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Model output discussion - the beast arrives

Paul

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The models are all over the shop with this low approaching from the south - the GFS has a stronger low than on its 6z run whereas the UKMO shifts the low south when compared to it's 12z run yesterday. We could play "pin the tail on Bertha" again, but I fear emotions would be too high in the winter! Imagine handing out the prize to the person who predicted the low would be over Scotland on Friday!

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Great looking ukmo this evening. Certainly looks to my untrained eye that it’s prolonging the cold. :cold:

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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

5❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

from UKMO 120

blizzards ! no rain anywhere

E0B9AFEF-DFE4-495B-A078-479548E8FEF2.thumb.png.e390382fc7d298957ba60c13822358ce.png

Steve what are your thoughts on any milder air being suppressed by surface cold where there is lying snow. Is this something that the models factor in ?  

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Actually a worse run for the south. A brief spell of very heavy snowfall, possible blizzard conditions before warming up and turning back to rain. 

gfs-2-126.png?12

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2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Steve, please explain why there would be no rain anywhere. Genuine question.

IMG_0625.PNG

Looks like starting as snow everywhere then turning to snow for the majority with freezing rain in the far south.

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1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Now this would be interesting

UW120-21.GIF?25-17   UW144-21.GIF?25-17

The low stalls and simply crawls along the English channel, with cold air still in place further  north there could be a lot of snow for the Midlands and southern Engalnd in particular, the north remains very cold and showery.

MOGREPS mate. The next low filled behind and keeps us in Easterlies hence the text updates

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Interesting to see GFS and UKMO having the low drift westwards, that keeps lower uppers over more of England and buries Ireland! With GFS starting that from a more northerly position and the UKMO further south it doesn’t appear to give a particularly different outcome. Because of the way the system interacts with or disengages from the jet?

Edited by ukpaul

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Just now, inghams85 said:

MOGREPS mate. The next low filled behind and keeps us in Easterlies hence the text updates

Somebody needs to tell the MetOffice about you and your leaks!!

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1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

MOGREPS mate. The next low filled behind and keeps us in Easterlies hence the text updates

What text updates?

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UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

The UKMO at T144 shows exactly how I'd like Friday's low to play it, with trough disruption causing it to stall in the channel. Some huge snow amounts from that, being picky though maybe uppers could be a degree or two lower down here. We are in continental air still though the uppers at T120 creep above freezing, threat of freezing rain for us there... before turning back to snow :D

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1 minute ago, AmershamMike said:

What text updates?

Long range on website

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10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

5❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

from UKMO 120

blizzards ! no rain anywhere

E0B9AFEF-DFE4-495B-A078-479548E8FEF2.thumb.png.e390382fc7d298957ba60c13822358ce.png

Even with barely negative uppers?

IMG_0395.GIF

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2 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Somebody needs to tell the MetOffice about you and your leaks!!

Somebody needs to edit their post !! Explosive cyclogenisis fast !!!! 

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For the last time....you can get snowfall without -10 uppers! They can be around zero with the right setup - such as what we have.

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Summer sun posting ukmo t168 will be worth a view. Hoping to see the back end of the low on the far right and basically out of view

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Well if the models this evening play out anyway like they suggest southern Ireland will have to completely shut down for 2/3 days.

Jokes aside this could become very serious with even front line hospitals out of action

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12Z cranks the low up to 960mb. Some serious blizzard conditions for a time in parts of Ireland before a transition to rain. I think the GFS is overdoing the low this time though...

120-21UK.GIF?25-12

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7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Steve, please explain why there would be no rain anywhere. Genuine question.

IMG_0625.PNG

Something doesn't look right about that chart. Clearly, with those uppers its 'wet wet wet' rather than 'snow patrol' in the South :D, but looking at the 500 chart I'm really surprised to see the milder air that far north!! 

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