Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Best 144 chart ever in the history of Netweather?....bloody close if not :cold-emoji:

UN144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Southender

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Fingers said:

Can anyone post country wide 850’s for the coldest days in 87, 91, 10 and 13? Interested to see where this is predicted to sit!! It looks completely bonkers!

Post World War 2, this is the coldest chart in the archives for our shores from an easterly. 1st February 1956.

 

NOAA_1_1956020118_2.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

gfseu-2-288.thumb.png.ad9a492d633067cf5d5d859ea91a2a25.png

Waits patiently for someone to mention the word breakdown....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Amazing charts this afternoon, only yesterday I was concerned about any more southward corrections and I thought we weren't going to see anything close to 87/91, if these predictions can just hold or be slightly watered down from here the UK is in for a shock.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I seriously doubt that I've seen better charts than these, in all the years I've been using NW! :yahoo:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

12z ICON snow predictions

output_BXRBTr.gif

Looks like im going to wake up to several inches for once here in sunny east suffolk. 10miles from sea btw. I think the next two days are crucial to get a real idea of snow potential. So happy that the models are so consistent which is a rare given our last few winters

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

UKMOOOOOOO…

So drink it in

Breathe it

As I swear you'll never see anything like this ever again

 

Until tomorrow morning...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I know but it’s fairly common sense.. the Estuary is above average. Vigorous convection.

A9E89920-B476-4F07-80FF-E1801FD77667.thumb.png.77a1ffcbf93d67d54d4983ce045453b2.png

I like the ad!funny enough I'm going to Mauritius on good Fri think I'll need it after the Thames streamers!😂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

How are some going to sleep!

The excitement is really growing, I’m extremely happy for all you long suffering coldies in the UK. :)

Some of the 850s suggested I’m sure would be almost unprecedented in March.

 

 

We're not! :rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A look at the max / min temps from the Gfs 12z next week...Brrrrrrrrrrrilliant:D:cold-emoji:

12_123_uk2mtmp.png

12_138_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_147_uk2mtmp.png

12_162_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_171_uk2mtmp.png

Except if you are a plant... sap production has already started so they get even more vulnerable. I love extreme weather though. It looks like this Beast is coming. 🤔

 

36 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If some of these outrageous charts come off, there'll be no daffs left to bloom due to frostbite!

Daffs will be absolutely fine, they are incredibly tough. Tree buds are much more vulnerable as sap production has started...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unreal output.  Utterly bonkers depth of cold heading our way!  March 2013 was a wonderful event but was exceptional as there was no huge cold pool, just perfectly positioned pressure systems to deliver snow...this is looking an altogether different beast.

Just hoping my move up north to Sheffield hasn't lessened the amount of snow I'll see from this!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS ensemble mean out to 180hrs so far looks excellent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Mucka mentioned he saw a new Scandi high forming in GFS 12z FI. I would not be surprised whatsoever. A record SSW followed by a secondary Canadian warming has well and truly smashed the Polar Vortex to pieces and it'll be a long, hard recovery for it. The atmosphere will be primed for height rises in Greenland and Scandinavia well into March. I have a feeling winter will show its hand well into the depths of March... It takes one look at long range temperature anomalies to see this. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry if it’s been pointed out. One of the main differences between meto and gfs at t144 is the handling of the lp as it enters into scandy. 

Meto has a completely different picture, much deeper, therefore dragging down momentum pushing the Greenland high into a better shape. Gfs barely anything. Also the low pressure over Eastern Europe which gfs has and the meto doesn’t. Rather chalk and cheese like at a relatively near timeframe. Hence much bigger differences t168 and beyond. 

Meto far better for prolonged cold. 

7A6571C8-7CB6-42AF-B94D-20598CFEEBB3.gif

FF7C9C59-D10F-4B12-9D39-877A5D11867E.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Kathryn Atkin said:

Me too. Following enthusiStically but struggling to understand how the charts operate. Must find a dummy’s guide...

High pressure clockwise rotation, low pressure anti-clockwise.  So the pressure over Scandinavia is High Pressure and all the isobars going straight over us from weekend onwards(more clearly) are showing wind, weather coming from the East.

 

BFTP  

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

12z ICON snow predictions

output_BXRBTr.gif

Central Scotland could do well from this setup, Forth-Clyde streamers in abundance :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hopefully this won't verify, the other 12z output is exceptional, hope the Ecm 12z is too!:)

arpegeeur-0-114.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another important note- IGNORE THE BREAKDOWNS IN FI. Literally days ago the models were showing us that the North might miss out on snowfall due to the high being too far south. Today, the ECM modelled Newcastle to recieve 20 inches. The models do not have the next few days nailed on, forget the next few weeks.

Moreover, cold air and Scandi highs are very difficult to shift and the GFS is being overly progressive. If we do get a clean retrogression to Greenland, we're in this for the long haul. 

Let's say we do have a breakdown. As I alluded to earlier, I've no doubt more HLB will develop as we head into March. The atmosphere is just primed for it at the moment. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS ensembles has us sub -10 air for a good 96 hours

graphe3_1000_261_105___.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...