Model output discussion - the beast arrives

[bluearmy]

Just now, mulzy said:

ECM doesn't quite make it on this run - by day 6, mild uppers encroach a lot of England.

Guess there wasn't enough trough disruption along the front between days 4 and 5?

If only the pattern was 200 miles further south!

if only ......... tbh, once we have lost the frigid airmass, I would rather have spring than some half hearted attempts at winter again.

this ec run more in line with what mogreps must now be showing judging by the noon update

[Ali1977]

I know it’s now very very cold, and many have had a few snow showers and lots more to come etc....but, if Thurs/Frinsnow storms comes in as rain, even snow to rain many in here will be disappointed. At one point this was going to last a few weeks

[nick sussex]

What a thriller this low is turning into.

Still more changes to come and who would put money on forecasting the end of the week.

The ECM is still better than the GFS for the low and that’s good news.

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

What a thriller this low is turning into.

Still more changes to come and who would put money on forecasting the end of the week.

The ECM is still better than the GFS for the low and that’s good news.

After viewing the ICON and the GEM, I was expecting an epic evening but things look mixed at best now.

[geordiekev]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I know it’s now very very cold, and many have had a few snow showers and lots more to come etc....but, if Thurs/Frinsnow storms comes in as rain, even snow to rain many in here will be disappointed. At one point this was going to last a few weeks

Unfortunately, it's a valuable lesson that the models got it wrong in FI. No shockers there I guess, it's how we ourselves interpret. FI is good eye candy but shouldn't be taken as gospel. It is also the case when breakdowns are shown in FI too though, so nothing to get disheartened about. Still reason for excitement this week and beyond.

[bluearmy]

Just now, karyo said:

After viewing the ICON and the GEM, I was expecting an epic evening but things look mixed at best now.

lets see if the eps are more keen to take the lw trough east at day 5/6. we are still far enough away for the op to be in the wrong cluster.

[Man With Beard]

Apologies guys - weather.us has updated for 850s now, and they actually get above freezing for quite some time between Thursday and Friday, and push quite far inland. Looked good when just looking at the T72 and T96 frame!!

[pureasthedriven]

15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM t144 shows the coldest 850's moving north

Just too much overall consistency over the past few days - with inter-run variations as always - viz the track of this low north. You would think that the high to the NW is being more coherently modelled than the low to the SW and it's this lack of forcing that seems to me to ultimately be 'the issue'. Can we squeeze a decent snow day south of the M4 on Friday before a 'warm up'? I'd take that.

[Frosty.]

Ecm 12z shows the cold spreading south again..good sign!

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

lets see if the eps are more keen to take the lw trough east at day 5/6. we are still far enough away for the op to be in the wrong cluster.

Trouble is, BA, the other clusters at T168 this morning did not take the low east, if I read them right. But the UKMO clearly did this morning, a few ops and GEFS members have done tonight, so still out there?

[bluearmy]

Just now, geordiekev said:

Unfortunately, it's a valuable lesson that the models got it wrong in FI. No shockers there I guess, it's how we ourselves interpret. FI is good eye candy but shouldn't be taken as gospel. It is also the case when breakdowns are shown in FI too though, so nothing to get disheartened about. Still reason for excitement this week and beyond.

checked back today and the gfs became keen on the Iberian low heading ne last Wednesday and the ecm last Thursday. I think ukmo was keen as soon as it came into its range. considering how unusual the pattern is I think that's pretty good going. it seems that mogreps was least keen to see the change in airmass. the ops have generally outperformed the ens on this broad evolution, picking it up earlier.

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

lets see if the eps are more keen to take the lw trough east at day 5/6. we are still far enough away for the op to be in the wrong cluster.

Or let's just look at this as it's stunning and might be a very long time before we see this at t48.  From there on that low just gives me the hump 

[nick sussex]

Just now, lassie23 said:

Considering it was described by many as a possible record breaking cold snap lasting well into March, if the models go for a warm up by the weekend then this cold spell will be a recorder breaker in hype and floppery. Is floppery even a word?

Not sure who hyped up this spell in terms of lasting for weeks.

But the depth of cold shown this week is extremely rare and might never be seen again this late in the season for years to come.

I’m not sure what people expect it’s almost impossible to maintain weeks of sub -10 850s even in mid winter with excellent synoptcs  but this is almost March.

The jet might well be edged further south and the cold extended anyway and the models can’t even agree at T96 hrs so not sure why this gloom seems to have descended in here.

 

[chris55]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

if only ......... tbh, once we have lost the frigid airmass, I would rather have spring than some half hearted attempts at winter again.

this ec run more in line with what mogreps must now be showing judging by the noon update

Sounds like quite a battleground scenario unfolding reading through the updated text, always very hard to nail down north south boundry in this type of sitiuation.

i would imagine those fabled winters gone by had many a set up like this, I know it's very late in the season but you wouldn't be arguing with that fact if you end up on the boundary line with all the fronts turning to snow.

middle UK could well be buried! 

