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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


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Evening Guys  Officially signing off for the winter from my window - still all but 5 inches on the ground - have a great year ! Current   favourite   See

First rule of GFS model watching. Never trust a dartboard low....... But especially in this type of set up.

See you next Saturday then, Steve?

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17 minutes ago, pages said:

hi Claret easy way to think of it is move everything on that chart further south obviously bit more complex but will give general idea.

Yes there may well be an area just North of the precipitation where it will be cloudy but dry before getting into the showers again furthe North. This shows up nicely on the chart.

 

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

It does, but I think it lost the plot some time before these charts!

  • It's been showing the low moving up the country for quite a few runs now, not saying it's right but it's still doing it, hope it's wrong of course!:D
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9 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Ooohhh - I'm really liking ICON this afternoon. The perfect end scenario after wobbles of the last few days. Disrupt, pivot and slide....

But hardly any precip north of the M4. Ideally, I'd be looking for something more like the ICON 6z with the channel low running east. 

GEM is crazy from T60 onwards with 2-3 days of heavy snow across a large swathe of England and Wales. However, it seems to overdo these things on the ppn charts, so probably not to be taken seriously.

No resolution for some time yet, I think.

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15 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Ooohhh - I'm really liking ICON this afternoon. The perfect end scenario after wobbles of the last few days. Disrupt, pivot and slide....

though at the same time the Met take away the yellow warning for tomorrow for the SW!! Nothing is ever simple in snow hunting.

ICON for Monday is a beaut

icon-0-168.png?26-12

Edited by Catacol
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2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

For what its worth the GEM still phases Friday's low with the second Azores low to the SW, I can imagine the UKMO does the same looking at the T120h chart with less cold uppers, everything is just shunted further east compared to the GFS. ICON however just weakens the low and milder air makes no inroads on Friday. Would be perfect for us snow starved southerners.

I think the further east the incoming low is on Friday the more likely it is to disrupt with the UKMO and GEM getting close to the ideal scenario. Someone just needs to tell the GFS...

I think the GFS will get there on pub run.

Interesting that ICON is showing more disruption. I think it is pretty accurate in the short term which where these changes are happening. I know the ECM tops verification charts we see posted but that is for t-144. does anyone have stats for models at t-48?

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6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It does, but I think it lost the plot some time before these charts!

Hope it has lost the plot, I want it to stay cold / very cold. I think the Gfs is being too progressive in removing the cold uppers so far north.

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Still no resolution to the sw low drama.

Putting that aside increasing chances now that the models will continue to edge the cold back southwards even if some less cold conditions get into the far south which even at this late stage isn’t a given .

The north looks likely to hang onto the deeper cold and with the flow slackening later some very low night time temps are likely over snow cover .

 

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I don’t think any of the models have a clue how the end of the week will play out atm, give it until Wednesday before they start to agree on a solution, in the mean time let’s all enjoy what the beast for the east has to offer...hopefully loads of the white stuff 

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1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

I don’t think any of the models have a clue how the end of the week will play out atm, give it until Wednesday before they start to agree on a solution, in the mean time let’s all enjoy what the beast for the east has to offer...hopefully loads of the white stuff 

We should have them all on the same page by tomorrow. Thing is, it’s not unusual for the agreed pattern to vary by 100 miles or so over three days. That 100 miles could make a huge difference so even agreement may not provide an answer we have confidence in re detail ! 

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7 minutes ago, Catacol said:

though at the same time the Met take away the yellow warning for tomorrow for the SW!! Nothing is ever simple in snow hunting.

ICON for Monday is a beaut

icon-0-168.png?26-12

ICON and GEM are quite similar from Thursday to Monday. The low slides and eventually gets swept east. The snowline stays pretty much on the south coast, and then the cold moves back south. Exactly what happened in the middle of February 1947, with charts not unlike now in the run-up, btw.

GFS and UKMO see the cold putting up slightly more of a fight than before (Fridays front mostly snow, except in far SW), but the low fails to split enough, takes up residence to the west and by Sunday milder air is making good progress up the country.

ARGEPE is worst of all with no snowy breakdown for most either!

No more clarity this afternoon for the end of the week, maybe just the teeniest step back southwards by the cold?

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I'm sure the GEFS 12z mean will show a slower breakdown of the cold from the south compared to the bullish operational, that's been the case recently, indeed the 6z mean kept northern uk very cold next week!:)

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The UK is developing its own continental type set up , so as long as any less cold air doesn’t get too far north , there will be colder air and dew points over central and northern areas to draw on and filter back into any shortwave that breaks away from the main low.

 

 

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First 'plume' of the year shown at 384 on GFS :D (just for fun)

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=1

Subtle shift in the models again today towards a better outcome this weekend. Whilst I wouldn't discount the GFS as I maintain its foolish to ignore any output at that range, my gut feeling is something more akin to METO tonight. Icon would be lovely though!!

 

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31 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm sure the GEFS 12z mean will show a slower breakdown of the cold from the south compared to the bullish operational, that's been the case recently, indeed the 6z mean kept northern uk very cold next week!:)

Is it still all to play for?

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A look at the 12z ensembles shows no change from the 06z with an unclear pciture of where we stand at the weekend. Some nice trough disruption on some, others are pretty disappointing. One GFS member starts turning the low to our South westwards a few hours earlier which really helps keep us in the cold air. A mild sector manages to threaten the south coast but the cold air remains in place for many whilst still producing some snow for the far south. Lets see what the ECM shows...

image.thumb.png.9aa44cee7bc117ffb1b7158d91d932a2.png

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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That second warming has screwed us over big time. We could have been looking at a solid Scandi High for at least a week or two without that warming. All its done is sucked all our northern blocking away to Canada by next week.

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