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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Salisbury
  • Location: Salisbury
    15 minutes ago, stodge said:

    ...so for me UKMO is far superior to GFS and ECM this evening.

    Erm I'm not so sure about that stodge.  I mean I do get your point about prolonged cold; but "UKMO is far superior" to the ECM?, I must disagree.  That ECM was one to bank.
    To be honest I think quite a few people saw the UKMO as a bit of a let down run in comparison; nevermind far superior! 

    Edited by Rob Walker
    minor corrections
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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

    Another stunning ecm mean. From 12z yesterday, each mean of the ecm has gradually become more and more favourable for us.

    EDM1-168 (2).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I'm banking the GEFS 12z mean for next week right now!!..nationwide freeze from the Beast from the East!:D:cold-emoji:

    21_168_850tmp.png

    21_168_2mtmpmax.png

    21_192_850tmp.png

    21_192_2mtmpmax.png

    21_216_850tmp.png

    21_216_2mtmpmax.png

    21_240_850tmp.png

    21_240_2mtmpmax.png

    21_264_2mtmpmax.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Very nice indeed 

    DA5E98E8-6004-4308-B83D-F38D15E3AD83.thumb.png.3b3a8a1579ea30a4524e0753c428f18d.png2935544C-4A46-4AF8-8195-DB60354249C0.thumb.jpeg.30ff47857362cac99b27120c9f774aa9.jpeg

    -8 850’s formmost throughout!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    35 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    OK here's the snow details on the ECM:

    Monday - snow showers on the east coast from the off, pushing well inland, even to western areas

    Tuesday - a trough from the NE crosses the UK affecting all except the SE and perhaps sheltered NW area - has cleared Wales and the SW by teatime. Snow showers carry on for the SE all the while

    Wednesday: convective snow showers bubble up as the day goes on, particularly SE but could be anywhere

    Thursday: Possibility of more organised troughs over central/northern areas, bringing snow

    Friday: the trough becomes a very active front, much of central/western/northern areas would be absolutely buried in snow today. 

    Saturday: The front heads east but fizzles out before reaching the east coast. Looks like more snow about the approach from the SW (perhaps rain in the extreme SW by this time)

    Here’s the snow details from the UKMO model. 6F76ADAE-A1F8-4895-AE76-7D229E352891.thumb.gif.331f311132ecb2bee3fc9016c881de43.gifF360A58F-A5E6-43C5-A92E-791A5DE68B5C.thumb.gif.b77392e98e6723b0bbdc80fe0f3eb556.gif

    Monday will be mainly dry with sunny spells, but snow showers will develop across some eastern and southern areas. 

    Tuesday will be mainly dry with sunny spells, but snow showers will develop across some eastern and southern areas. 

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
    1 minute ago, Rob Walker said:

    Erm I'm not so sure about that stodge.  I mean I do get your point about prolonged cold; but "UKMO is far superior" to the ECM this evening?, I must disagree.  That ECM was one to bank.
    To be honest I think quite a few people saw the UKMO as a bit of a let down run this eve; never-mind far superior! 

    I'm being slightly provocative, Rob. ECM at T+264 isn't an easy chart to call and you have to hope heights will rise over Scandinavia otherwise it's probably game over as the Atlantic re-asserts.

    GFS calls time on the cold spell as does JMA which does so incredibly quickly.

    With UKMO there's no route back for milder air as far as I can see. Maybe GFS is being over-progressive as it often is but JMA takes the cold air so far north the milder air gets in to the south.

    The thing is everyone today has complained about "southward correction" but ARPEGE is looking like a solid chart for cold if it can get the HP into Greenland.

    My chart of the day so far is NAVGEM 12Z at T+180:

    navgem-0-180.png?21-19

    FIM 12Z at the same time close behind:

    fim-0-180.png?12

    Note how the LP are kept far to the south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dover. Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, sun, thunder, storms, frosts, summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Dover. Kent
    19 minutes ago, stodge said:

    The more I look at the UKMO the more I like it. The T+168 posted by Summer Sun above confirms there's absolutely no route in for milder air from the south or south west. The Atlantic LPs are over the Azores and Portugal. The airflow over the UK looks from the north and we can only speculate on any disturbances in the colder air over Scandinavia.

    I know a lot of people want deep snow but I'd prefer extended cold so for me UKMO is far superior to GFS and ECM this evening.

    Agreed Stodge, the UKMO run is a decent run, particularly for those in the SE.  Anyhow, being out in FI, the corresponding 144 chart will have altered a lot in 24 hours time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    I'm wondering what effect the second stratospheric warming may have on proceedings next week, if any. We had brilliant posts from the most experienced posters on here regarding the first warming but I don't think I've seen anything about the second warming?

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    9 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    Another stunning ecm mean. From 12z yesterday, each mean of the ecm has gradually become more and more favourable for us.

