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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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12 minutes ago, That ECM said:

And possibly the se but we're not allowed to see that bit(much to the north members delight:D)

If you look really closely there is 1 pixel of blue just out of where the southeast corner would be. 😀👍

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15 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

No worries, we wouldn't want that.......tell you what, let's play a game.....I start counting 1, 2, 3 up to 100 and when I guess the right number of cm's, just say "STOP" :wink:

1001, 1002, 1003.....

 

BFTP

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7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Just comparing ECM 12z and GFS 12z, there looks to be a significant difference at around T192 where the ECM has pulled the High through towards Greenland, GFS much slower:

ECM1-192.GIF?20-0

gfs-0-192.png?12

As others have alluded to, and we saw from the later charts, this means in the case of ECM lower pressure and disturbances thereafter leading to potentially significant snow.  As ECM is the best performing model, I wonder if this slight potential change of direction might be repeated in future runs.

Worth noting though that the GEFS was a little quicker in lowering pressure so a little more in line with ECM. I take your point though :)

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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

1001, 1002, 1003.....

 

BFTP

Fred, now you're just taking the piste........notice the apt satire?.....lololol

anyhoos, just over an hour to go to our next dose of predicted snowmageddon courtesy of the 18z GFS!

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I'm running out of superlatives to describe the current model output...tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean is wow..just wow!!..can't see any way back to mild for a long time!:cold-emoji:

ECMAVGEU12_144_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_168_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_2.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

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Best ECM ensembles yet from what I have seen, many have that shortwave diving down from Norway which regardless of where it goes prevents any pressure increases over the UK and keeps the core of the upper high further north. This in turn keeps that cold and unstable flow going for longer. Great runs and I feel more confident again after seeing this.

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Just now, Steel City Skies said:

So for you uppers around -5 or -6C then? :p

Or lower, don't get me wrong I'd love these models to come to fruition as they are some of the best for a long while ,but I think we are entering the most crucial 24 to 72 hours for the start weather charts up to 5 days which might get better and better for a while with no atlantic spoilers m but also I feel day by day beyond 5 days situations and setups will change daily as always in cold spells as the models find it harder to handle colder synoptics 

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so... the beast awakens at +48hrs

ECM1-48.thumb.gif.5db1f86888067f181c22f67d9fab89e6.gif

and mutates into a snow-making monster 

ECM1-192.thumb.gif.438c06f7faf1785c73e0a5f9b371f456.gif

local authorities are organising replacement bus services-

atat.thumb.jpg.8a3c6251a493f5f061cb50a63b249fd5.jpg

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Max day time temp next Wednesday.....thermals day, most likely thermals week, maybe thermals fortnight :cold:

When I came back on this forum at the start of October winter was already written off by some.....glad we all persevered with it......just goes to show how fascinating and unpredictable our weather can be.

2825DEB6-4432-4839-8C1A-40F20964C578.gif

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The ECMWF model cannot advect showers inland sufficiently. This is known and accepted fact, it is why HIRES models are used to forecast convective activity.

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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Do Meteogroup have access to the same models as the METO?

They do not have access to MOGREPS as far as I know or the UK HIres. They use the EURO4 and EC as basis for their forecast and MOS.

 

Briefing documents from the UK with the above data are distributed to most major met institutions but the raw data is expense and is as far as I know - not used by MG.

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1 minute ago, Matty M said:

The ECMWF model cannot advect showers inland sufficiently. This is known and accepted fact, it is why HIRES models are used to forecast convective activity.

I have watched the ECM snow accumulation charts for here all winter. They are absolutely useless.  The GFS is better but still poor. Even the high resolution models at very short range can be dreadful with shower activity and snow accumulation. There's is no point taking such charts seriously, especially at a range of a week.

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5 minutes ago, shotski said:

Liam Dutton Just tweeted this exact chart stating accumulating snow not great. A little confusing 

Come on peeps no one knows what snow potential there is yet and this is the model thread not snow watch.....talking of which the GFS will start churning out shortly and hopefully it doesn’t blow up the Scandinavian high as much this time round :) 

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33 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

So what are we expecting from this GFS pub run, consistency with the 12z or a veer towards the ECM 12z?

Forgetting the nonsense in the recent posts about Liam Dutton  - which now seem to have been removed - edit! (who I don't rate after his provably wrong comments about the GFS 6 and 18 runs),  I think we will see a move to the ECM tonight with a quicker move  to Greenland around T192 bringing in snow opportunities for significant parts of the country thereafter.   That's my punt anyway!

Edited by Mike Poole

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The 18z suite will not provide too much extra info for us. 

Edited by Matty M

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While we await the GFS, the ICON looking fine & dandy at t72.

iconnh-0-72.thumb.png.53ac218d90d0dd631133f3a7c46a6757.pngiconnh-1-72.thumb.png.87800a52fb36fb6a4397e4ae2b0a333a.png

 

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12 minutes ago, Matty M said:

They do not have access to MOGREPS as far as I know or the UK HIres. They use the EURO4 and EC as basis for their forecast and MOS.

 

Briefing documents from the UK with the above data are distributed to most major met institutions but the raw data is expense and is as far as I know - not used by MG.

Untrue. They have access to the full UKV suite, the 1.5km Met model, like we do at MetDesk.

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ICON is well on its way! Looks to be a bit quicker than its 12z also!

3B10A4F9-4554-4532-B86C-50825A3A0DB0.thumb.png.51ac2698e2cd789e27c57a3c40593d52.png

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Something that's caught my eye today is a (tentative but present) trend toward a stronger and flatter jet tracking through Iberia and on a good way across the Med. 

This works well for us as LPs then continue east with no build-up of warmer uppers trying to push our deep cold away - just a bit of a nudge with snow potential from that - and then (and this is what really gets my attention) and they set up an easterly flow that can transport further deep cold our way even as the blocking shifts toward Greenland.

Such an outcome is hard to see in ensemble height means because the heights are actually pretty low where the deep continental cold is located under relatively weak ridging. So we're left just waiting to see if it becomes a more consistent theme among operational runs over the next few days. Though if anyone thinks they can see a supportive EPS cluster that'd be great :D.

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