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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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1 minute ago, Freezing-Point said:

Very 1991.  Snow showers turning into prolonged periods of heavy snow with drifting

Best snow run I have ever seen. It would possibly put 91 in the shade. The drifts certainly would anyway. 

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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Hmm, have a feeling that the 'dry' headline for next week might get quietly dropped soon. Insane amounts of snow on this GFS run. Looks like the models were overdoing the heights to our north, which means lower pressure plus deep cold = huge snow falls.

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

massive snowfest! kinda like what bbc were suggesting as a possibility

gfs-0-192.png?18

I thought the models are suggesting a continuation to the cold well into March but it seemed to me the BBC (9.55) were suggesting it would turn to rain as this low moved up from France. Hopefully not.   

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1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

I didn't believe the runs that showed the mild air getting north into the country by the end of next week. This is far more in line with what I would expect given the rare synoptics. Likely to be some very disruptive weather.

Salt value gone up another notch.

Also the biggest thing to note is the upper high is lingering far longer on this run and isn't really weakening all that much through to 216hrs. Much more believable than the agressive runs before. 

My gut is this ends up going so far south eventually it misses us totally. However I would adore the 18z GFS set-up to come off!

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Right if the GFS comes into fruition I probably won't be able to visit here for a long while.

GFSOPEU18_216_2.png

I'll be back when the power is restored and the snow has finally melted in April :rofl:

In all seriousness though, there would be crazy amounts of snow as that low meanders in the cold air for at least 48 hours!

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Gotta be pushing half a meter of snow on the North York Moors on the current forecast! Drifts would be significantly higher. I'm sure it can't maintain this sort of craziness in future runs, but I said that earlier this week and what I'm seeing tonight is blowing those runs out of the water! 

 

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1 minute ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

I thought the models are suggesting a continuation to the cold well into March but it seemed to me the BBC (9.55) were suggesting it would turn to rain as this low moved up from France. Hopefully not.   

Looking at that I thought that some milder air would be pumped up but obviously not Looking at the 850s

 

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Also the biggest thing to note is the upper high is lingering far longer on this run and isn't really weakening all that much through to 216hrs. Much more believable than the agressive runs before. 

My gut is this ends up going so far south eventually it misses us totally. However I would adore the 18z GFS set-up to come off!

If it misses us completely then another chance down the road is likely as it just will mean that we are in the cold air for longer. Would agree with you though.

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I know that Low has been showing for a couple of days now, but what’s the betting it will go south? It seems to quite often correct that way if I’m remembering rightly. Or are The Synoptics different this time?

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1 minute ago, Gorky said:

Gotta be pushing half a meter of snow on the North York Moors on the current forecast! Drifts would be significantly higher. I'm sure it can't maintain this sort of craziness in future runs, but I said that earlier this week and what I'm seeing tonight is blowing those runs out of the water! 

 

Aye living in Moors I'm getting excited ?

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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

And she stalls...

Constant snow fall !!!!!!

gfs-0-228.png

yeah and look what is come down from the North East.. reload of the cold uppers this going to stay all snow until day 15 and beyond lol

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Just now, pages said:

yeah and look what is come down from the North East.. reload of the cold uppers this going to stay all snow until day 15 and beyond lol

o and look here comes the Artic high where is that heading back to Scandie lol we are locked in

gfsnh-0-252.png?18

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