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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
    12 minutes ago, Dean E said:

    I think from that statement that mean the low running along Southern England or the Channel and exiting through Belgium/Northern France.

    Completely possible.

    Ahh, still to the S of the High?

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    Sod the snow, Tom Baker is trying to steal your car. 

    I want to see this in the morning.  

    Good afternoon all ,with the passing of my beautifull wife last Autumn things have been rather busy at home but now starting to quieten down ,so today i,v been for a great walk up local woods .with th

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    Posted
  • Location: Beaminster, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Winter- Cold, frost, snow. Summer- Warm and thundery.
  • Location: Beaminster, West Dorset

    1, where theres a will, there's a way.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    Hoping for 1. ;)

     

    good night everybody 

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    Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
    22 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

    Ahh, still to the S of the High?

    Indeed, the Met is following a blend of their Model and the ECM.

    Cannot see it going anywhere else imo

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    It's looking a lot more "knife edge" for us in the South West than in my old homelands in Tyneside and North Yorkshire (where >= 10cm looks almost guaranteed by Thursday) but we're not out of it, especially as the ESE'ly for Wed/Thurs could bring some snow showers in off the English Channel for a time (mainly towards Devon and Cornwall) and there's a good chance of the models backtracking a little and revising the systems further south for the weekend.  Normally when we see an abrupt switch in the model outputs they tend not to back down on it completely but it's often the case that they over-react a little to a new signal and then tone it down.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
    2 hours ago, jethro said:

    Can I make a plea..... this is the regional thread and I reckon it's one of the best on here, we have a laugh, swap stories, make shopping lists and occasionally even discuss the weather. What doesn't usually happen in here is bickering and I for one am thankful for that. There's the Mad thread for serious disagreements, I can't see there's a need for that to spill over into here.

    I know the stakes are high, probably higher than it's ever been in all the years on here but please, please can we keep it friendly and light hearted.

    I'm with you on that jethro.......happy days ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

    In a rush, have work.

    0z ICON would bring a true blizzard across our region, albeit with a thaw across the far south and south west later on Friday.

    0z UKMO very different from yesterdays GFS again, in that it disrupts the LP against the block as it hits the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Ukmo is good imo and gfs is all over the place. Met have Bournemouth with snow Thursday and sleet Friday but the airport in snow Thursday and Friday. Being right on the coast may turn it to sleet but a few miles in land they are going for snow. The fact is that the models at t120 are different on how they model the low and therefore as frustrating as it is we will have to wait. Anyone calling it is having a punt, which is fine but it is a punt. 

    I love the saying "anyone who says they can predict the future is a liar even if on occasions they are right" 

     

    screen shots  are for Bournemouth airport.

    IMG_0631.PNG

    IMG_0632.PNG

    Edited by That ECM
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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

    Well wording on this yellow warning to do with this low on Thursday and Friday looks like they a expect a non event really. Just mentions a slight chance and small chance in the wording. All gone wrong by the looks of things?

    Edit. It's all gone west by the looks of things so could be a south west event Bournemouth and poole missing the worst. 

    You get the worst cold spell in years and can't even get a flake for Poole and Bournemouth. Nothing showing my app till Thursday but very light and rain Friday. Says it all. Just a cold spell then for us.

    Edited by Rapodo
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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Interesting little feature along the south. Suggested track nw. Could be fun for some in the sw

    IMG_0633.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire
  • Location: Horndean, Hampshire

    It's been a clear night in Horndean so I expected to wake up to -5 temp and thick frost. However it's -1 and no frost. It has been a lot colder over recent nights which I assumed would get progressively colder. A little confused to say the least unless we are in a small pocket if relatively warmer air. Ideas anyone? ❄❄❄❄

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    Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire

    My boiler condensate pipe in the loft has frozen, despite being lagged. I have rigged up an alternative system in the boiler cupboard, using a length of plastic tubing and a bucket. It is working so far, but I am on "bucket watch" and hope the pipe thaws out asap!  ?? Stay safe and warm everybody.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury
    25 minutes ago, TheHumph said:

    It's been a clear night in Horndean so I expected to wake up to -5 temp and thick frost. However it's -1 and no frost. It has been a lot colder over recent nights which I assumed would get progressively colder. A little confused to say the least unless we are in a small pocket if relatively warmer air. Ideas anyone? ❄❄❄❄

    Same here about 10pm it was -2 then thinking we would wake to heavy frost ... no none. Don’t get it . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Hot Sun (but not at the same time!) 57m asl
  • Location: Poole

    Why did I go in the MAD thread??? I come out more confused and ragey and half of it I don't even understand. 

     

    No frost here at all. Went down to -3 So was expecting to have to scrape the car but nothing. 

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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol

    Bitter here this morning but like others, barely any frost due to the lack of moisture i presume.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    Good morning, can feel the chill and haven’t left the house yet. No frost here either.

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
    35 minutes ago, TheHumph said:

    It's been a clear night in Horndean so I expected to wake up to -5 temp and thick frost. However it's -1 and no frost. It has been a lot colder over recent nights which I assumed would get progressively colder. A little confused to say the least unless we are in a small pocket if relatively warmer air. Ideas anyone? ❄❄❄❄

    What forms frost..  Moisture! What's unusual for us about an easterly continental flow.... It's bone dry! So you won't get condensation or a frost like the one your used to seeing in damp UK. 

    I assure you there is a hard frost have a look at any standing water it will be frozen. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Netley Abbey
  • Location: Netley Abbey

    Lovely outside -1.5 in Southampton air is so dry so no moisture to give a frost. Never see that too much here. Whats the latest on thurs/fri? Avoiding mainstream apps the bbc had snow at 5 degrees and rain at 1 degrees yesterday!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    Low dew point people you won't see a white frost.. :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    It’s -3.5 where I am and there’s no frost! Proper dry 

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    Posted
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Split between Wells and Bridgwater

    As I said yesterday, it’s down to radar watch and the showers are already further west than I anticipated this morning. Sod going into the MAD thread - it’ll be like committing suicide ?

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