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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Regarding Friday. UKMO & ECM both marginally better this morning from last nights viewings. As it’s been said, been a little too progressive in removing the cold uppers so quickly and I think a trend of correcting further south is on the cards.

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Worth checking out the 120 fax compared to the ukmo raw at 120 for the actual position of the low . A big difference with the human input. Much further south. 

a few of us alluded to that yesterday - some of the models were certainly off on a wild goose chase but will come back with their tails between their legs ;-)

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4 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Worth checking out the 120 fax compared to the ukmo raw at 120 for the actual position of the low . A big difference with the human input. Much further south. 

Think that is last night’s fax - so different timestamps.

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Absolutely MWB, Surface temps would remain freezing or below re Fridays Low. Beforehand were have some severe winter cold and snow showers piling in over the coming days so lots of interest to keep tabs on localy.

viewimage-27.thumb.png.4320a69984690658dc79fa1882273ae9.pngviewimage-25.thumb.png.5f7bae7ce813402bdddde2628b47f012.pngviewimage-12.thumb.png.4e4ecefc6aef4a1aa101861c16106d75.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Whilst discussing the movement of milder upper air into the UK at the end of the week, it might be worth taking this chart into consideration:

132-582UK.GIF?25-0

ECM similar - in fact on the ECM, milder air gets little further than London before pushing away again on Saturday, with temperatures not getting above 2C widely except for SW and wind facing coasts. (Sunday not updated yet).

Fronts from the south on ECM are almost all snow except right at the end on the south coast, and the first gets a long way north by Friday morning

A second front hits the SE Friday night is mostly snow except in the far SE corner.

The point is that a milder 'push' isn't going to just shove the cold out of the way - there's going to be an element of mixing which is likely to invigorate snow activity and bingo - some areas are going to receive a good dumping ;-)

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31 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

might as well bin the ecm run now at t144 there is no way the low is going to track back NW like it shows lol,have to wait a few days for the model to sort themselves out for goodness sake

# clueless 

It may be a mild outlier ( I hope ) but it cannot be discounted so easily .

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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If you look at the latter stages of the ecm this morning thats some change from yesterday's 12z

Very slack cold air over the uk and synoptics wise quite different

Imo this set up post fri isnt a done deal and with any uncertainty comes suprises

 

 

 

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Well looking at the latest runs it looks like its game on again for friday, looks like that mild sector people were worried about has gone, looks cold to me, i think that low on friday could bring alot of snow for the south coast and southern areas happy days, what do you guys think?  as im no expert thankyou

icon-0-135.png

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1 minute ago, eddy88888 said:

Well looking at the latest runs it looks like its game on again for friday, looks like that mild sector people were worried about has gone, looks cold to me, i think that low on friday could bring alot of snow for the south coast and southern areas happy days, what do you guys think?  as im no expert thankyou

icon-0-135.png

very much game on . . .

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24 minutes ago, swfc said:

If you look at the latter stages of the ecm this morning thats some change from yesterday's 12z

Very slack cold air over the uk and synoptics wise quite different

Imo this set up post fri isnt a done deal and with any uncertainty comes suprises

 

 

 

Yes although ECM looks like a different evolution after 168 with a slack Northerly developing beyond next weekend it would appear that the potential is there for some very cold temperatures especially overnight over snow cover which will hardly have been touched particularly over the Northern half of the UK.

Before that a very wintry week upcoming shown across all model output and then potential for blizzards into the weekend across the Southern half of the UK with the models edging the low further South and West on this morning's runs in comparison to the 12z and 18z runs yesterday.

Something for everyone I would suggest?!  :cold:

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A very occasional poster here but way too much emphasis on the assumption that the Atlantic can’t punch through blocking quickly. Absolutely a very chilly week coming up, no doubt about that with some exceptional synoptics but 9 our of 10 times at the 5-8 day range (whether its winter or summer blocking) when the first apparent outliers break the blocking down everyone writes it off and goes into denial usually it’s something we don’t want to see when in reality the Atlantic nearly always wins out very quickly. Down here in the south it very much looks like a quick transition back to average conditions with models indicating temps back to 7c by Friday and 10c next weekend so absolutely no snow event for those along the south coast.

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6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

A very occasional poster here but way too much emphasis on the assumption that the Atlantic can’t punch through blocking quickly. Absolutely a very chilly week coming up, no doubt about that with some exceptional synoptics but 9 our of 10 times at the 5-8 day range (whether its winter or summer blocking) when the first apparent outliers break the blocking down everyone writes it off and goes into denial usually it’s something we don’t want to see when in reality the Atlantic nearly always wins out very quickly. Down here in the south it very much looks like a quick transition back to average conditions with models indicating temps back to 7c by Friday and 10c next weekend so absolutely no snow event for those along the south coast.

I  wouldn't worry about what the models are showing next weekend. I understand to a degree were your coming from though

We can't even track accurate amount of snow showers 18 hrs away.

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So having just seen the 00z updates it seems there is a tiny movement back towards a more snowy solution for all, still too much in the way of mild air from the GFS for the SE however even there snow does increaseingly fall as the frontal system pivots SE. Also STILL a big signal for enhanced risk of freezing rain which would be an exceptional event (you only have to see how problematic they can be in the states!) This is on both the GFS and the ECM for the far south (say upto 30 miles from coast). General totals from the models seem to be 10-20cms from this, though the far south would get less for obvious reasons.

I'm going to check the ensembles and see what they are throwing up, but marginally better runs this morning from the operationals.

PS, breakdown looking highly likely, but we could still squeeze a big event out of it stil.

Edited by kold weather
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