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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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I think the Atlantic will come in a lot quicker than what the models are showing. Alot of energy sitting out there which just want to go across into Europe 

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5 minutes ago, danm said:

No, over countless runs, the first pulse of sub -10c uppers has been forecast to arrive between Sunday and Monday. Different runs have played around with the arrival of this air, some showing Sunday, others Monday. The 6z still shows Monday. So there is no delay. Certainly not until Wednesday. Yes on the 6z the uppers moderate temporarily on Tuesday before an even colder wave of 850's come in, but even in that "less cold interlude on Tuesday, it will still be cold enough for snow. So what is the problem?

Having watched many successful and failed easterlies, more failed than successfull I should add. This is a classic sign of a failed easterly, if this continues the easterly may never arrive or be a blink and you’ll miss it affair.

would add I would like to be wrong on this but this is model output discussion so all outcomes showing in the models should be able to be discussed here.

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16 minutes ago, Arrows1986 said:

I'm liking the look of that low near the channel, surely that would draw cold air further south if it sinks ? or am I reading this completely wrong

 Yes Has  low clears to south we stay in the freezer..:D

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Looking good still, but important to highlight what can go wrong.

Main worry. 30% as per ec op. We see the high collapse over uk, esp north. Leading to very cold weather further south and scuppering snow chances. 70%  confidence of direct hit to the UK.

Screenshot_20180221-104532.jpg

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1 minute ago, Weather Wonder said:

Having watched many successful and failed easterlies, more failed than successfull I should add. This is a classic sign of a failed easterly, if this continues the easterly may never arrive or be a blink and you’ll miss it affair.

would add I would like to be wrong on this but this is model output discussion so all outcomes showing in the models should be able to be discussed here.

You are right all outcomes should be discussed in this thread. One problem though none of the models are showing a failed E,ly!

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Those of you who are worrying about the onset of cold being delayed - easy solution -  stop taking the gfs as gospel and look at all the models. In this case, the ecm modelling will be right re the onset of the -10c uppers and the gfs will be proved to be too progressive. It’s not always the case btw! 

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

And where did that run at day 7 sit within the ensembles and within the other model suites?

I didn't save the ensembles unfortunately! Either way, my point is honestly the real snowy charts have always stayed at 168+, if people don't see that I honestly don't know what to say. It's not moaning to say that over the past few days the cold uppers still arrive at the same time BUT the real nirvanas have been and keep being delayed till day 7 onwards.

 

But there you go, just my opinion I'm not moaning and I'm not someone who moans on this thread so it annoys me being tarnished as that.

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2 minutes ago, somofagun said:

I think the Atlantic will come in a lot quicker than what the models are showing. Alot of energy sitting out there which just want to go across into Europe 

Actually it is often the opposite, the models can be poor at modelling the Atlantic trying to barrel through entrenched cold and the cold block over Europe often proves more resilient than shown. There were some good examples of this last winter.

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5 minutes ago, karyo said:

Thank you for providing the evidence! :)

 

1 minute ago, TEITS said:

You are right all outcomes should be discussed in this thread. One problem though none of the models are showing a failed E,ly!

It’s a pattern showing in the outputs a gradual watering down so to speak

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5 minutes ago, Weather Wonder said:

Having watched many successful and failed easterlies, more failed than successfull I should add. This is a classic sign of a failed easterly, if this continues the easterly may never arrive or be a blink and you’ll miss it affair.

would add I would like to be wrong on this but this is model output discussion so all outcomes showing in the models should be able to be discussed here.

Ok everyone. Look back to METO updates last week they always said the start of next week for the very cold air to arrive . The models were just bringing it in earlier . Weather wonder are you on a wind up ? 

Edited by ICE COLD
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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I didn't save the ensembles unfortunately! Either way, my point is honestly the real snowy charts have always stayed at 168+, if people don't see that I honestly don't know what to say. It's not moaning to say that over the past few days the cold uppers still arrive at the same time BUT the real nirvanas have been and keep being delayed till day 7 onwards.

