South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[karencole]

Snowing and blue skies in swanage this time it's settling on roofs and gardens 

 

[warmintim]

1 minute ago, MidnightSnow said:

Hmmm not liking the ICON at all. 

Why? It seems ok to me - with plenty of snow, over a long period of time?

[festivalking]

Looking at ICON as has been stated not an expansive as others. Dartmoor looking the sweet spot.  The main body of snow is west of cornwall. Still to far out to call and only one model run. All to play for

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by festivalking

[Bristawl Si]

It's gone black here but no precipitation at all. Was convinced this was going to spew a quick snow blast

[AWD]

Mmmm....  12z GFS and 12z ICON do miss us to the west.   Not a great start.  However, the 12z GFS does redeem itself on Friday;

Should add, Thursday's front still hits Devon & Dorset, just not those further north.

Edited February 27, 2018 by AWD

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, AWD said:

Mmmm....  12z GFS and 12z ICON do miss us to the west.   Not a great start.  However, the 12z GFS does redeem itself on Friday;

What it's going to miss us!?

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just had a big snow shower here.

[AWD]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

What it's going to miss us!?

Not you, you are in a good spot.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, AWD said:

Not you, you are in a good spot.

Surely Bristol is too? Any charts?

[Nights King]

Just now, AWD said:

Not you, you are in a good spot.

Hard to say though AWD because it still has bands moving up just not continuous like friday and if these are slow moving which they should be pushing against block surely we would be under ppn for long periods of time?

[EllyTech]

Looking a the ICON may have induced my pessimism; I know we are only two days into the event but tomorrow harbours little potential for my area and today has just been a minor fest for the eyes, seeing snow fall. This event is not in any way reminiscent of 2010. 

Will have to see what Thursday-Sat actually brings.

[wiltshire weather]

GFS 12z snow prediction Thurs-Fri

Not as good for me Thursday but better Friday. Seems similar to the ICON I posted earlier.

 

[AWD]

12z Arpege is still Ok though.  This model would still give most of the West Country a good covering;

And this model also has another snow event on Friday;

I'm more than happy with that run.

[wiltshire weather]

Really, really hoping the GEM has got this nailed ! 

Edited February 27, 2018 by wiltshire weather
Posted wrong animation!

[EllyTech]

Just now, AWD said:

12z Arpege is still Ok though.  This model would still give most of the West Country a good covering;

And this model also has another snow event on Friday;

I'm more than happy with that run.

Stops basically at the top of the Bristol Channel. Patchy at that point.

[Steve Caiels]

Looks like some lucky Irish folk have had a few rumbles of thunder snow?

[Bristawl Si]

Snowing

[Nights King]

Just now, wiltshire weather said:

Really, really hoping the GEM has got this nailed ! 

Still time for this to improve for all of us further I think it will get pushed further south yet wednesday as models start to get a handle on it.

Could still get it stalling...

[EllyTech]

1 minute ago, Steve Caiels said:

Looks like some lucky Irish folk have had a few rumbles of thunder snow?

Not really a storm but a steric is showing there.

This website is marvellous -

https://www.lightningmaps.org/#y=60.311;x=1.0698;z=5;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=201;o=0;b=25.40;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

[wiltshire weather]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

Still time for this to improve for all of us further I think it will get pushed further south yet wednesday as models start to get a handle on it.

Could still get it stalling...

Note I posted the GFS again first of all, corrected my post now

[AWD]

6 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Hard to say though AWD because it still has bands moving up just not continuous like friday and if these are slow moving which they should be pushing against block surely we would be under ppn for long periods of time?

It's a weird one mate, because if it does indeed miss us to the west, it wouldn't be the end of the world.  If the core of the PPN does indeed go west of the West Country, we remain cold and we get a second bite of the cherry on Friday ala GFS 12z and Arpege 12z.

However, we a talking ridiculously small margins here, ie a 50 mile shift east on the GFS 12z and a lot more of us would be back in the heavy stuff.

What is good is that a snow to rain event, even for those further south is looking less likely so far.

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, wiltshire weather said:

Note I posted the GFS again first of all, corrected my post now

Yes that would be a beuty all the way into Sunday 

If that lot came off id be satified and happy for spring to start after.

[AWD]

7 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

Really, really hoping the GEM has got this nailed ! 

Looks like too much PPN there.  Probably to do with the grid resolution of the model.

[EllyTech]

Where's Mapantz? Did he get snow today?

[Jemma Croton]

31 minutes ago, jtay said:

The Met Man mentions freezing rain, but only for the far SW on Friday. Here's the latest forecast --> https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

What I wouldn’t do to Aiden McGivern ????????