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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:

Thank you!

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

144 from ECM has us in bitter air



screaming Thames streamer that one. Im not convinced it will pile through quite so quickly but that can only be a good thing. Nasty little finger of doom. Right, im away camping for three days before the balloon goes up. Thanks to everyone who has made this week so exciting and for the excellent insights. 

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1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

As usual gfs being to progressive lows coming up the south maybe these will in end just run a cross southern England giving more snow England and Wales..

Exactly Abbie - high risk/high reward with a ton of naughty snowfall moving up into Southern England and Wales. (I for one would be buzzing like an old fridge if I lived in those areas)

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7 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

Yes and yes.

I think that the cold will last until the second round of negative strat anomalies push to the surface and reinforce blocking. But less certain than I have been about this first round. If we keep the cold air against the initial push of returning westerlies then round two will be less pronounced but still better than most wintry spells seen over the last few years. There will be enough time to push the snow to the side before it comes again lol.

is there any post ssw induced reason for the amplified aleutian ridge on this run ed?


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Seriously this is getting ridiculous - could be years before we ever see anything like these charts again. (with a high chance of verifying)

Sit back, relax and take it all in. 

Just beautlful! :D

ECM 240




Edited by Mr Frost
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