    EDM1-168 (2).gif

    Yes - the eps mean continues to look sublime but as per this morning, it hides a cluster supporting the 00z op with the upper ridge close to the uk. The op and control jumping clusters continues to show the uncertainty. Not surprised to see the near term upgrade from the 00z run but day 6 onwards could yet  disappoint. Hopefully the poorer cluster drops off later in percentage terms and goes completely in the morning.

    note the high height cluster against the mean below at day 7

    FF419E89-26F0-4334-AAAE-8487FB4E4AEE.thumb.jpeg.6b8a5c86980e931a8e45372988626b6d.jpeg  476DB165-8ECE-4C08-8DD1-C21F4113F99F.thumb.jpeg.3248f3a7f9b6ceecb8b038e307c063cb.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Kenilworth, Warks
  • Location: Kenilworth, Warks
    4 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    NAVGEM is pretty good.

    tempresult_xvs5.gif

    Just love your animations The Eagle. Would be great to see all main models animated side by side for each run. Keep up the good work!! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Salisbury
  • Location: Salisbury
    16 minutes ago, stodge said:

    I'm being slightly provocative, Rob. ECM at T+264 isn't an easy chart to call and you have to hope heights will rise over Scandinavia otherwise it's probably game over as the Atlantic re-asserts.

    GFS calls time on the cold spell as does JMA which does so incredibly quickly.

    With UKMO there's no route back for milder air as far as I can see. Maybe GFS is being over-progressive as it often is but JMA takes the cold air so far north the milder air gets in to the south.

    The thing is everyone today has complained about "southward correction" but ARPEGE is looking like a solid chart for cold if it can get the HP into Greenland.

    My chart of the day so far is NAVGEM 12Z at T+180:

    navgem-0-180.png?21-19

    FIM 12Z at the same time close behind:

    fim-0-180.png?12

    Note how the LP are kept far to the south.

    Ahh the ole devils advocate approach I see. To hook, line and sinker me. 

    You do raise some valid points I won't deny, and hadn't looked too closely at the NAVGEM, yes that +180 chart does look tasty!
     
    The concern with the UKMO run is surely its southwards correction/and delays in the cold and extent of reaching our shores? It was still a decent run for the longer stint and those in the south/east intially.

    And I still think you are undervaluing that ECM run; I mean when you're looking as far out as T+264 to pick fault a lot can change by then anyway ;) aha

    Edited by Rob Walker
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    Posted
  • Location: Stirling / Dublin
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy drifting snow.
  • Location: Stirling / Dublin
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    ng the 00z op with the upper ridge close to the uk. The op and control jumping clusters continues to show the uncertainty. Not surprised to see the near term upgrade from the 00z run but day 6 onwards could yet  disappoint. Hopefully the poorer cluster drops off later in percentage terms and goes completely in the morning.

    note the high height cluster against the mean below at day 7

    FF419E89-26F0-4334-AAAE-8487FB4E4AEE.thumb.jpeg.6b8a5c86980e931a8e45372988626b6d.jpeg  476DB165-8ECE-4C08-8DD1-C21F4113F99F.thumb.jpeg.3248f3a7f9b6ceecb8b038e307c063cb.jpeg

    What % did this cluster make up on this mornings run?

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
    1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

    Can the UK squeeze out an extra 12 hrs of that easterly flow, just enough to get the purple blob west.

    Very exciting ECM run regardless.

    ECM looking amazing... can i just ask that if the high eventually moved to Greenland then would places inland and down south still get snow from that set up? Would it be different to our typical Northerlies where you tend to get the wishbone affect on the coasts?  Thanks anyone.. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

    tempresult_umm9.gif

    Well that is a thing of beauty. What a mean out to day 10!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newport
  • Location: Newport

    The first stage of the SSW threw the models into turmoil for a while until the ECM latched onto the current cold run and the others slowly followed suit. This cold spell is now odds on for next week. Do you think the second SSW we have witnessed will also throw the models in the coming days?

    Hope not as it will cause chaos in here, by the way last few pages in this thread have been bliss long may it continue. 

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    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

    I’m scared to trawl through all the catastrophe posts that came out after ‘that 12z GFS episode’earlier , but did anyone comment on Dr Ventrice’s tweet about the NAO going record breakingly negative ?

    The record being  ( for the time of year) ... (-2.77sigma) models projecting (-3sigma) , guess my question is ... could this be playing havoc with output also ? 

    D4A057D0-733F-41AA-9B4A-130D8DD42FFE.png

    Edited by Raythan
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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    1 minute ago, Raythan said:

    I’m scared to trawl through all the catastrophe posts that came out after ‘that 12z GFS episode’

    earlier , but did anyone comment on Dr Ventrice’s tweet about the NAO going record breakingly negative ?

    The record being  ( for the time of year) ... (-2.77sigma) models projecting (-3sigma) , guess my question is ... could this be playing havoc with output also ? 

    D4A057D0-733F-41AA-9B4A-130D8DD42FFE.png

    Please correct me if I am wrong but this might delay the transition of the HP to Greenland somewhat.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    40 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

    What the hell has the JMA picked up on? I suppose it is an evolution which is plausible, Greeny/Scandi HP block with no shortwaves dropping into Iberia.

    JN192-21.GIF?21-12

    GFS:

    gfsnh-0-192.png?12Not a million miles away

    ECM:

    ECH1-192.GIFHaving none of it

    GEM:

    gemnh-0-192.png

    Can`t see the UKMO but akin to the last 2 charts IMO after looking at T144. 

    GFS/JMA are deffo worth watching closely in the next 48hrs (as they all are but...)

    The GFS and JMA believe it or not could give tremendous snowstorms before it ends up like the charts you have posted. The continent will be hard frozen don't forget, so SE winds even with marginal uppers could give a dumping. 1978 a text book example. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    Just now, Stuie W said:

    Please correct me if I am wrong but this might delay the transition of the HP to Greenland somewhat.

    No. A strongly negative NAO is highly indicative of a Greenland high.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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