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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Looks like pub run is living upto it’s name tonight. All this talk about shortwaves etc is great. Because I think it was nick Sussex earlier who said move shortwaves the better. As this will cause instability in the flow. I.e lots of powder snowfall happy days. Brace yourself it’s coming :cold::cold:

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: Cottingham
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Cottingham

    Wouldn't surprise me if -20C uppers hit somewhere in Scotland on this run :shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Whilst I agree that the synoptics are amazing, the cold is being slowly delayed. We had the -12 850 hitting the East Coast on midday Sunday yesterday, not it's 6am on Monday. 

    All that is happening are the models are slowly falling inline with the ECM which always had the coldest air coming in overnight Sunday into the Monday morning, the GFS has slowed but it was probably too fast to start with.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

    With a slacker pattern will showers struggle to get in land.... uaual carvets apply of course

    The caveat being inland areas happily brewing up their own showers out of this :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    disturbance in the flow like EC? snowier potentially then, beast delayed to Wednesday, but Tuesday potentially great 

    gfs-0-168.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    3 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

    The coldest uppers seem to be always post 144. The Easterly seems a lot slacker with more shortwaves causing a less clean flow. Not sure we will be looking at -15 or more uppers any more. Always seems to be delayed by 6 hours then another 6 hours and so on. 

    Think it depends on your point of view tbh. For most I'm sure aslong as there is enough instability to create convective showers then who cares if its -10 uppers or -15 uppers aslong as its snowing.

    Obviously for those who want too see that magical -15 hitting then it may take a while and it might not at all. Again what we seeing is just another variation and the overall trend is clear that cold air will be heading our way, the questions will be how quick it will arrive and will it arrive with enough instability to create convective showers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.

    I know precipitation charts for snow can be purely figurative but there's enough solidity in the forecast for strong suggestion of precipitation type and general placement. The beast is clear to see, and pinches the East of England with a snowy claw. 150.  :rolleyes: 

    GFS Beasty.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
    2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    Whilst I agree that the synoptics are amazing, the cold is being slowly delayed. We had the -12 850 hitting the East Coast on midday Sunday yesterday, not it's 6am on Monday. 

    And the problem is? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
    2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

    -17 uppers in the north of Scotland :cold:

    No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

    Incredible, don't think I've ever seen that before for my location.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (Central)

    Well the high is significantly further north on the 18z at 168hrs onwards, plus brutal cold getting into Scotland!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield
    1 minute ago, radiohead said:

    Absolutely stunning and so much better than the 12Z at this timeframe.

    gfs-0-189-3h.png?18

    Stunning. Just look at that fetch! :cold:

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    Posted
  • Location: Cricklewood, north London
  • Location: Cricklewood, north London

    I am also getting annoyed by the delay - don't get me wrong, it looks sensational...but I'm becoming more of a nervous wreck with each run!

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Oh. My. God.  Epic stuff on the 18z

    gfs-1-192.png?18 gfsnh-0-186.png?18

    And we're back in upgrade territory folks.  Awesome run

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Cold shot core punches further north on this over Scotland, still very cold across the whole country . Location of the cold pool will shift from run to run but at least we are still getting the main thrust.

    Getting mighty close to the point where we can have real confidence of a signifcant cold spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
    1 minute ago, radiohead said:

    Absolutely stunning and so much better than the 12Z at this timeframe.

    gfs-0-189-3h.png?18

    Totally crazy chart. Unlikely to be verify, surely!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Windchill will freeze your flame on your lighter. Wow 

    IMG_1250.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Spin my nipple nuts and send me to Alaska! -  my reaction on the pub run so far tonight (not sure that would help me enjoy the cold spell though!) (original quote Kryten in Red Dwarf)

    T192

    gfs-0-192.png?18

    gfs-1-192.png?18

    Surely this is going t end in mayhem!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Now that's a very strong SE flow with -14/-15 uppers, if you don't get convective snow showers from that in the SE...

    gfs-0-192.png?18gfs-1-192.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

    And the problem is? 

    Jeez.....there is no problem. I was merely pointing out that today the cold is more delayed on this run compared to the same run yesterday.

    I'm not bigging up mild weather or claiming this ain't going to happen just pointing out a fact.

    Really is like swimming in a pool of piranahs in here sometimes!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, Big Snow said:

    I am also getting annoyed by the delay - don't get me wrong, it looks sensational...but I'm becoming more of a nervous wreck with each run!

    but the delay could mean a snowier tuesday? beast is delayed due to disturbance in the flow, -8 uppers 

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    Posted
  • Location: Warminster (Wiltshire)
  • Weather Preferences: what's the bloody point when you live in Britain
  • Location: Warminster (Wiltshire)
    2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

    Absolutely stunning and so much better than the 12Z at this timeframe.

    gfs-0-189-3h.png?18

    That really is quite something! The military will be digging people out if this comes off ?

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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