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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent

    OP the warmest member by 1st March. Its still worrying that it copied what the 12z GFS was showing yesterday so there is the possibility they might have picked up on something. All 3 models have moved the high presure south. UKMO is still just about in the perfect zone. We need to see some northward corrections from GFS and ECM though.

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

    OP the warmest member by 1st March. Its still worrying that it copied what the 12z GFS was showing yesterday so there is the possibility they might have picked up on something. All 3 models have moved the high presure south. UKMO is still just about in the perfect zone. We need to see some northward corrections from GFS and ECM though.

    Plenty of GEFS 00z perturbations are more severe and the control is a great run..next week looks like becoming bitterly cold with an increasing risk of snow from the east and even the ne / n..delighted with the trend!:cold::)

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

    Plenty of GEFS 00z perturbations are more severe and the control is a great run..next week looks like becoming bitterly cold with an increasing risk of snow from the east and even the ne / n..delighted with the trend!:cold::)

    Ditto..................still all good this morning

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    Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

    I think there can now be quite high confidence in a bitter east wind next week starting late Sunday or early Monday 

    After that is up for grabs - lots of options with some more exciting than others 

    Last nights ECM was one possibility - this mornings another . It will stay cold but will it be cold and snowy is impossible to pin down at the moment 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    Well I'm not going to get into the emotional side of models as I feel there excellent across the board.

    Outlook wintry ice days possible and exact position of the blocking high is not certain so a little south or little north is always a possibility.

    But in general the northwest would experience less from this cold spell.

    As for deep cold and upper air temps even minus 8 would do the trick but likely to be at least -10 perhaps -12 which is the best for years.

    Longevity looks pretty good although the gem sucks the heights right past Greenland into eastern seaboard of the united states, but maintains a cold theme here in the UK as lows drop under the migrating heights GFS does the same but nowhere near as erratic.

    But this pattern screaming reload.

    Cold start to spring and at last all the Jigsaw puzzle came together with a very impressive stratospheric warming.

    At least a 2 week cold spell.

    Patients was always key this winter.

    And we'll done on the seasonal forecasting from net weather pretty much nailed it.

    Very exciting week or two coming up and over analysis just not worth it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Sam Mithell said:

    So it is a denifinate now the its pusbed to far south ? Or likley to go back to how it was yesterday?

    Just some inter run variations, the theme is still the same, no T-Shirts from Sunday until......... quite a while :) very cold indeed!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    26 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    ecm to me actually looks snowier for more parts of the UK next week than previous runs.

    Down to two things - the shortwave heading sw which will give some areas a couple inches and the trough dropping south at the back end of the run though that won’t be too snowy on the ground as the warm sector is too pronounced (highs next thurs 5/6 c). 

    That evolution is ok if we can back it a couple hundred miles nw so the cold stays in place across the uk

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    5 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

    Well I'm not going to get into the emotional side of models as I feel there excellent across the board.

    Outlook wintry ice days possible and exact position of the blocking high is not certain so a little south or little north is always a possibility.

    But in general the northwest would experience less from this cold spell.

    As for deep cold and upper air temps even minus 8 would do the trick but likely to be at least -10 perhaps -12 which is the best for years.

    Longevity looks pretty good although the gem sucks the heights right past Greenland into eastern seaboard of the united states, but maintains a cold theme here in the UK as lows drop under the migrating heights GFS does the same but nowhere near as erratic.

    But this pattern screaming reload.

    Cold start to spring and at last all the Jigsaw puzzle came together with a very impressive stratospheric warming.

    At least a 2 week cold spell.

    Patients was always key this winter.

    And we'll done on the seasonal forecasting from net weather pretty much nailed it.

    Very exciting week or two coming up and over analysis just not worth it.

    At the moment I would say v cold out to the 6 March at least. Whether that’s supportive of snow all the way through is unknown. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    Anyone got the latest model verification stats? And does anyone know if ICON has any stats available?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Be interesting to see how close the ecm chart at  168 actually looks like at t 0 so I’m saving it.

