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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    So ECM bringing the cold back down from the north next week that should clear things up as to what is going to happen next week! :rofl:

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    Sod the snow, Tom Baker is trying to steal your car. 

    I want to see this in the morning.  

    Good afternoon all ,with the passing of my beautifull wife last Autumn things have been rather busy at home but now starting to quieten down ,so today i,v been for a great walk up local woods .with th

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

    Some flurries in Redlynch.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Devon
  • Weather Preferences: We've hit the giant daddy jackpot!
  • Location: West Devon

    Southern England is on the cusp of a monumental snow storm and snow/ice storm for the south west. If this comes off it could be the worst for 30 years. No wonder the met office is on their guard.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    Just now, Nights King said:

    But I want my blizzard... I have never seen a more perfect set up.... it is -6c ooutside, ground is like concrete, strong wind and now I just need the ppn :friends:

    You're in a sweetspot.

    Just watched BBC1 weather (national) and for Bristol looks patchy tom eve and Fri morn. Doesnt really get going til Fri lunchtime up here according to that forecast.

    N Devon, Mendips looks like a 24 hour plus job.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
  • Location: Home Kettering. Work Somerset.
    Just now, microclimate said:

    BBC forecast and MET office forecast for my location are very different.  Loving the MET, who will be right because one of them is going to be very wrong.

    Yes. I'm currently in Yatton, north Somerset. The BBC national forecast was very different to any app. Waiting for Ian now..... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Day after tomorrow.
  • Location: Plymouth
    30 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    These charts are usually very accurate, but I'm still a bit concerned that they bring in uppers of +2/+3 for a short time on the coast - surely it can't snow on that?? I hope and trust the models know better than me!!

    Loving the cold btw, felt lovely walking home tonight, so much better than a wet 4C!!! Can we have minus 15 uppers every winter please???

    Somebody correct me if im wrong. With +0 850s the snow will melt at that level and turn to rain but as the surface cold is still there it will freeze as it hits the surface. So freezing rain rather than snow. Lovely! 

    Edited by BM4PM
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    Posted
  • Location: Coast of West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: early spring, warm summers and cold winters
  • Location: Coast of West Dorset
    Just now, Rammie said:

    Yes. I'm currently in Yatton, north Somerset. The BBC national forecast was very different to any app. Waiting for Ian now..... 

    The BBC forecast just now was pants, it seemed to ignore Thurs, jump to Friday and then with PLYMOUTH plastered across my location told me nothing!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    Just now, Polar Walker said:

    Southern England is on the cusp of a monumental snow storm and snow/ice storm for the south west. If this comes off it could be the worst for 30 years. No wonder the met office is on their guard.

    Not convinced personally. Exmoor probably.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

    You're in a sweetspot.

    Just watched BBC1 weather (national) and for Bristol looks patchy tom eve and Fri morn. Doesnt really get going til Fri lunchtime up here according to that forecast.

    N Devon, Mendips looks like a 24 hour plus job.

    I saw that too and was a bit disappointed with that forecast to be honest, although she never "zoomed in" on the SW on Thursday so couldn't see a more detailed picture.  Friday did look better though.

    Hopefully Ian F will have a more detailed & positive forecast for us shortly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    4 minutes ago, Xyber said:

    Who thinks we’ll get a red alert tomorrow then?

    SE Wales might will do.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    Just now, AWD said:

    I saw that too and was a bit disappointed with that forecast to be honest, although she never "zoomed in" on the SW on Thursday so couldn't see a more detailed picture.  Friday did look better though.

    Hopefully Ian F will have a more detailed & positive forecast for us shortly.

    I became pretty bullish during today that we were in for a good 24-hiur job. Tom nite was down for a major all-nighter. Not so sure now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.

    I think our towns and cities grew up from the ancient villages .. because they were natural shelters from harsh weather. I know that my location is in a snow shadow  actually, especially if snow arrives from the NE. The hills provide a soak for snow, winds, rain etc. I'm sure many prone areas along with exposed coasts and our near countryside will be pummelled. Please let the power stay on though. :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

    is points west live online?....can't find it anywhere....when I click on the live tv link it just defaults to BBC London

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    Posted
  • Location: BS15 8bx
  • Location: BS15 8bx
    5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    I became pretty bullish during today that we were in for a good 24-hiur job. Tom nite was down for a major all-nighter. Not so sure now.

    There is no delay, heavy snow kicks in from 4pm tomorrow for us in Bristol The problem with national forecasts is you do not get zoomed in regional detail.  Hopefully Ian will give a fully local summary in 10 mins.

    Edited by Richard Fisher
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    Posted
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Now moved to tropical Bradford on Avon

    I want a word by word account of forecast please as I dont have a tv or a license :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath
    10 minutes ago, Xyber said:

    Who thinks we’ll get a red alert tomorrow then?


    one step away on chart

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    Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
    3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    I became pretty bullish during today that we were in for a good 24-hiur job. Tom nite was down for a major all-nighter. Not so sure now.

    Worth noting the Meto have just updated their video forecast on their website and this is much more positive for snowfall for our area than the BBC "MeteoGroup" one.

    Hopefully the Meto have called this one right.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    7 minutes ago, BM4PM said:

    Somebody correct me if im wrong. With +0 850s the snow will melt at that level and turn to rain but as the surface cold is still there it will freeze as it hits the surface. So freezing rain rather than snow. Lovely! 

    More or less correct. You have to be wary of 850mb temps with warm frontal air aloft with cold air in the boundary layer and if the associated inversion goes above 0C for any depth you can then get freezing rain. I posted this earlier which is not a good example because the inversion doesn't get above 0C. but you get the drift/

    sounding.thumb.jpg.1811abcf5bad320f1f2245736a41d204.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
    8 minutes ago, BM4PM said:

    Somebody correct me if im wrong. With +0 850s the snow will melt at that level and turn to rain but as the surface cold is still there it will freeze as it hits the surface. So freezing rain rather than snow. Lovely! 

    Graupel/snow pellets could be another option, have seen this on one or two models - would be better than freezing rain, but then again a poke in the eye with a red hot needle is better than freezing rain.

     

    7 minutes ago, AWD said:

    I saw that too and was a bit disappointed with that forecast to be honest, although she never "zoomed in" on the SW on Thursday so couldn't see a more detailed picture.  Friday did look better though.

    Hopefully Ian F will have a more detailed & positive forecast for us shortly.

     I always feel with the beeb - when models are at sixes and sevens they have a habit of skipping past uncertainty on the national forecast and focus on what they feel will be right.

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