 

[Summer Sun]

-6 850's spreading south towards the end

 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Trouble is, BA, the other clusters at T168 this morning did not take the low east, if I read them right. But the UKMO clearly did this morning, a few ops and GEFS members have done tonight, so still out there?

I thought the clusters looked a bit messy this morning. the op was in the largest cluster and that took more east days 5/6 so I wonder if the spreads on uppers may be a little more informative on this in an hour. 

we should have some agreement by tomorrow morning on Friday so that will hopefully make the weekend a little clearer too

[Derecho]

12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Ecm 12z shows the cold spreading south again..good sign!

I think by then people will have had enough tbh and will lose interest in a half hearted cold spell. If we keep the continental air and Friday becomes a major snow event I think the beast will be seen as living up to the hype and we could have more snow events and keep the notable cold going. However the GFS and ECM operationals are pretty disappointing and if it gets whisked away I'd be happy to see the back of any cold weather until later on in the year.

Still hanging in the balance though but even UKMO shows milder air getting ahead of the low on Friday morning for a breif time. If the 00zs operationals tomorrow fail to stop the mild air advance by saturday I think the rest of the ensembles may follow as we will be getting close to the event. In which case people away from the eastern areas will probably rate December's cold snap higheras that at least didn't see the build up of snow melt quickly.

Edited February 26, 2018 by Quicksilver1989

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

Sounds like quite a battleground scenario unfolding reading through the updated text, always very hard to nail down north south boundry in this type of sitiuation.

i would imagine those fabled winters gone by had many a set up like this, I know it's very late in the season but you wouldn't be arguing with that fact if you end up on the boundary line with all the fronts turning to snow.

middle UK could well be buried! 

 

Exactly !

The UKMO extended outlook doesn’t shout zonal mild mush but cold air close by and hanging on in the north  for the next two weeks , the boundary might change .

Instead of people enjoying and appreciating the next few days some are determined to be disappointed.

Without the SSW there would have been zip , no cold no snow and it would have been a dismal end to the winter.

 

[Frosty.]

Cold returns south next week on the Ecm 12z , not the severe cold we will see this week, especially on wed, thurs and fri but cold enough for snow at least!

Edited February 26, 2018 by Frosty.

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Exactly !

The UKMO extended outlook doesn’t shout zonal mild mush but cold air close by and hanging on in the north  for the next two weeks , the boundary might change .

Instead of people enjoying and appreciating the next few days some are determined to be disappointed.

Without the SSW there would have been zip , no cold no snow and it would have been a dismal end to the winter.

 

Problem is Nick, using your scale, we are in green plus thinking we were heading to white but now heading to red The SSW has made for a good end to the winter and very interesting model viewing. 

Edited February 26, 2018 by That ECM

[mulzy]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Exactly !

The UKMO extended outlook doesn’t shout zonal mild mush but cold air close by and hanging on in the north  for the next two weeks , the boundary might change .

Instead of people enjoying and appreciating the next few days some are determined to be disappointed.

Without the SSW there would have been zip , no cold no snow and it would have been a dismal end to the winter.

 

I think expectations were sky high and when we saw some amazing charts in mid range and FI, some of us including me all got carried away.  Add to that, talk of a Feb 09 or even a Feb 91 redux was mentioned and as ever we got ahead of ourselves.

We still have a few days of this cold snap that is guaranteed to give *some* folk snow.  

[Snipper]

Bearing in mind how rubbish the BBC weather forecast and app has been in recent times who has complained?

If yes what has been the best point of contact?

It annoys me they keep quoting the Met Office when they have sacked them. 

Edited February 26, 2018 by Snipper

[Captain Shortwave]

Just two shots from the GFS

  

The -16C isotherm into eastern Scotland then a little later 850s of -17C entering East Anglia.

This is a real rarity for the UK, so to hear people say this was over-hyped is a little harsh to say the least. The trouble is always converting this into potential for snow. It is true that had this happened in January we would have added a couple of degrees to the temperature of the north sea which would have aided in convection. Still this is only day one so perhaps we should leave comments regarding potential disappointment to that point. Especially as we will see disturbanves move through over the next 48 hours which could give coverings in places.

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I think expectations were sky high and when we saw some amazing charts in mid range and FI, some of us including me all got carried away.  Add to that, talk of a Feb 09 or even a Feb 91 redux was mentioned and as ever we got ahead of ourselves.

We still have a few days of this cold snap that is guaranteed to give *some* folk snow.  

The amazing charts have verified ! That’s what’s shown for the next few days. 

I think also something bizarre happened  when a lot of people think it’s mid winter and not about to enter spring.

You would need incredible luck to maintain deep cold for weeks this late in the season.

My advice enjoy the next few days , the cold remains close even after that and the jet is still tracking  south . 

There might still be more fun to come. 

 

[Nick_Somerset]

Ian Ferguson local BBC forecast using MO model showed good snow event for Thur/Fri but with the last words "we (SWest) may miss it... but I wouldn't guarantee it".. mmmm the plot thickens.

Edited February 26, 2018 by Nick_Somerset