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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    2 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

    The clusters give context to the mean

    Not the GEFS though.If the 41% increases then I will take note but if it decreases as it does regularly either way then what's the point.

    Edited by winterof79
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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Giravn
  • Location: Giravn

    I'm new to all this model runs ect...

    What are the times of the runs I have gathered GFS is around 6am, 4pm and 10pm however the rest seem to be spread out?!

    Also I hear of GFS operational runs... Is this a side kick run to the main GFS?

    Hope I'm not annoying anyone just looking to boost my knowledge as a newbie to all this 

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    Posted
  • Location: Shevington Wigan
  • Location: Shevington Wigan
    2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

    there is mate. i love your drivel :D

    Just to be clear I quoted his post to display how frustrated people get with all the toy throwing posts etc 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Cant believe all this eye candy we are getting, better late than never as they say, its like the good old days are back of the 70's and 80's. :good::cold:

    Well how about this for a Genoa Low, on the ECM mean @D9 and D10, slap bang on the bay of Genoa and seemingly not going anywhere fast, and a lovely looking Scandi high. Looks like there could be re-loads after re-loads and a few records could well be broken for early March I would think.

    Maybe some of us will get snowed in like the Waitrose Christmas advert if some of these charts confirm!:laugh:

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

    EDM0-216.gif

    EDM0-240.gif

    unnamed-3.jpg

    images-6.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent

    All it takes is for one small patch of milder uppers to get into that flow & there's no snow at all for most.

    I remember something a little similar in the 70s/80s, where the weather for the week showed lows dumbelling around each other over the UK/ Scandinavia, with snow forecast all week. A little bit of milder air got in from the South & it just carried on raining.

    Edited by davehsug
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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    7 minutes ago, Ayrshire weather said:

    I'm new to all this model runs ect...

    What are the times of the runs I have gathered GFS is around 6am, 4pm and 10pm however the rest seem to be spread out?!

    Also I hear of GFS operational runs... Is this a side kick run to the main GFS?

    Hope I'm not annoying anyone just looking to boost my knowledge as a newbie to all this 

    Information on where to find model output and what time of day they update.

    Global Forecasting System (GFS)

    post-94-0-10646700-1326646172.png GFS Viewer

    post-94-0-39277000-1326646033.gif (approximate)

    00Z 0330-0445 | 06Z 0930-1045 | 12Z 1530-1645 | 18Z 2130-2245 (GMT)

    00Z 0430-0545 | 06Z 1030-1145 | 12Z 1630-1745 | 18Z 2230-2345 (BST)

    Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

    post-94-0-10646700-1326646172.png GEFS Viewer

    post-94-0-39277000-1326646033.gif (+/- 10 mins)

    00Z 0550 | 06Z 1150 | 12Z 1750 | 18Z 2350 (GMT)

    00Z 0650 | 06Z 1250 | 12Z 1850 | 18Z 0050 (BST)

    European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

    post-94-0-10646700-1326646172.png ECMWF Viewer

    post-94-0-39277000-1326646033.gif (approximate)

    00Z 0600-0700 | 12Z 1800-1900 (GMT)

    00Z 0700-0800 | 12Z 1900-2000 (BST)

    United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO)

    post-94-0-10646700-1326646172.png UKMO Viewer

    post-94-0-39277000-1326646033.gif (approximate)

    00Z 0500-0600 | 12Z 1700-1800 (GMT)

    00Z 0600-0700 | 12Z 1800-1900 (BST)

    United Kingdom Met Office FAX (FAX)

    post-94-0-10646700-1326646172.png FAX Viewer

    post-94-0-39277000-1326646033.gif (approximate)

    00Z 1030 | 12Z 2230 (GMT)

    00Z 1130 | 12Z 2330 (BST)

    Non-Hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM)

    post-94-0-10646700-1326646172.png Netweather Extra Only

    post-94-0-39277000-1326646033.gif (approximate)

    00Z 0430 | 06Z 1030 | 12Z 1630 | 18Z 2230 (GMT)

    00Z 0530 | 12Z 1130 | 12Z 1730 | 18Z 2330 (BST)

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    8 minutes ago, Ayrshire weather said:

    I'm new to all this model runs ect...

    What are the times of the runs I have gathered GFS is around 6am, 4pm and 10pm however the rest seem to be spread out?!

    Also I hear of GFS operational runs... Is this a side kick run to the main GFS?

