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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

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Freezing rain that is associated with ice storms is supercooled water. It instantly turns to  ice on contact with the ground/surfaces. Supercooled water - a bit like this - 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, kevvo said:

I commute between Wool & Weymouth. Supposed to go to Weymouth tomorrow & get the pitch ready at Weymouth FC for Saturdays match. Of course, I follow media updates & my own instincts, but any updates would be appreciated.

P.S. Stuck in Wool today! 

And a bloody good job you make of that pitch Kev! :-) 

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Yes I have a mixture of freezing rain and snow now 🤭

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10 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

What did Fergie say in PW just now guys?

He said, wake up, you're dreaming!  Nothing new to report really. He did say the precip tomorrow is hard to predict

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Blowing a hoolie now. Really noisey outside my back garden - faces N/NE.

Driving snow of the fine type still. Temps still at -4c so guess flakes wont get bigger for a while yet.

Any heavier pulses heading this way, guys?

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15 minutes ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

Don't worry.  here's an update:

     NW radar - screenshot at 1715                                 Live radar UK                                      Live radar France                                    Infra red satellite                                      Standard satellite

 5a98375164d7a_1715radar.thumb.png.8178d8d1cd1560dbf4aeb82fd5bd3b92.png   lastsnowradar_uk.gif   lastsnowradar.gif  anim_ir_color.gif   anim_ir.gif

Surely you've got some snow now? Have you looked out of the window :D (sorry - not nice). Now, nobody should be overly concerned (just yet) about the green (wet snow/sleet/rain mix) and the blue (rain) on the NetWeather screen shot. The green is actually showing up over Exmouth now and I can assure you that we're having heavy snow and the temp is sub -4c. What we have is the less cold air (close to 0 c or just above) climbing over the dense cold surface air. Radars peer through these layers and pick up some rain or sleet at a high level and they are pretty inaccurate over sea areas anyway. Even if it is raining up there (which I doubt at this stage), we would either get freezing rain (possibly a dramatic ice storm) which would present some other serious dangers (I've posted about the 48 hour January 1940 event earlier this week on here and at length on the MOD last week which started and ended with a blizzard) it is very likely to turn back to snow again as the heaviest precipitation arrives very soon. Let's put everyone on here who, like me, lives on the south coast, on "freezing rain" watch. If the NW radar does pick up on freezing rain it should show up in a dark purple or mauve colour, The Meteoceil (France) radar shows simple snow or rain colours . Where NW has that green, Meteoceil have red or now white colours which shows very heavy snow. For those further east, see how that area coming out of north France is expanding. The extreme east of Kent, Essex , Suffolk and Norfolk should all be in line soon. Those purple, pink and even the white colours on the infra red satellite are the areas of much thicker cloud and usually contain the much heavier precipitation. When that reaches the Channel it will provide even great instability. Even if the snow turned to freezing rain, it would almost certainly turn back to extremely heavy snow. as it engages our deep cold block. Those darker colours are taking a little longer than expected to arrive - currently around Nantes and through Britanny. Perhaps another hour or so until we see the dramatic expansion of the dark red and white colours on the Meteoceil radar - it's already getting pretty dramatic out there in the Channel.

UK:              Live temps                                           GIF - last 24 hours                                     Dew Point temps                                   Wind chill temps                                        Wind direction

temp_uk.png   tempresult_grl2.gif  pointrosee_uk.png  windchill_uk.png  vent_uk.png

France:         Live temps                                           GIF - last 24 hours                                    Dew Point temps                                    Wind chill temps                                Wind direction & strength

temp.png   tempresult_eud4.gif  pointrosee.png  windchill.png  vent.png

The south-west is warming up to -3c :D  When viewing the GIF 24 hour temp changes you need to bear in mind the min/max  range. Less cold air has been making more northward progress this afternoon but there are still some sub zero temps in north-west France. The deep surface cold is still intact there (just) and it is only the warmer Channel (6c to 8c) that moderates that temp. Then in the UK we still have deep surface cold and the upper temps are not as extreme as they were last night.  The winds around Emma are interesting! West in south-west Biscay and southerly in south-west France but easterly further north and across the UK. This means that even on the south coast, the surface air is still being sourced from around Belgium (eastwards) and still mostly coming over land with little moderation from the sea - this should prevent the slightly less cold air moving in until the winds veer to a more southerly quarter. Finally the pressure - our faithful Scandi HP is still there in situ but has declined . it'll be fascinating if it can hold on and forces Emma to stop moving northwards - the ideal scenario will be for Emma to drift east and that will enhance the easterly and ensure that the cold spell is prolonged for those of us that want that. I would love some clear sunny skies after the blizzard but we may still get a thaw and a slushy mess.

GEFS 12z T+0 1300 Mar 1st 850 Temps                 Live Euro Pressure                        GIF - last 24 hours Euro Pressure    

gens-0-0-0.png    pression2_eur2.png    tempresult_rhs3.gif

STOP PRESS: THE MET O HAVE JUST EXTENDED THE AMBER WEATHER WARNING TO AS FAR AS LONDON. WHEN WILL THEY EXTEND THE RED WARNING? SURELY VERY SOON (OVERDUE IMHO).

Finally, I have near "white out" conditions now. The proper blizzards is well underway. This is the less cold air climbing over our deep surface cold. A classic undercut as in Feb '78.  Enjoy :)  David

You are just awesome. Thank you for posting and especially for taking the time to post.

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Quite likely that the met will extend the RED zone further East as they have done with AMBER warning.

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes I have a mixture of freezing rain and snow now 🤭

What's it like?

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3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

And a bloody good job you make of that pitch Kev! :-) 

Thank you Sir! Are you a Terras fan then? 

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2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Blowing a hoolie now. Really noisey outside my back garden - faces N/NE.

Driving snow of the fine type still. Temps still at -4c so guess flakes wont get bigger for a while yet.

Any heavier pulses heading this way, guys?

Latest radar suggests every chance of something heavier before the night is out;

IMG_20180301_191531.thumb.png.30d5e81e45767d08dde4a02617659654.png

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

What's it like?

Can't speak for others but in Mudeford it is graupel.

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1 minute ago, kevvo said:

Thank you Sir! Are you a Terras fan then? 

There's 3 of us on here then?!

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Just now, Man With Beard said:

What's it like?

Not good! It’s like tiny flakes of ice! Very strange. I want it to p**s off immediately and return the snow ☹️

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

What's it like?

cold I should image? Freezing even? maybe..:cold::crazy::whistling::wink:

Edited by Polar Bear

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3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Blowing a hoolie now. Really noisey outside my back garden - faces N/NE.

Driving snow of the fine type still. Temps still at -4c so guess flakes wont get bigger for a while yet.

Any heavier pulses heading this way, guys?

Yes it sure is! Really hoping for some proper heavy snow later. 

Temp -2.9c Dew Point -3c

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freezing rain here also!

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1 minute ago, kevvo said:

Thank you Sir! Are you a Terras fan then? 

TSM

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Visibility reduced to hardly anything here, getting on for 5 inches probably and 2ft drifts.

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I hope the main band doesn't weaken too much over inland places. 

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couple of questions for anyone who wants to answer them; firstly whats with the 'hole' in the precipitation towards cornwall-now clearly seen on the radar, and secondly isnt this system set to move nw, seems to be heading due north?

 

cheers.

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1 minute ago, tomjwlx said:

freezing rain here also!

Tom I am 2 miles from you and have powder snow, that really is suprising?

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I have a freezing rain snow mix here for half hour as the windows rattled but looks like back to snow now

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Is there a chance this freezing ice rain turns back to snow or is that it now?

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