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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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So...it may only be a short-lived freeze or just a model wobble but clearly there is currently a less cold / milder trend from next weekend onwards from the s / sw.:)

Edited by Frosty.
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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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Just now, mulzy said:

Just shows our bad luck when it comes to the continuation of the cold spell.  I think the models have in my opinion rightly flipped to a less cold scenario.  I really hope I am wrong but that cold pool while our friend early in the week becomes our enemy at the end of the week 

Yes mulzy very frustrating. We do have 4/5 days of wintry weather but would been good for it to carry on . Just proves anything past T120 is JFF . Just find it frustrating because the eps were very good this morning and 12 hours later they flip . You never no they might flip back ?

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9 minutes ago, TEITS said:

ECM OP was much warmer than the mean but still an increase of 5C compared to 0Z.

graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=306&y=79&run=12

On a different note I do feel sorry for those in the far SE though i.e Kent. Whilst the snow showers will continue during Wed onwards for N England/Scotland, the convective days for the far SE only appear to be Mon/Tues due to the flow veering ESE,ly. The likes of Norfolk, Suffolk and maybe Essex may still pick up a few snow showers.

 

Amazing how you can pick out snowfall in showers due to flow however we are at +96 +++ for a slightly different kink to take things another direction. Not a forecast just a fact, 

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NMM showing a cold week ahead it ends with a hint of some less cold air coming into play for the far south during Thursday so it may be a case here of a snow to rain event later Thursday or into Friday. Further north the cold air would hang on until Saturday at least

tempresult_azq1.gif

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Just now, london-snow said:

 

Amazing how you can pick out snowfall in showers due to flow however we are at +96 +++ for a slightly different kink to take things another direction. Not a forecast just a fact, 

Just commenting on what the models are showing. A ESE,ly isn't a very good direction for the far SE due to the very short sea fetch. Even im hoping for a change in the flow from the model output towards a more E,ly with less of a S,ly element.

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It's going to be interesting to see how the models adjust for Friday according to the amount of snow on the ground. We have to remember there is a chance that we will have more snow cover and lower surface temps as a result than the models may currently be factoring. I think its best to see how Monday through to weds pans out first before calling things for Friday. 

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21 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The trend today has been to take that cold pool through the UK at a much faster rate, this allows it to break up somewhat so we end up with two separate cold pools.

ECM1-144.GIF?24-0   ECM1-168.GIF?12

Todays day 6 vs yesterdays day 7 from the ECM

That separation on the low heights means we lose the clean easterly at this point and pick up less cold air from the Meditaranean and allows the low to barrel around to our south west. Ultimately we need to keep that feed of lower thicknesses to keep the easterly going and keep the low moving ENE towards France instead of spinning up towards the UK or even further west.

Still even if we see a breakdown here, it would go out with a bang with strong to gale force ESE winds whichwill likely mean that the majority of the precipitation will be of snow before less cold air tucks in behind, add to that the front could very well stall somewhere across the country with areas noth of this staying cold and of course areas underneath the run could see snow for a prolonged period of time.

A lot to be resolved here still.

 

This is exactly what happened when ending a severe cold spell in late March late 1970s, though it did take a long time for precipitation to change from Snow to rain, was forecast to change on the Friday night but it wasn't till Sunday morning that it eventually changed to rain.

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes mulzy very frustrating. We do have 4/5 days of wintry weather but would been good for it to carry on . Just proves anything past T120 is JFF . Just find it frustrating because the eps were very good this morning and 12 hours later they flip . You never no they might flip back ?

Can I just point you to the meto text..

Dont they seem brilliant and hardly mentioned ‘Friday could see heavy and disruptive snow however uncertainty remains’ 

They (meto) have been great in calling this cold spell incoming so what’s not to doubt (its risk = high reward imo).

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1 minute ago, london-snow said:

Can I just point you to the meto text..

Dont they seem brilliant and hardly mentioned ‘Friday could see heavy and disruptive snow however uncertainty remains’ 

They (meto) have been great in calling this cold spell incoming so what’s not to doubt (its risk = high reward imo).

The issue I'm seeing, especially with the ECM, is that the flow is all wrong at the end of the week. Lp needs to get further E than is showing before the fronts edge north as warmer uppers will precede the fronts if not. That equates to rain for a lot of the country. 

In the medium range, the ECM is nothing short of quite diabolical in this respect. 

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Amazing how things have changed,  on this morning's 00z it looked like a prolonged freeze and now it could all be over by this time next week..anyway, more runs needed i guess!:D..still, some disruptive wintry weather incoming and who knows what the 18z / 00z will show?..with a bit of luck..a prolonged freeze!!:cold-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.
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11 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Just commenting on what the models are showing. A ESE,ly isn't a very good direction for the far SE due to the very short sea fetch. Even im hoping for a change in the flow from the model output towards a more E,ly with less of a S,ly element.