    Hope I'm not annoying anyone just looking to boost my knowledge as a newbie to all this 

    3:30 am GFS, UKMO, GEM 0z 

    6 am ECM 0z 

    9:30 am GFS 6z

    3:30 pm GFS, UKMO, GEM 12z

    9:30 pm GFS 18z

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Well the Control run is following the 'eccentric' path forged by the Op.  Brilliant at 162, very snowy.....won't be there in the morning mind!

    gensnh-0-1-168.png gensnh-0-0-162.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    The gfs went shortwave crazy. However the control is going the same way. Just shows how unstable this could all turn.  Potentially snowiest period for a few years 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL

    Incredibly, out to 174hrs so far and the 18Z ensemble mean is not dissimilar to the op. 

    Edited by Sawel
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    Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

    Noticed that a few GEFS members have the high set up over Scandinavia which in the long run if we want a more sustained easterly that's the path we need. I'm not taking anything after 144 hrs on the GFS ATM. It's throw out different solutions every run. Looking forward to some biting cold days ahead ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    And the mean at 180 shows the earlier run has some sort of support? 

    gensnh-21-1-180.png  gensnh-21-0-180.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    All getting rather complex and messy on the 18z GFS after mid-week as the block drifts away toward Greenland. The upper trough / low over the Baltic Sea on Tuesday continues westward over the North Sea by early Thursday and leads to area(s) of low pressure to form ahead of it across the UK. The upper low loiters over the UK for rest of the week and into the following weekend, with surface lows rotating around it. Still cold enough air wrapping around the low pressure system for snow at lower levels. 

    However, the upper troughing over Europe and associated 500mb lows spinning west on the northern flank between ridge and trough may not be well handled by the models for now, certainly there are differences between the models from mid-week, GFS seems to be on its own on bringing a deep 500mb low west over N Sea mid-week, though 12z EC does  lower heights from the east later in the week, with a surface low dropping SW over northern and western UK.

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    Just now, ian33nw said:

    Just to be clear I quoted his post to display how frustrated people get with all the toy throwing posts etc 

    he's probably not the best example you could have used. he is an android built by weather computers and his brain is made of snow... :crazy: :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
    15 minutes ago, Ayrshire weather said:

    I'm new to all this model runs ect...

    What are the times of the runs I have gathered GFS is around 6am, 4pm and 10pm however the rest seem to be spread out?!

    Also I hear of GFS operational runs... Is this a side kick run to the main GFS?

    Hope I'm not annoying anyone just looking to boost my knowledge as a newbie to all this 

    Just to answer the other part of your question, no the GFS operational run is the GFS run. It gets referred to as the op, and there is also the control run. The ensembles is the other runs (18 I think, but don't quote me) that make up the full suite for that run and there will be a mean of all the ensembles. Hope that helps mate 

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    Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Location: London, UK
    3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    All getting rather complex and messy on the 18z GFS after mid-week. The upper trough / low over the Baltic Sea on Tuesday continues westward over the North Sea by early Thursday and leads to area(s) of low pressure to form ahead of it across the UK. The upper low loiters over the UK for rest of the week and into the following weekend, with surface lows rotating around it. Still cold enough air wrapping around the low pressure system for snow at lower levels. 

    However, the upper troughing over Europe and associated 500mb lows spinning west on the northern flank between ridge and trough may not be well handled by the models for now, certainly there are differences between the models from mid-week, GFS seems to be on its own on bringing a deep 500mb low west over N Sea mid-week, though 12z EC does  lower heights from the east later in the week, with a surface low dropping SW over northern and western UK.

    It's been a very long time since I model watched.  But does the GFS still have a westerly bias?  It's always defaulting to Zonal in fantasy island.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    4 minutes ago, Sawel said:

    Incredibly, out to 174hrs so far and the 18Z ensemble mean is not dissimilar to the op. 

    Yep the GFS ensembles agreeing with it. I suppose it is a possibility though I'd rank it low on the table of likely outcomes, especially given the GFS is pretty bad at lowering heights too rapidly in blocking setup. The idea of a low coming SW nearby our region however does have good support from other models. It's just because the GFS weakens the upper high too fast it's all placed further north than other models. I strongly suspect the GFS will shift some way tomorrow. The others may also move a little further north, esp UKMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    The good thing is.that, no matter how messy the output gets or how much the models wobble, the theme remains bitterly cold with lots of snow. Just shows what a great pattern we are in for significant snow, and it could last for some time!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, crisp, calm and sunny
  • Location: Bedfordshire/Herts border 40m asl
    52 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    I think for entertainment value, this run get's a 10 out of 10 from me.  For the likelihood of verifying beyond about 150, I would give it around a 2.  Trust me, this chart at 210 will not be appearing on the 0z (shame, looks an absolute snowfest). 

    gfsnh-0-210.png?18

    FI currently around 96, but I think at least the weekend moving into Monday should be pretty much nailed by tomorrow evening runs

    There's a skull face over the UK in the above run.  Probably apt if this verified...

    47 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

     

    Edited by Soaring Hawk
    Over exposure to the models. Night night.
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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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