South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[karlos1983]

I want the doubters to rear their heads please  ❄️ ⛄️ 

[Skullzrulerz]

Of course Cornwall is going to miss out

[Jayfromcardiff]

Friday doesn't look good for the South coast based on the latest run....

[EllyTech]

2 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Yeah of little faith, you were. 

Shoot. That was meant for Karlos!

[Purplepixii]

2 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Oh and the possibility of thundersnow. Cheers MetO!

oooh I love thundersnow, have witnessed it once and it's awesome! (which reminds me, storm season kicking off this weekend in the US, gotta get watching that too!)

[divadee]

Oh it just keeps getting better on the met office app. My faith is restoring after a wobble. 

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Friday doesn't look good for the South coast based on the latest run....

I wouldn’t worry Jay, I honestly can’t see that system affecting anywhere further north than the mid English Channel. Just my opinion, I’d prefer it to skirt along the south but I just can’t  see it happening. Long way off anyway. Fun between now and then likely!

[EllyTech]

On a personally serious note, I shiver when I read this from the MetO.

 

Power cuts may also occur and other services, such as mobile phones, may be affected.

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Of course Cornwall is going to miss out

I think Cornwall will be right in the firing line all week, almost from 'the off'.

Suspect Thurs/Fri event will hit south part of our region; not convinced it'll get any further north than South Somerset, Dorset.....just my opinion folks.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

I wouldn’t worry Jay, I honestly can’t see that system affecting anywhere further north than the mid English Channel. Just my opinion, I’d prefer it to skirt along the south but I just can’t  see it happening. Long way off anyway. Fun between now and then likely!

That's true. I'm sure we'll see snow before then.

[jtay]

6 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Friday doesn't look good for the South coast based on the latest run....

It'll have to plough through this...

I'm not buying that.

Right, time to get out amongst it. Walkies.... 

[Argyle1980]

GFS being to progressive with Thursday/fridays low. I can still see this system sliding up the channel at better angle and leaving us in a great position to see a good dumping of snow. 

Basically as Karl has said.

 

wayno 

[Purplepixii]

I need to start ignoring "kold weather"'s posts - so depressing for the south coast

[TropicThunder]

Yellow warning for snow already for many of us on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the additional possibility of thundersnow. The low coming up from the SW is nearly a week away and it's track won't be nailed until much nearer the time, let's just enjoy what's to come before that as I think everyone will see some snow over the next few days, some more than others!

Anyway Beeb has me down for snow all day Friday atm, which is pretty remarkable given the timescale! 

[Skullzrulerz]

5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

I think Cornwall will be right in the firing line all week, almost from 'the off'.

Suspect Thurs/Fri event will hit south part of our region; not convinced it'll get any further north than South Somerset, Dorset.....just my opinion folks.

I just hope we do but I'm not a fan of that gfs run which just happened all I can is rain? But let's hope

[Nights King]

19 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I want the doubters to rear their heads please  ❄️ ⛄️ 

I'm called a doubting Thomas for a reason.. Let's see how it looks Monday before we get too carried away. 

Looks great for your location though currently Karlos!! 

[A.J]

52 minutes ago, offerman said:

Eh? But I can’t understand how?

quite often when we get only light blue shading over us -5s 850s  is more often than not marginal mostly sleet rain for our region .

So how on earth would you get 52cm of snow when green and yellows showing as per these screen grabs. ( unless you live on a mountain in Wales where indeed it looks like they could get buried. )

 

i just font see how? Open for correction though AJ. 

any LP running into air that is frigid and has low moisture content is a snow maker...T850's of -1C to -3C are fine in that kind of situation for snow......the key things to look at are thickness values (the amount of atmosphere between two air pressure boundaries), precipitable water content of  said air mass, dew points & wet bulb temps.....based on the charts you've posted the majority of us will be fine and will see plenty of snow........I would post a more detailed response, but to be truthful I've only recently woken up, am still knackered, and I'll be missing valuable drinking time down the pub......here's a link to John Holmes excellent 'Will it snow?' thread in the learners area, it'll answer your questions in greater detail... https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/27989-how-to-try-and-forecast-snow/

 

[MidnightSnow]

I'm really surprised this thread isn't full of excitement after this mornings output!   (But at the same time I understand the skepticism because of all the past disappointment) 

Yesterday I said it's crazy that we could either see zilch or a foot of snow. Well the chances of the latter have just increased slightly. That's the way I see it anyway.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

19 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

On a personally serious note, I shiver when I read this from the MetO.

 

Power cuts may also occur and other services, such as mobile phones, may be affected.

I cant see that happening across the whole uk just from showers lol. East coast yes - practically whole country - no

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I cant see that happening across the whole uk just from showers lol. East coast yes - practically whole country - no

Problem which is real is everyone will be wacking the heating up next week, can the grid cope! I’m sure they’ll manage ? 

Edited February 24, 2018 by karlos1983

[EllyTech]

10 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

any LP running into air that is frigid and has low moisture content is a snow maker...T850's of -1C to -3C are fine in that kind of situation for snow......the key things to look at are thickness values (the amount of atmosphere between two air pressure boundaries), precipitable water content of  said air mass, dew points & wet bulb temps.....based on the charts you've posted the majority of us will be fine and will see plenty of snow........I would post a more detailed response, but to be truthful I've only recently woken up, am still knackered, and I'll be missing valuable drinking time down the pub......here's a link to John Holmes excellent 'Will it snow?' thread in the learners area, it'll answer your questions in greater detail... https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/27989-how-to-try-and-forecast-snow/

 

That's right. Its not your 'normal' incursion where warm air dominates. 

[lettice]

Wow that is quite an update for us this morning.
Forecast sites like Beeb (when the new site works) and Net weather is showing snow from Tue through Sat and also for the following Mon and Tue.
Met office forecasts not updated yet, so not as much, except the two snow warnings.
So on that we will certainly see some at some point

[EllyTech]

11 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I cant see that happening across the whole uk just from showers lol. East coast yes - practically whole country - no

It just needs one 'switching station' problem (such as a main from somewhere like Walham in Gloucestershire) to fail. Then swathes of us are out. We've less North Sea Gas. We import... from countries who are going to be cranking up their gas usage also next week. So gas could get short too.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Bobafet]

Yep things looking good for our region, I still think GFS is being far too progressive and wouldn’t be surprised to see it less progressive in this evenings runs.

As long as we have ECM, UKMO and MOGREPS on side then we should be looking good!