Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

Are the lapse rates different depending on air mass?   Ecm uppers of -8 would normally give +3/+4 at 2meters wouldn't they?   This would make snowfall marginal.

Not at all. If I recall correctly, last year, we had an ice day from uppers barely below 0c as the flow was a SE'ly off the continent. It will be BITTERLY cold with that flow off the continent. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Raythan said:

What’s the 22.8 ? Feet 😂 ❄️ 

It's inches. It's the 00z anyway, hasn't been updated for the 12z yet I think

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

I think most of the country would be happy with the 13th member by the 3rd March

 

 

Edited to include graph

Ideal.PNG

That isn't the 12Z ECMWF. That is this morning's 0Z ECM ENS Ensemble member 13. Look at the text below the scale.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I wish you guys could see the precip charts on the EC. Serious disruption Tues and Wed on this run across swathes of the country.

I'm guessing it is showing way more than Weather.us?

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018022012_174_4855_215.thumb.png.982cc629cb4025365f145704df1fdb44.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2018022012_198_4855_215.thumb.png.c4bdb58c0db481f2dd0988bee1eba786.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, joggs said:

Nick,nooooooooo,take your shortwave and stic.....................lol

Very funny! :D

The shortwave isn’t a drama in the fact it could effect the initial easterly but the UKMO doesn’t have  this and will evolve differently because that shortwave is the beginning of the evolution to the omega block, it goes ne then east and then drops se later towards Scandi.

The UKMO has the best block at T144hrs aligned perfectly for the second cold blob to the east.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

There is already embedded cold and DP' s well below freezing the air temp would be neaer 0-1! Snow and temps arent black and white 

mainly just white... :wink: :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Summer Sun said:

I'm guessing it is showing way more than Weather.us?

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018022012_174_4855_215.thumb.png.982cc629cb4025365f145704df1fdb44.pngus_model-en-087-0_modez_2018022012_198_4855_215.thumb.png.c4bdb58c0db481f2dd0988bee1eba786.png

Those charts are useless, way overestimated any snow from the westerly snow showers we've had, yet missed the one time when it did give us laying snow for more than a few hours!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think I'm becoming a tad desensitized to the outputs now.....let's look at the 12z ECM.......hmm, lots of snow forecast for next week?....how much?.....12 inches?....just 12 inches?......T850's only -14C?.......boring!.........change the record....seen it all before :80:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What a run!..Ecm 12z delivers what most of us want to see which is snow, sub zero maxima  and penetrating frosts!:cold:

144_mslp850.png

144_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850.png

168_mslp850uk.png

192_mslp850.png

192_mslp850uk.png

216_mslp850.png

216_thickuk.png

240_mslp850.png

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp850uk.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ajpoolshark said:

I think I'm becoming a tad desensitized to the outputs now.....let's look at the 12z ECM.......hmm, lots of snow forecast for next week?....how much?.....12 inches?....just 12 inches?......T850's only -14C?.......boring!.........change the record....seen it all before :80:

Rubbish isn't it. I was hoping for -16C uppers. A rubbish ECM all round.

Still only one run ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Please try to refrain from bbc-snow probs charts.

There is a laged data issue with both the ^^above mentioned.

And also.. the convectional rates @ppn discharge...are of nowcast situ.

Although massive in scale atm!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

It dives SW from the wash and exits probably around the Brighton area.

If it does happen, expect the models to steadily upgrade this feature and make it stronger, that is what happens typically.

It’s pretty well the identical path that the 00z run had 

 

Just now, IPredictASnowStorm said:

Just seen the bbc weather  they didn't mention snow for next week  just going to be dry and cold

tbh, I wouldn’t be mentioning snow either.  They don’t have to (unlike the Exeter 6/15 dayer which has to make a text forecast for the period) and there is still time for the emphasis to change. freezing cold - yep, snowy?  Not certain. 

And confidence in that solution days 7/10 as it broadly follows the largest eps cluster 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

I think I'm becoming a tad desensitized to the outputs now.....let's look at the 12z ECM.......hmm, lots of snow forecast for next week?....how much?.....12 inches?....just 12 inches?......T850's only -14C?.......boring!.........change the record....seen it all before :80:

Yes absolute Shte!  I want -50c EASTERLIES! 😤

 

BFTP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I wish people would stop posting these inaccurate charts, they're utter nonsense. I know they're the only freely available EC snow depths but they're utter tosh.

Can we get a Nick S style Nick L doodle then :D pretty please 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I wish people would stop posting these inaccurate charts, they're utter nonsense. I know they're the only freely available EC snow depths but they're utter tosh.

I'll add to this, it will all depend on what the ratio of liquid water to snow ratio these maps are using too. Dry snow will put down about 3 times more than wet snow for the same equivalent of water.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some truly amazing outputs today. Whilst the broad synoptic pattern looks reasonably set it's the detail that we await and will be fascinating to watch unfold. By this time Saturday we should have a clearer understanding of what might be lurking in terms of actual snow amounts, until then I will go by my trusty formula which worked well in 2009/10... Total daily pages in mod thread / 2 = snow depth in cm. Enjoy the ride folks. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I'll add to this, it will all depend on what the ratio of liquid water to snow ratio these maps are using too. Dry snow will put down about 3 times more than wet snow for the same equivalent of water.

Is there a way of predicting weather snow will be dry or wet from the current model output?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, CreweCold said:

Bar the GFS (which is actually quite a boring run in the context of what we have been seeing lately), the modelling has introduced an element of high risk high reward early next week.

The GEM shows what can go wrong in such circumstances i.e the coldest flow is terminated to our E as a disturbance spins up and heads more N then W than direct W. This allows all sorts of phasing issues to take place.

The ECM, on the other hand, shows the flip side of the coin...we get a discrete feature heading due W in the flow which ushers in even colder 850s.

Given the evidence tonight I'd suggest that AT PRESENT a disturbance of some sort is likely to form. ECM probably more on the money here than the GEM but the atmosphere is a dynamic entity so we'll see a state of flux RE this over the next day or two.

Good post with some valid points,but beyond 5 days from any given day the models won't stay the same run by run and if anyone can work them out they should and I would use that power to win the lottery, how I see things from past experience is we should stick to the here and next few days until next weeks set ups are this side of 120 hours otherwise we risk ending up maybe being very disappointed like many times before.

Don't get me wrong we ,I believe we are almost certainly going into a weather swing reversal but as for how cold with what precip and where we will have to wait a few more days ,so patience is still needed for a while longer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I wish people would stop posting these inaccurate charts, they're utter nonsense. I know they're the only freely available EC snow depths but they're utter tosh.

That would still be 2 inches more snow than I have seen all winter....bank!

 

I anticipate these charts as poor to useless mind!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think it’s outrageous that the national broadcaster turned its back on the UKMO

I totally agree with this , ironic it’s just changed before next week ! When they met office will show why they are World leaders , instead the bbc have changed from using a multi million pound super computer to using ... 

29643080-66BA-4DF8-975D-0F2224292997.thumb.jpeg.3f7f339d169369c62bb653bb17dbadeb.jpeg

BD155459-EF4E-4532-933D-8161B89E0F19.thumb.png.6b181da938f8a0cf283a19f0293a3b7a.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Deep Snow please said:

Is there a way of predicting weather snow will be dry or wet from the current model output?

Well for this spell it will be dry, dew points are so low and contrary to some fretting posts on here it is so far from marginal it isn't worth worrying about!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...