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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Bit of a southward shift at t192

    ECM0-192.thumb.GIF.34703b447119936a5e8c5a2ef54c54a6.GIF

    I'm guessing the -16 line crossed the SE between runs.

    After T168 looks a right mess at the moment, but a high chance of snow one way or another as next weekend approaches.

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    ECM1-216.GIF?21-0   ECM0-216.GIF?21-0

    Probably the coldest southerly I have seen. :rofl:

    Seriously, there would be fronts embedded in this bringing heavy snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cottingham
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Cottingham

    ECMOPEU12_216_2.png

    Strange chart that, a southerly with sub -10C uppers :rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    4 minutes ago, Purga said:

    THis could be the pre-cursor to a massive snowfest!

    image.thumb.png.68c5125ac52284a22f34c324339dac66.png

    Too far out but fascinating evolution now...

    DITTO with bells & knobs on at 216

    image.thumb.png.4ceffa5348711c9f85388362e11f3c8b.pngimage.thumb.png.8b5893c3c1b031f512e76d8b61cb12bb.png

    :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Worth noting that whilst the sun is stronger at this time of year meaning the max temps will get higher, it will also allow for more convection to make it further inland. Anyway great synoptics on the 12z ECM BUT we will need to watch the ensembles to see where it lies within the ensemble set.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Some are going to see huge deposits(snow) from this spell.

    Models are playing out differing scenarios run to run on this..

    But snow....and lots of it are firming!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    OMG snow everywhere except the SE.

    unsmug smiley lol- massive cahoona upgrade

    8E197E99-8399-4DDC-8ADE-9AC468161F84.thumb.png.d068278d27ca5b5f03bf74e9f5507d45.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

    Cold air getting back at t216 plenty of snow for some

    ECM1-216.thumb.GIF.eceb271f30e79be5fb830dad0537864d.GIFECM0-216.thumb.GIF.ad61cc07f7f14ee293a65d4af1a6189c.GIF

    That is one of the most bizarre charts I have ever seen. For Norfolk, that's minus 14C uppers on a southerly!! 

    Serious shades of 1991 on this chart.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
    1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

    Cold air getting back at t216 plenty of snow for some

    ECM1-216.thumb.GIF.eceb271f30e79be5fb830dad0537864d.GIFECM0-216.thumb.GIF.ad61cc07f7f14ee293a65d4af1a6189c.GIF

    If that sinks South, could draw in some deeper cold again from the East.

    Great ECM, hopefully UKMO is further South due to its slight bias in under doing low pressure systems, meaning less trouging beneath the high to support a higher latitude.

    GFS looks a bit messy and out of sorts with its own ensembles.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

    I think the ECM will boost the morale in here but nothing has really changed beyond Monday . Hopefully this run is the way forward but the next run could revert back to a less exciting Wednesday - Friday ! Fingers crossed it won't !

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Ecm 12z turns into a mess but a very cold mess so it's all good really ??:D:cold:❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

     

    Just now, Man With Beard said:

    That is one of the most bizarre charts I have ever seen. For Norfolk, that's minus 14C uppers on a southerly!! 

    Serious shades of 1991 on this chart.

    That's because it has not approached from the south. 

    As per the day 8 uppers you can see that a cold front is moving south, what happens essentially is that a new low forms as this happens and the front stalls and wraps round. 

    It is as somebody said a lot like 5th Jan 10 which gave me my single largest snow event, 21cm. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    OMG snow everywhere except the SE.

    unsmug smiley lol- massive cahoona upgrade

    8E197E99-8399-4DDC-8ADE-9AC468161F84.thumb.png.d068278d27ca5b5f03bf74e9f5507d45.png

    just as well steve. this'll be the south downs by then-

    antarcticajpg-afa50c6976544549.thumb.jpg.a2b52222156dc543aeafb67cd2a7d2dc.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    That is one of the most bizarre charts I have ever seen. For Norfolk, that's minus 14C uppers on a southerly!! 

    Serious shades of 1991 on this chart.

    Without looking at the set-up I suspect we are still dragging in easterly air at 850hpa but we will see what happens.

    Great snow spell coming down form the NE from the looks of things and the fronts will continue to rotate around the low which keeps bringing up decent cold.

    Anyway hope that 12z ECM calms people down a little, still alot to play for and things can still go both up and down.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

      Cracking ECM run with plenty of cold and snow being shared around ..

    Good to see the top rated model upgrading as the event draws closer.

    If it still shows something similar come Friday then we coul be on for something really special.

    Fingers crossed.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Looks like ECM has blown a gasket @240hrs    :laugh:

    image.thumb.png.66a4a65030edbcd9ca652268c113c407.pngimage.thumb.png.d0d05fcdabc104cb3c10986438a685f3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    5 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

    Cold mess = snow fest!

     

    Yes that's why I showed the snow symbols...it's all good, looking at the Ecm 12z, next week and indeed further ahead would be the most wintry spell for years, at least across southern uk.:):cold:❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄???

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Also worth saying that the 12z ECM is VERY close synoptically to the 12z GEM and has that same low pressure system coming down from the NE. Very snowy charts but this is still a very fluid set-up that could change a fair amount post the 26th.

    Pretty high confidence on the cold arriving overnight on Sunday and snow showers should kick in then as well, higher uncertainty further north but should still be ok.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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