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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:

Looks like an East/South Easterly?

Colder and colder air moving in during Sunday. 

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4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Lovely 120hr fax chart 

fax120s.gif

Remarkably similar position to 12z GFS with the 528 dam line coming over eastern England

GFSOPEU12_120_33.thumb.png.5b91552c9e48fe5bfd490d18433e3d89.png

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6 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Looks like an East/South Easterly?

Winds don't blow parallel to the isobars, so more easterly.

Edited by Nick F

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Even on Friday into Saturday, we are really going to be feeling the first nip in the air of what is to come! Values of -2 Friday night will be feeling bitter in that cutting ESE wind. 

400 miles east, that brutal cold pool is already making inroads into Germany. This is 3 days away! I can scarcely believe it! 

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GFS falls in line with the majority consensus-

HP centred at a better (higher) latitude than was the case on the 12z

gfsnh-0-114.png?18

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GFS at 114 vs 120 UKMO and ECM

GFS gfsnh-0-114.png?18 UKMO Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions ECM ECH1-120.GIF?20-0

GFS and UKMO a good match I'd say

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Seems to be stalling over Europe at bit at the T+120 to T+123 mark. 

Edited by Deep Snow please

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1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Seems to be stalling over Europe at bit at the T+120 mark. 

Don't worry it's knocking 

IMG_1685.PNG

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Doesn't matter if it's slower. The cold is still coming. The way the high is positioning now, it looks like we won't have a repeat of high pressure slipping back south later, as we saw on the 12Z.

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A nice way of seeing this is over the northern hemisphere view

GFS 18z/12z and the UKMO as a comparison though slightly later.

gfsnh-0-132.png?18  gfsnh-0-138.png?12  UN144-21.GIF?20-18

The 18z has the elogated shape to the high pushing further east compared to the more rounded shape shown on the 12z. This is more akin to the Euros and should allow a deeper cold pool to advect westwards.

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1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Doesn't matter if it's slower. The cold is still coming. The way the high is positioning now, it looks like we won't have a repeat of high pressure slipping back south later, as we saw on the 12Z.

Be more prolonged snow for areas lucky enough to benefit from the transitional rain to snow event. All good.

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Yes cold is slower on this run..... by about 6 hours. lets hope that it isn't delayed by 6 hours every run lol or it will never get here.

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1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Doesn't matter if it's slower. The cold is still coming. The way the high is positioning now, it looks like we won't have a repeat of high pressure slipping back south later, as we saw on the 12Z.

In a way it does matter

 

Every delay causes concern. Heights look further South to me and the cold is piling into France

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Massive cold pool to the east at 138. Significantly bigger than the 12z...seems the slow evolution maybe worth the (wait which Blue Army alluded to a few days ago).

18z gfsnh-1-138.png?18 12z gfsnh-1-144.png?12

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I think it's going there, Greenland, early ! T 150

gfs-0-150.png?18

64884B16-C8A6-4D58-AED8-D61F6FBCC7AA.png

The bottom chart is not to do with me but I can't delete it!

Ali - I think we've crossed wavelengths!

Edited by Mike Poole

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I spy some -30c uppers to our east this run

64884B16-C8A6-4D58-AED8-D61F6FBCC7AA.png

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Basically it is a messy block on this run rather than something cleaner cut. ( for those who are fussy looking for perfect synoptics)

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The coldest uppers seem to be always post 144. The Easterly seems a lot slacker with more shortwaves causing a less clean flow. Not sure we will be looking at -15 or more uppers any more. Always seems to be delayed by 6 hours then another 6 hours and so on. 

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Despite the slight delay, the cold pool is deeper, bigger and better placed for us compared to the 12z:

18z vs 12z:

 

5A64B6D7-8170-4EEE-8A6D-A86BAFF3DBA4-2306-00000281530208B5.png

2672A08A-73C7-477F-A22B-5F5B45CBFE77-2306-000002815C229A9C.png

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