South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, Rapodo said:

There was no uncertainty 2 days ago hence all the ranting n raving with them clearly saying the south and east to be worse hit. How you can't see this is a downgrade for southern and western counties is beyond me. It's back to hopecasting again. Do I think we'e see snow in the air next week yeah I do but I'm not convinced at all now we're get anything major yet. As ever more runs needed.

It's the weather. There's never any certainty. Not one forecaster would claim they were certain of snow not even a day in advance

[jy]

Don't know about where you are Jethro,but the ground today was harder than a hard mans hard bits,i work every day if I can I really do but a few harder frosts and the scope of work narrows,anyway stop picking on a pensioner....ageist lol

[Zephyr]

Dodgy looking mild sector, we'd be on the right side of it though, a long way out, lots of fun and games to come.

[A Frayed Knot]

4 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

Dodgy looking mild sector, we'd be on the right side of it though, a long way out, lots of fun and games to come.

Blizzard ?

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, A Frayed Knot said:

Blizzard ?

 

That's nice as we can watch Londoners snow melt and watch ours pile up lol.

[knocker]

A major concern I would have with this scenario would be the wind chill factor

 

[matt111]

The wind already feels very cold and it's not next week yet. 

[Steve Caiels]

Hello everyone.  Another long time lurker here. Thanks for a great thread.

I literally went to the Drs today with dizzy spells.  She thought it might be inner ear problems, but I reckon (hope) it's a premonition of what's to come.

Just for fun, here's an example of why we shouldn't trust snowfall apps.

Take a look at Tuesday. 95% vs 0%

For you 'Northerners' out there (that's anyone North or East of Dartmoor by the way), these are suburbs on the South Eastern edge of Plymouth.

It could be right of course; Plymstock is 1 mile to the West of Elburton. I know snow from the East is a rare event down here - but from what I am hearing . . . . this is a rare event down here!

I can't wait to get my first chance to record a timelapse whiteout in over 25 years.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

47 minutes ago, divadee said:

I apologise. It's all over. A heat wave is coming. 2 new sledges have just been delivered to me. 

Picture!!!!!!! I was so excited to open. Did you see my picctures earlier?

[DanDorsetUK]

I believe again 

[offerman]

Seems getting the cold in was first hurdle but we have passed that with flying colours now to work on that snow and hope the wind/ripples/troughs/ low pressures can deliver for us.

[jethro]

Cor blimey, this snow waiting malarkey causes chaos, some folk are more up and down than a tarts knickers!

[Mapantz]

Day one of seven for a cold weather payment according to Hurn's data. Hopefully another six so that my dear old mum can get an extra £25 for her heating.

[jethro]

17 minutes ago, jy said:

Don't know about where you are Jethro,but the ground today was harder than a hard mans hard bits,i work every day if I can I really do but a few harder frosts and the scope of work narrows,anyway stop picking on a pensioner....ageist lol

Only teasing, never, ever take me seriously, being serious was a bad habit I broke years ago. I was shovelling from an enormous compost heap and it wasn't too bad, only the top was frozen.

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

I believe again 

Fickle as a Spurs fan ?

[khodds]

10 minutes ago, Steve Caiels said:

Hello everyone.  Another long time lurker here. Thanks for a great thread.

I literally went to the Drs today with dizzy spells.  She thought it might be inner ear problems, but I reckon (hope) it's a premonition of what's to come.

Just for fun, here's an example of why we shouldn't trust snowfall apps.

Take a look at Tuesday. 95% vs 0%

For you 'Northerners' out there (that's anyone North or East of Dartmoor by the way), these are suburbs on the South Eastern edge of Plymouth.

It could be right of course; Plymstock is 1 mile to the West of Elburton. I know snow from the East is a rare event down here - but from what I am hearing . . . . this is a rare event down here!

I can't wait to get my first chance to record a timelapse whiteout in over 25 years.

Welcome ?. Your post is spot on! The only reason I look at my weather apps is just for fun! Or for conditions at that moment.. any further ahead and they are uselrss

[jy]

No problem Jethro I was only teasing too,i stopped being serious in 1963 lol

[karlos1983]

What a cracking set of 12z!!!!!

how on earth can we keep getting upgrades of cold!!!!! It’s insane!!!

[khodds]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

What a cracking set of 12z!!!!!

how on earth can we keep getting upgrades of cold!!!!! It’s insane!!!

How long has that low shown up consistently on the models? Im wondering how realistically it’ll happen?!

[jy]

We are in trouble the word marginality going through the Mad thread faster than gossip in the Queen Vic,they are wobbling lol

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, khodds said:

How long has that low shown up consistently on the models? Im wondering how realistically it’ll happen?!

Low be coming, just question of will it be too far south or not!! But we’ve got lots to keep us occupied before then ?❄️

[matt111]

1 minute ago, jy said:

they are wobbling lol

Looks like the GEM might've joined them. 

1 minute ago, jy said:

marginality

I wasn't going to mention that. 

[A.J]

3 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Looks like the GEM might've joined them. 

I wasn't going to mention that. 

fear not, my pet guinea-pig's forecast after 10 pints of Special Brew and a full frontal lobotomy has better verification stats then the GEM...lol

[OldBloke]

There is an Azores low anticipated on the 28th to have a pressure of 979 mb as so described by our MetOffice. This low is shown to be filling (980+) as it tries to push eastwards and should fill again with each 6 hour projection. Each time it fills it loses its identity and energy. Will it get across Iberia or will it be pushed north towards the UK? If it continues to lose its identity it will pick up less moisture off a cold sea. By the time it gets to the UK it might be a small affair with a limited amount of precipitation. Sunday evening will tell us all we need to know. Hang in there until then. If it deepens then we could see substantial snow in the Southern Counties of the UK.

[OldBloke]

Oh and the "beast from the east" is being held up at the moment. Yes we are going to feel the cold from the toe of the beast, but at 500 hPa (18,000ft) the winds are west to east, thus holding the very cold air. Don't get me wrong, but to really feel "the beast", this needs to change over the weekend. Just sayin'. Don't forget either, that Scotland has already had a minus 15 recorded at sea level this winter and nobody really got excited about that.

Edited February 23, 2018 by OldBloke