    It  looks very odd anyway, the way it suddenly drops down and rotates  from the excellent looking t144 chart,

    will look very different next run I would imagine 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
    21 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

    Just a Gentle reminder that if you’re posting (sarcastic) disappointment at this morning’s output, there are a vast number of people reading that <trust> what posters in here are writing. That’s right! If you were to take every comment on face value then it’s all quite bewildering. We have been really really spoiled with mega charts the last five days and the 00z always seems to be the cause of the most woe every morning without fail there’s been an air of despair and for the 9000th time this week, it’s one run.

    So whilst we have the willy waving, despair and ‘I told you so’ chat once again from the morning runs, please think about your post and it’s content.

    Thanks!

    Who said we were being sarcastic?

    The op run is genuinely concerning for those not on the east coast., As has been pointed out before convection in parts of west midlands and North West precipitation will not get over the Pennines with the warm uppers as shown by the op run this morning. Much of the fervour and excitement for those of us on the west coast has been around  the potential potency of this spell. It's absolutely no use it being absolutely freezing without the potential for convective snow showers and troughs to form in the North Sea - which this run gives to be fair - and over land or surviving the mountains. It's this second part that's cause for disappointment; you're talking about the difference between a few dustings and a few inches compared to yesterday's run in this part of the country. The only positive signal is the switch to a northerly/Greenland tracking towards the end, but that's in FI

    Edited by Deep Snow please
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Still some very good outputs this morning but the ECM is still intent on making more of the shortwave to the nw between T120hrs and T144hrs.

    The UKMO takes this nw the ECM over the top of the high which then forces the high further south on its eastern flank.

    You can clearly see in the De Bilt ensembles the largest cluster maintains the easterly for a few more days.

    Until the issue of that shortwave is resolved then any detail past T120hrs is going to be sketchy.

    The Omega block is likely to verify but the transition to that is open to further change.

     

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Not a huge amount of precipitation on UKMO extended 

    ukm2.2018022800_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.b97e403246091057f28305ee94b3a5cf.png

    Proper e/ne flow.There WILL be more preciptation than shown

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    11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Not a huge amount of precipitation on UKMO extended 

    ukm2.2018022800_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.b97e403246091057f28305ee94b3a5cf.png

    Gavin, it's an Easterly flow - which is usually quite dry for a lot of areas, the models DO NOT pick up on convection as the winds cross over the warmer sea creating instability which will = heavy snow showers, predominantly in the East. 

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    15 minutes ago, Sam Mithell said:

    So it is a denifinate now the its pusbed to far south ? Or likley to go back to how it was yesterday?

    Nothing is to far south or to far north it's exactly the pattern need for cold especially this time of year.

    And watch for some interesting developments cropping up.

    With shortwaves bringing longer periods of wintry precipitation.

    With no marginal involved relax fellow cold weather fans.

    2008 see snowfall here on the south coast in April.

    so this event is up there with the best.

    There will be small differences but I'm not expecting anything overly dramatic other than cold cold cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Not a huge amount of precipitation on UKMO extended 

    ukm2.2018022800_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.b97e403246091057f28305ee94b3a5cf.png

    Considering precipitation is coming from the east I'm not surprised by this chart.

    Until a undercut from the southwest moves in then that will only aid in drawing even more cold from the east.

    Wintry weather seems to bring out the bipolar relax it's still all good.

    Edited by MR EXTREMES
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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    Just now, bluearmy said:

    Down to two things - the shortwave heading sw which will give some areas a couple inches and the trough dropping south at the back end of the run though that won’t be too snowy on the ground as the warm sector is too pronounced (highs next thurs 5/6 c). 

    That evolution is ok if we can back it a couple hundred miles nw so the cold stays in place across the uk

    Yes I can see now. my comment was only based on the quickest of glances at the 500hp op

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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