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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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2 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

There's a mass of very cold air just waiting to keep the easterly flow going if we can get over the hurdle of those low pressure systems trending too far north. Swing them south over France and we could be extending things for quite a while.

gfs-0-192_hxb5.png  gfs-1-192_gra3.png

We need it further East as much as South. It's those Southerlies on the East flank doing the damage.

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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3 minutes ago, Britneyfan said:

Why are people so focused on next Friday, when we have Monday to weds to deal with first? 

1 its the model thread 

2 Friday events are of Importance. Low pressure travels to far north and milder uppers for the Southern half of the country.

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

Im expecting this to go to T24 ish -

Yeah, probably safer the more NW you are. Down in the SE it will go down to the wire. Historically these things go 50-50 from doing some research on similar set-ups.

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Whilst there is still the chance of some massive snow totals for the end of next week it does look like the GFS has trended in the right direction this afternoon (for a continuation of the cold) and I am therefore expecting further Southerly corrections as we close in on next Friday as per the Meto extended outlook and MOGREPS based on the post earlier from Essex Weather.

I have a feeling tonight's ECM will maintain the more Southerly track of the low and maintain the Easterly flow albeit with a tightening of the isobars as the low passes to our South (as a channel low).

Before that loads of fun and games snow wise with the windchill also being a major feature this week.  :cold:

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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2 minutes ago, davehsug said:

We need it further East as much as South. It's those Southerlies on the East flank doing the damage.

Yes, the UKMO is slightly further East although also further North and likely to do the same as GFS later on.

GFS just trundling around and mixing out the colder uppers before it gives way to another system doing the same makes it pretty much the worst option so, hopefully, it won't verify.

ECM is possibly the saviour here as it keeps that second system away from us so that it allows that colder air north and east to get its foot back in the door again.

The first low seems to be quite definitely targetting us but keep it well south and slow that second system down and we have a chance of extending the cold spell.

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ECM and GFS are worlds apart at day 10. Instinct and verification stats tell me ECM is more on the money. A middle ground is GEM which is still good for M4 north. Metoffice long range not talking about rain in the south next weekend so perhaps MOGREPS is also more like ECM

 

08BC379F-3760-493D-8672-341C59DA5D6A.gif

98CC4DC3-F5E0-4877-A1B4-85454DDDDC34.png

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10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The scope for a historic snowfall event is there but its a high risk game and with the GEM there would be no going back. So those who don't fare well from the easterly this week will be disappointed. However there is huge uncertainty about this period at the moment. Very impressive synoptics though, so enjoy!

That GEM run has cold uppers over the Northern half of the UK right out to day 10 so I wouldn't say no going back (if you are talking about the cold pattern generally)?

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As for the next four days, not much to discuss, winter is coming and it will be cold, and snowy for some (not all). The low on Thursday looks like it could bring a memorable snowfest, especially to those north of the M4, but too early to be confident either way.

Further on, the difference between the GFS and ECM around D7 onwards is what causes the breakdown on the GFS. The ECM manages to keep the lows within the upper Atlantic trough flow, they, therefore avoid pumping up WAA north, and instead push it east. The GFS pushes the lows as the main feature and they drag up the warm air towards the UK and inevitably (ATM) warm up our sector. Can ECM produce two runs in a row where these lows fill and remain within the trough? Does it seem a less likely scenario? We will find out soon...

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6 minutes ago, Buzz said:

It'll take days, might even be a now-casting event. We certainly won't be that much wiser in 24 hours.

Probably. But if the LP is sitting over the Midlands on tomorrow’s runs then that will require a bigger correction southwards  if we want it to be all snow. It may also be miles south by tomorrow’s runs. Was so hoping for a drama free week so as to focus on the here and now stuff. Oh well!

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1 minute ago, Djdazzle said:

Probably. But if the LP is sitting over the Midlands on tomorrow’s runs then that will require a bigger correction southwards  if we want it to be all snow. It may also be miles south by tomorrow’s runs. Was so hoping for a drama free week so as to focus on the here and now stuff. Oh well!

one of the perbs has the low heading up the north sea. Blizzards and heavy snow for the south east/ east in that set-up :)

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Well the 12z GFS shows that just about anything is possible with this low. Some runs are introducing the milder air like the 12z GFS op. Does look like more are JUST on the right side of marginal this time round for the south but my word could that go either way

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Just looked at gfs still not a done deal for friday  lots changs to come to me low is trending south 6 z was further north there definitely a move south on 12 z southern Britain looks to be in for a major blizzard if this   Continues  ..

91620ABF-3CE8-4C8F-864B-E2AF92884CE0.png

Edited by abbie123
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2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Just looked at gfs still not a done deal for friday  lots changs to come to me low is trending south 6 z was further north there definitely a move south on 12 z southern Britain looks to be in for a major blizzard if this   Continues  ..

91620ABF-3CE8-4C8F-864B-E2AF92884CE0.png

With you on this one, Abbie.

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So again the 12z output so far toys with moving the low pressure slightly further north than ideal for some, with the possibility of a snow to rain event south of the M4.. be interesting to see if the ECM holds to its guns of seeing the low less progressive. 

 

I think one thing the models are in agreement of is that somewhere is going to get buried come Friday!!

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Not sure what’s going on with the Arpege.

Thats miles different from the others but has support from that goliath of models  the NAVGEM! :D

Both aren’t interested in the ne tracking low, I’m even more surprised by the former as the UKMO do take account of the French model.

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As for the next four days, not much to discuss, winter is coming and it will be cold, and snowy for some 

 

Just a once in thirty year pattern about to gridlock the country.......Lets get to the breakdown asap

Ridiculous

Edited by doghouse
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