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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Posted
  • Location: Cottingham
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Cottingham
    Just now, chionomaniac said:

    Basically it is a messy block on this run rather than something cleaner cut. ( for those who are fussy looking for perfect synoptics)

    Yup and that perhaps isn't a surprise, the flow looks more unstable as well. At the same time theres nothing really to stop the cold pool over Scandi advancing west :)

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    Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

    Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

    Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Basically it is a messy block on this run rather than something cleaner cut. ( for those who are fussy looking for perfect synoptics)

    Is that not just a sign of more instability in the flow?  

    Or in simpler terms a more snowy run?!  :D

    Edited by Kentish Snowman
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Basically it is a messy block on this run rather than something cleaner cut. ( for those who are fussy looking for perfect synoptics)

    Nothing messy about that advection into Greenland though...

    gfsnh-0-156.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
    Just now, SizzlingHeat said:

    The coldest uppers seem to be always post 144. The Easterly seems a lot slacker with more shortwaves causing a less clean flow. Not sure we will be looking at -15 or more uppers any more. Always seems to be delayed by 6 hours then another 6 hours and so on. 

    Except that it has always been sometime between late Sunday and Monday that the real cold is supposed to arrive....

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Some of these charts are that good we may never see this again, this is going to be an historic cold period for the time of year I’m sure. Lots of talk of day max ms and snow cover, however what kind of night minimums could we expect? In snow cover etc???

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    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

    The cold pool to the east is staggering at patch of -30 air over Scandinavia. That disturbance heading straight for North East England at 156hrs looks interesting 

    Screenshot_20180220-221811.png

    Screenshot_20180220-222103.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Much better for me with the core of the high further NW. 

    gfsnh-0-162.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    5 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Yes cold is slower on this run..... by about 6 hours. lets hope that it isn't delayed by 6 hours every run lol or it will never get here.

    Yeah it next to makes no difference, pretty much all the runs over the last few days have the cold air starting to arrive between 12z Sunday and 12z Monday and its still somewhat shifting around, so nothing to worry about.

    Anyway cracking 18z, we are almost forgetting just how exceptional they are synopitcally. These are probably once in a decade synoptic, maybe even more than that on some of the colder runs...

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
  • Location: Bexleyheath (south), Kent
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    Nothing messy about that advection into Greenland though...

    gfsnh-0-156.png?18

    What a chart. Greenland about to turn yellow. Pattern getting locked. If only it were early January........ JOKE!

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

    Please for god sake make the most of this people, because I would struggle to draw a more perfect set of runs. This is about as cold a direction as we will ever see our source of wind come from, and that is straight from the Siberian ice box across thousands of miles of land. Enjoy this while you can, right now. 

    The white walkers breath is being aimed straight at our little island! As mentioned above, -30 uppers cutting through Russia due west..

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Yep, good run this. Everyone to their own but for me I much prefer this to the 12Z run. Pressure slightly lower with the core of the heights slightly further north. All very small changes in the grand scheme of things though.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Nick L said:

    It baffles me how some are managing to find negatives in the current output. It is not being delayed, no idea where you're getting that from. If you can't enjoy the current output then you'll never enjoy any winter synoptic set up.

    Whilst I agree that the synoptics are amazing, the cold is being slowly delayed. We had the -12 850 hitting the East Coast on midday Sunday yesterday, not it's 6am on Monday. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    For those in the north complaining about the southwards shift of the 12z GFS....

    gfs-0-168.png?18   gfs-1-168.png?18

    I am not coughing up for a snow plough to get you out of this mess.... :rofl:

    There is a front in there crossing from east to west bringing heavy snow across the northern half of the UK in particular and that cold exiting Scandinavia is simply outrageous.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Like chionomaniac says, it's a little more messy, but in the end it turns nice and unsettled. About as stable as Donald Trump.

    -20c 850s over the North Sea!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    Much better for me with the core of the high further NW. 

    gfsnh-0-162.png?18

    Good chance this run we see a low develop and slam into England from the east I think.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    Just had a quick look at the precipitation charts. Not going to post them as people will get pointlessly hung up on the detail but, this is looking like a much more snowy run than the 12z.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    1 minute ago, Nick L said:

    It baffles me how some are managing to find negatives in the current output. It is not being delayed, no idea where you're getting that from. If you can't enjoy the current output then you'll never enjoy any winter synoptic set up.

    Hubloodyrrah to that!  This is another stunner of a run, how some can complain about this leaves me aghast. This place :cc_confused:

    174 is tremendous

    gfsnh-0-174.png?18 gfs-1-174.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    3 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

    The coldest uppers seem to be always post 144. The Easterly seems a lot slacker with more shortwaves causing a less clean flow. Not sure we will be looking at -15 or more uppers any more. Always seems to be delayed by 6 hours then another 6 hours and so on. 

    :cc_confused:  Using today's 12z runs as a yardstick the coldest air has always been scheduled to arrive somewhere between 120 and 144 (Sunday into Monday) so everything is perfectly on track in my eyes.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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