Thursday Fri and Saturday 

Saturday no chance of snow on GFS, not with temps and dew points a couple of degrees above freezing.

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7 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Saturday no chance of snow on GFS, not with temps and dew points a couple of degrees above freezing.

Really??? Where are you talking? 6 AM sat dewpoints widely below freezing and 2m temp widely below freezing.

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6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Wet and windy end to UKMO probably hill snow in the north

UW144-21.thumb.GIF.d6f633d4ce6be5288ad4246d4cec09a7.GIFUW144-7.thumb.GIF.5df7ccb8d52de6832d61e70c999336b4.GIF

I'm actually pleased with that  - if I get to Saturday PM with Snow on the ground for a little play in the garden, then it will be a one week cold spell down here and time for Spring :):)

 

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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Move that low a hundred miles South or snow and we are still in the cold air, would be a risk of snow for many. 

Indeed, I have seen worse charts.

I like the GFS by the way, the cold air doesn't leave Scotland at all and by 170 hours it comes back down. The Greenland high is better orientated.

Edited by karyo
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2 hours ago, Jemma Croton said:

Amber now here. I said yesterday that MOGS must have been been sniffing something. 

52E619C7-089B-48B1-8173-429FB231CA15.png

I don't believe there sniffing I believe there covering all angles.

That's there job better to be safe than sorry.

What with the unpredictable nature of forecasting snow.

Seen many met warning downgrade and upgrade so either way the information has to prepare the public.

Anyway back to the models nothing much to add from this mornings run.

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How quiet it is in here tells you all you need to know about current output beyond the weekend.

In fairness the breakdown has been managed pretty well by GFS in my opinion, it’s always gone with milder air making inroad since early last weekend.

Quite baffling how some on here were reluctant to except what model outputs were conclusively showing, choosing to instead believe the cold air would not be as easily moved.

It is worth noting that a few runs have hinted at something colder perhaps coming back in at some point, but with March now fast approaching and the really cold air on it’s way out, i for one will be hoping for an early spring.

Still a nice event Thursday/Friday and possibly Saturday to enjoy.

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13 minutes ago, warmintim said:

Really??? Where are you talking? 6 AM sat dewpoints widely below freezing and 2m temp widely below freezing.

 

8 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Wait, What? Is this for the South you are referring to? As temps here will be between -2 and 1C with dew points well below freezing.

The poster I was quoting is from London so I was talking in general about the south and through the day on Saturday.

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9 minutes ago, warmintim said:

Really??? Where are you talking? 6 AM sat dewpoints widely below freezing and 2m temp widely below freezing.

The rain arrives Saturday afternoon with all parameters the wrong side of marginal for southern counties and the SE/East Anglia. The Midlands however keeps dew points and surface temperatures close to zero.

96-101UK.GIF?27-12   96-582UK.GIF?27-12

So Nick is right, most of that front would be rain, with this turning to snow over the Midlands.

All hypothetical to be honest as the track and orientation of this front seems to change on every run.

Friday is looking good for a good few hours of persistent snowfall for many parts of England, Wales and Ireland. Friday rush hour looks potentially troublesome for the M4 corridor in particular.

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2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Definitely a clearer trend towards milder air to make inroads I just hope we have a snowy breakdown here first.

As I said this morning ukmo is going to have to revise there warnings especially for the south.

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I think if the breakdown pans out as shown (and it is STILL an if at this stage), we will have learnt a few things:

Cold air can be easily displaced by warm air.

Low pressure coming up from the south against a block doesn’t always get corrected south over time.

The GFS cannot just be dismissed as rubbish just because it isn’t showing what people want.

Anyway, really hoping for an ECM trendsetter later on!

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

As I said this morning ukmo is going to have to revise there warnings especially for the south.

Would they? Still showing snow for Thursday and Friday unless I’m mistaken?

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4 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

As I said this morning ukmo is going to have to revise there warnings especially for the south.

What are you talking about? Warnings for Thu and Fri were issued a few hours ago/extended to cover the whole of the south. All models are showing all snow on Thu and Fri before milder air arrives in the south.

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If we discard the gem (which has been a bit wierd on this upcoming period) then the cross model agreement is on the breakdown getting to north midlands at least. Let’s see what ec op brings and then make a call on this. 

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10 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I think if the breakdown pans out as shown (and it is STILL an if at this stage), we will have learnt a few things:

Cold air can be easily displaced by warm air.

Low pressure coming up from the south against a block doesn’t always get corrected south over time.

The GFS cannot just be dismissed as rubbish just because it isn’t showing what people want.

Anyway, really hoping for an ECM trendsetter later on!

 

 

 

 

 

Some fair points there. GFS trumped the lot including the great MOGREPS!! And it didn't overblow the low at all - it was spot on (I got that one wrong)

I think the low for Friday has actually corrected slightly south since Saturday but it has corrected more west than south. I looked at archives from Feb 2009 (the last instance of a large Scandi High with a low coming up from the south), and found the GFS did the same then, correcting the low west between T120 and T72. Basically, the east to west flow had been underestimated (same way it often does when there is a low from the west approaching a block to the east). Maybe that's the lesson from this type of set-up

Still, we've seen southwards corrections at T12 before so it's not a done deal yet!

Edited by Man With Beard
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