Understood and btw hope you’re on the mend, We shall see what comes to fruition next week tbh it’ll be great and I’ll be chuffed to see a few cms stick around and see my little one at the age of 5 use the sled that’s been non existent for 5 years. 

Edited by london-snow
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14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

NMM showing a cold week ahead it ends with a hint of some less cold air coming into play for the far south during Thursday so it may be a case here of a snow to rain event later Thursday or into Friday. Further north the cold air would hang on until Saturday at least

tempresult_azq1.gif

Cant quite believe how this anormous cold pool incoming gets eaten by the iberian low so quickly (nearly all the pinks & purples mixed out by Thursday. Really !!! 

All i keep hearing is how hard cold air is to shift , not on this evidence its not.

I really thought we were on the cusp of a 10-14 day bitter spell , which is now looking like 4 days at best.

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22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Hot off the press ECM Op at the top end of the mean around the 2nd to 4th less cold possibly but not to the extent of the Op

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.07f0aa2a091523d8b04d8c67352ab809.png

For balance, the mean is higher than the 00z

graphe_ens3_php1.thumb.png.76c5ccbc6c03f2f18c818065d99c6598.png

I think that's what we call a "flip"!!

Quite similar to the GEFS now.

Interestingly several other op runs have followed the ECM tonight (GEM, JMA).

Not a lot of change on the NOAA from last night though. Are there not convinced?

610hghts.20180223.fcst.gif  610day.03.gif

It's all about the development of that low. The more development, the more west it will be. 

 

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Accumulated snow chart from ECM at 9pm on Thursday (to be taken with a pinch of salt of course, much will probably change!). Even if it does melt after this and turn to rain, it'd undeniably be a noteworthy snow event for the SW, and it seems to stick around a lot longer further north. I honestly think it will correct south nearer the time, but this remains to be seen!

image.thumb.png.0a6a815abc0e22c37b7da3b0b42800fc.png

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1 minute ago, ScottishSnowStorm said:

I wonder what the spread is in the ens from cold v warm perspective maybe 25-13?

The clusters normally come out after 10pm which should help with that.

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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I think that's what we call a "flip"!!

Quite similar to the GEFS now.

Interestingly several other op runs have followed the ECM tonight (GEM, JMA).

Not a lot of change on the NOAA from last night though. Are there not convinced?

610hghts.20180223.fcst.gif  610day.03.gif

It's all about the development of that low. The more development, the more west it will be. 

 

Cpc on Saturday is raw naefs. The geps were pretty similar to the eps this morning so no surprise to see those charts still looking like the lw trough will struggle to get far enough north, even in the 8/14 period. 

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15 minutes ago, ScottishSnowStorm said:

I wonder what the spread is in the ens from cold v warm perspective maybe 25-13?

By Friday, 75% of ECM ensembles members are still brutally cold all over the UK with lots of places in ice days all the way down to the south.

By Saturday, 50/50 split between cold / not cold for the Midlands south (if taking 3C or less generally as "cold", anything more as "not cold").

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Maybe we are having another Wednesday wobble but on a Saturday this time after the second SSW. Just putting that out there. But lots to look forward to beforehand in the short term ?

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14 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The trend today has been to take that cold pool through the UK at a much faster rate, this allows it to break up somewhat so we end up with two separate cold pools.

ECM1-144.GIF?24-0   ECM1-168.GIF?12

Todays day 6 vs yesterdays day 7 from the ECM

That separation on the low heights means we lose the clean easterly at this point and pick up less cold air from the Meditaranean and allows the low to barrel around to our south west. Ultimately we need to keep that feed of lower thicknesses to keep the easterly going and keep the low moving ENE towards France instead of spinning up towards the UK or even further west.

Still even if we see a breakdown here, it would go out with a bang with strong to gale force ESE winds whichwill likely mean that the majority of the precipitation will be of snow before less cold air tucks in behind, add to that the front could very well stall somewhere across the country with areas noth of this staying cold and of course areas underneath the run could see snow for a prolonged period of time.

A lot to be resolved here still.

I wonder if all the models are wrong after 96hr range, we have seen the Greenland high going further west run on run and there are weak residual heights to the north.  the remains of vortex dropping south into scandie/Russia have also been modelled further east over time.

The Ecm has now showed the low coming up from the south west to be modelled to west of us. is it possible the Greenland high may actually go even further west into Canada and we end up with stronger heights building to the north with a split flow with some energy going north east between the canadain high and our new developing block and most energy going under with heights rebuilding north east. that would also provide a route for the remains of the vortex to get back to Greenland

I have never been convinced we would end up with west base -NAO. maybe models really struggling to catch on to new pattern change with effects from 2nd warming.

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