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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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ICON has blizzard like conditions for southern parts should the snow push north. Wind gusts 50-60mph no doubt higher over exposed locations.

18_117_ukwindvector_gust.png?cb=41

Now at the same timeframe the snow is only affecting southern coastal counties but I do not expect ICON at that range to have much of a handle on convective snow showers streaming in from the east.

 

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2 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:

ICON has blizzard like conditions for southern parts should the snow push north. Wind gusts 50-60mph no doubt higher over exposed locations.

18_117_ukwindvector_gust.png?cb=41

Now at the same timeframe the snow is only affecting southern coastal counties but I do not expect ICON at that range to have much of a handle on convective snow showers streaming in from the east.

 

Would you expect much of the E/NE to be peppered with convective snow in that scenario?

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1 minute ago, NickR said:

Would you expect much of the E/NE to be peppered with convective snow in that scenario?

On the same model eastern coastal counties seem to be favourable for snow showers, though the inland penetration is considerably lower when compared to Tues/Weds. You'd think so though given even stronger winds on Thursday. 

18_114_ukpreciptype.png?cb=46

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1 minute ago, NickR said:

Would you expect much of the E/NE to be peppered with convective snow in that scenario?

i'd expect the whole of the east, down as far as the Thames estuary to be effected by convective snow - in an easterly, the minimum sea reach is over 100 miles which is more than enough for decent convection . . .

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Monday midday the beast is in IMG_1807.thumb.PNG.ad4f6edd23dde6b26c8a67bf8bf7f37b.PNG

The snow starting to come in IMG_1808.thumb.PNG.2d722af723c9778ffc5a7c8775c380a4.PNG

Min and max temps looking very cold IMG_1809.thumb.PNG.cd5b071bcc5e1bbe659ce65e9faff6ac.PNGIMG_1810.thumb.PNG.392f83c343b44f6efa0a10c51beeb405.PNG

what a great start to the week ?

Mmmmm ? not if your working on a roof ??

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Just now, abruzzi spur said:

South. Everything has gone south I tell you!  

I suppose at my age that's inevitable.  Must get down the gym more.

Lol you talking about Fridays low? Or the cold spell in general? 

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2 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Lol you talking about Fridays low? Or the cold spell in general? 

I think he's talking about his giblets. 

GFS 18z only out to Wednesday (so far) confirms the above. FWIW 18z looks even colder in the short-medium range!

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3 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:

I think he's talking about his giblets. 

GFS 18z only out to Wednesday (so far) confirms the above. FWIW 18z looks even colder in the short-medium range!

That’s a positive sign 

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3 hours ago, sawan said:

Heavy persistent snowfall Tuesday morning, from the NE through to midlands into south wales,Some disruption to travel and school closures!. M4 southwards still look dry at this point

image.thumb.png.5db9ac637e363a9831dcb096f9dda5a9.png 

Just catching up on the models- I think u missed the streamer over my area of NW kent? (were south of the M4)

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Just now, Ayrshire weather said:

At a loss why 12z and 18z are almost identical yet almost 1 week away! Something not right here my guess is that models are struggling with the affects of the Cold and the second SSW effect its almost like the models have stalled and unsure how to progress! :wallbash:

Screen Shot 2018-02-24 at 22.03.51.png

We have excellent agreement on the cold. Where the difficulties come in is how the low to the SW impacts our cold thereafter :)

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