Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Recommended Posts

34 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Just commenting on what the models are showing. A ESE,ly isn't a very good direction for the far SE due to the very short sea fetch. Even im hoping for a change in the flow from the model output towards a more E,ly with less of a S,ly element.

You’re looking at 500hpa lines. 750hpa is absolutely fine and that’s what counts.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

Posted Images

1 minute ago, pages said:

I wonder if all the models are wrong after 96hr range, we have seen the Greenland high going further west run on run and there are weak residual heights to the north.  the remains of vortex dropping south into scandie/Russia have also been modelled further east over time.

The Ecm has now showed the low coming up from the south west to be modelled to west of us. is it possible the Greenland high may actually go even further west into Canada and we end up with stronger heights building to the north with a split flow with some energy going north east between the canadain high and our new developing block and most energy going under with heights rebuilding north east. that would also provide a route for the remains of the vortex to get back to Greenland

I have never been convinced we would end up with west base -NAO. maybe models really struggling to catch on to new pattern change with effects from 2nd warming.

It's not unheard of for a second SSW event to destroy the momentum of a cold spell... 2010 being the most recent example of that.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Hmmm - call a spade a spade... but charts and indications tonight are less good. SSW suddenly set to end by tomorrow, and strat forecasts very quick to move the upper forcing for the north atlantic high to a very west based position by week's end. I would imagine that op runs are putting 2 and 2 together on this basis.

It looks a very swift transition to me in the runs - curiously swift. Not time tonight to post any specific charts - but fingers crossed it is a signal that is being picked up and moved too quickly... and that the MetO text, updated only a few hours ago, means that MOGREPS has stuck to its guns and modelled the speed of change more accurately. More tomorrow - hopefully models will swing back.

Response to a signal is what I'm thinking. We have to remember that the models are crunching the data and its been fairly consistant over the past week as we count down. New chapters will be coming into view but the plot could be misconstrude by sudden mild thrown into a nitrogen pot. We shall see.

Enjoy what ever falls your way and dont feel its the end of the world if this spell passes you by.

Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

There are a few reasons why the output has trended this way. Not least is the influence of highish heights and slp in the mid atlantic draining further nw and allowing the neg nao  to go very west based with the latest eps suite very sw/ne based on the lw trough. the acceleration of the suite to what we see now quite unusual in what is quite a short timescale for the ens

the cold pool ejects too quickly and too far wsw (which allows it to phase with the southern arm). I recall gfs showing som thing similar  the other evening and we all thought it had gone a bit nuts.  if it ends this way then so be it but would be a bit of a shame for it to go so quickly - after all, it’s  taken about thirty years to get it here !!

I am inclined to agree with this. The GFS evolution is quite interesting if you look in to it a bit too:

Shortwave over northern greece that seems to be thrown off from the low heading northeast on to Russia:

gfs-0-90.png?12

Some time later it causes the formation of a small high over the adriatic/balkans at the exact time the low is coming in over iberia...Almost a mini block, in itself crucial as it sets the direction for warmer air:

 

gfs-0-108.png?12gfs-1-114.png?12

By Friday there is a sector of warmer air pushing in to the cold, but, the low already begins to close this off with wraparound.

 

gfs-1-132.png?12

Leaving a knifedge -4 850hpa isotherm that could replace the M4 on a road map on Friday lunchtime

gfs-1-144.png?12

Two key questions for me actually are:

1. How much will that shortwave actually cause the formation of the mini high and....will the low bow so easily to the presence of that weak high over the balkans.

2. How far north will the warm sector get, it will be heavily modified by the microclimate of the alps.

Note, this is just me trying to explain what I see...it is not a prediction.

Any thoughts on this also appreciated.

 

 

 

 

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

who are you and what have you done with frosty??

bring him back, or,

large.thumb.jpg.441c6f2a0125dcac97024ac6087041c2.jpg

I'm back, don't know who that other person was:D..looking forward to a stellar 18z!!:cold-emoji:

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Amazing how things have changed,  on this morning's 00z it looked like a prolonged freeze and now it could all be over by this time next week..anyway, more runs needed i guess!:D..still, some disruptive wintry weather incoming and who knows what the 18z / 00z will show?..with a bit of luck..a prolonged freeze!!:cold-emoji:

That's why I never look beyond day 5. People will disagree but with every extra day you look beyond the margin for error increases. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

I remember 2010 where the models were keen on a quicker breakdown but the MET office were having none of it and they were proved right.

Now this low for the end of the working week could be the mother of all snowmakers as it moves into the cold air, but where - when and how far north is open to days of modeling yet.

 

 

 

Edited by chris55
  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, chris55 said:

I remember 2010 where the models were keen on a quicker breakdown but the MET office were having none of it and they were proved right.

Now this low for the end of the working week could be the mother or all snowmakers as it moves into the cold air, but where when and how far north is open to days of modeling yet.

 

 

 

i'm expecting subsequent runs to gradually keep it further south . . .

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Reading this thread is far more entertaining than anything on TV. Wrong/different data, the 12Z is so different from the 00z etc.

Come on some of you. You are on the edge of the most severe wintry spell since 2010 if not before then and you moan about its not this its not that.

Why not enjoy what the weather brings to the country rather than worrying about the 00z being different from the 12z at a week away. 

For those that get snow more than a cupful enjoy, drop your photos in here or your regional threads for the rest enjoy watching the actual weather even if it is not as good as you would like.

On to the models, well one version, my hobby horse the 500mb anomaly charts.

NOAA this evening with their 6-10 and 8-14 outlook. As good as I have seen in a long long time, on the 6-10 it is a so called 'magic' 528 dm line over the country from northern Canada. The 8-14 keeps a cold trend to the weather. Just how far north any milder air gets we have to wait and see, I suggest Wednesday before the different models start to converge on what will actually happen. Note the Fax charts as perhaps the best guide.

Anyway here with the NOAA charts

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

^^ this ^^ probably the best advice on here, seriously take a chill pill and enjoy what you have folks!!

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Response to a signal is what I'm thinking. We have to remember that the models are crunching the data and its been fairly consistant over the past week as we count down. New chapters will be coming into view but the plot could be misconstrude by sudden mild thrown into a nitrogen pot. We shall see.

Enjoy what ever falls your way and dont feel its the end of the world if this spell passes you by.

Perhaps the models are not grasping that when you apply the breaks, with the intention of putting the vehicle in reverse, theres a period of inertia followed by latency whilst the mechanics and physics involved in the manoeuvre do their thing. It looks too much too soon with transition to mild.

Edited by EllyTech
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Still not convinced the models have our cold spell ended right. We could quite easily be going into mid March 

Just as much chance of cold extension into Week 2 as ending , just don't believe the breakdown by some gfs  

But hey, I'm going to enjoy what we get.  

I'm off to the regionals now, good luck everyone. 

And please, nobody on here in daylight hours next week - enjoy the snow, here and now with friends, families......we have been waiting this for years.

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, yamkin said:

As some op models are suggesting a breakdown to the cold around Friday. I think the models are being too progressive with the low pressure pushing further north. Once the beast fully arrives tomorrow night, the cold will be hard to shift.

Yeah I'm not saying models will backtrack but I will trust the models far more once the cold pool is in place and already in the starting data of the models.

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites

ICON has blizzard like conditions for southern parts should the snow push north. Wind gusts 50-60mph no doubt higher over exposed locations.

18_117_ukwindvector_gust.png?cb=41

Now at the same timeframe the snow is only affecting southern coastal counties but I do not expect ICON at that range to have much of a handle on convective snow showers streaming in from the east.

 

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...