 

But there you go, just my opinion I'm not moaning and I'm not someone who moans on this thread so it annoys me being tarnished as that.

Exactly, we can only say what we see. Some people will disagree but that's fine. C'est la vie!

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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I didn't save the ensembles unfortunately! Either way, my point is honestly the real snowy charts have always stayed at 168+, if people don't see that I honestly don't know what to say. It's not moaning to say that over the past few days the cold uppers still arrive at the same time BUT the real nirvanas have been and keep being delayed till day 7 onwards.

 

But there you go, just my opinion I'm not moaning and I'm not someone who moans on this thread so it annoys me being tarnished as that.

So the goal post have now moved, from Cold being pushed back to Snowy charts being pushed back.

again I feel that experienced members of this thread still do not understand that you can not predict snow that far out.

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It may well be going back slightly (still in by Monday morning) but the duration of this fantastic potential spell is not being reduced - it’s not 3 days down to 2 days or 5 to 3 days. I’m in an North Easterly now and still have -8 uppers at t276 on the gfs 6z run. The days may be lengthening and the sun gaining strength but it’s better than anything i’ve had for 5 years and it has potential to make that look incredibly tame! 

Edited by Fingers
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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Some substantial snow on the 06z and that is without the potential for lake effect snow in the east!

240-780UK.thumb.GIF.1bb197b198762139c0f9aaae893b308a.GIF

 Not often you see blue on snow depth charts. And as you point out that's just off the blizzard, no account of the convective snow.

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7 minutes ago, somofagun said:

I think the Atlantic will come in a lot quicker than what the models are showing. Alot of energy sitting out there which just want to go across into Europe 

Based on what fact or science ?

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2 minutes ago, karyo said:

Exactly, we can only say what we see. Some people will disagree but that's fine. C'est la vie!

Okay then but what you are seeing is wrong....... It's not a matter of opinions its a matter of facts the archives are available for all to see.

You made several posts about the cold being pushed back, with no evidence to back it up, when someone posted one chart from one run you immediately jumped on it as evidence, which again does not fit the actual narrative. 

another run from Sunday (ICON) 
icon-0-168.png?01-00

the cold has only been delayed if you pretend that only one run from one model counts as anything.

The timing has always been Sunday/Monday. That is still the case!

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What is getting ridiculous, is the number of "non-moaners" moaning about "moaners", therefore becoming "moaners "themselves!

Oops, that sort of includes me now sox

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Everything still looking good this morning from the ens yesterdays 12z EC and todays 0z EC both have stellar means the 0z op looks like it went a bit wrong compared to its ens 

Screenshot_20180221-111423.thumb.png.a123bae5aec527167283e6135d820ce3.png

Screenshot_20180221-111429.thumb.png.523f59cc1e6c6fa6e2f10f8bde8c15ad.png

And the GEFS 18z then 0z and 6z all looking good apart from a few stray runs but they aren't all going to be the same 

Screenshot_20180221-111628.thumb.png.5467d058c68b8eadb416090517e05619.png

Screenshot_20180221-111632.thumb.png.22507832655c4bf89fa655fc6c088852.png

Screenshot_20180221-111637.thumb.png.5a86aff3beb53f04384c660acb1969a2.png

Cold still looks on track and incoming 

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6 minutes ago, karyo said:

Exactly, we can only say what we see. Some people will disagree but that's fine. C'est la vie!

Nothing wrong with stating what you see, however your interpretation on the arrival of cold enough air for snow is wrong. It is still Monday, not Wednesday as you previously stated a few pages back. 

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T+120 (Sunday night/Monday morning).....conditions conducive to snow arrive in the East. As has been the ball park for a while now. By the end of Monday pretty much the entirety of the UK are in favorable conditions (Ppn aside) for SNOW. Relax.

120-7UK.gif

Edited by Southender
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Long long time lurker - only crawl out from the woodwork during exceptional times ...

Can someone please explain why following the SSW the wind reversal effects only seems to be affecting down to a certain latitude ....

Why wouldn’t say North Africa be set for raging Easterlies ?

 

 

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