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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

Posted Images

My sense, based on my 15 years of model watching but minimal formal expertise, is that the next model to blink will be the ECM. Hopefully won't end up going all the way to the GFS, but in a situation like this I suspect the GFS is trending with good reason. 

So for Friday/Saturday, I'd currently expect an incursion of milder air into some portion of the S/SE. Beyond that, it's probably up for grabs with such an intense cold pool nearby. Some decently cold air could get pulled back or the S/SE might stay a tad warmer.

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14 minutes ago, Banbury said:

But you have said it’s safe to say with confidence the low will head North .....now it might not be correct ....so your not confident???? 

 

Im confused 

Based on the 6z GFSE you would have to be confident of the low moving more north than is probably ideal for the extreme south / south east, due to the agreement shown of increased uppers being dragged in over London?

I thought the idea of this thread was to discuss what certain model outputs show? 

Clearly other models aren’t quite reflecting the same thing, so there has to be an element of doubt when these are factored in.

Edited by jayb1989
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2 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

People predicting the melting of snow that hasn't fallen and the breakdown of a cold spell that hasn't started. 

Only on Netweather!:hi:

Strange thing to say I think. Who are you to say what should be interesting to people? The short term model output is pretty much all in agreement and settled. So for those who enjoy trying to interpret more ambiguous model output, the next point of contention is what happens on Thurs/Fri.

Perfectly possible to enjoy the prospect/reality of the cold spell coming up while also considering subsequent outcomes...24 hours in the day...

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I have to say, the very progressive Gfs 6z op looks very unlikely, the GEFS / ECM mean keep the cold entrenched with the risk of further snow..I expect the very cold block, once established will be very reluctant to give any ground!!..great times ahead!:)

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I have to say, the very progressive Gfs 6z op looks very unlikely, the GEFS / ECM mean keep the cold entrenched with the risk of further snow..I expect the very cold block, once established will be very reluctant to give any ground!!..great times ahead!:)

That was very true in the good old days of the 70s and 80s.  But we are in different times now   Can the beast walk the walk in 2018, when challenged

Edited by Fender..
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I’m not sure why some are giving GFS the time of day it’s notorious for overegging it. The more sensible UKMO at T+168 is with ECM both are much better models to access likely outcome.

the gfs ensembles what good are they lower res will be even more liable to being off and going from one extreme to another.

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4 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

That was very true in the good old days of the 70s and 80s.  But we are in different times now   Can the beast walk the walk in 2018, when challenged

Well it's certainly talking the talk on the latest model output and I expect that to continue and I believe it will walk the walk and deliver something truly wonderful to remember for long suffering netweather coldies!:cold-emoji::)

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16 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

 

Based on the 6z GFSE you would have to be confident of the low moving more north than is probably ideal for the extreme south / south east, due to the agreement shown of increased uppers being dragged in over London?

I thought the idea of this thread was to discuss what certain model outputs show? 

Clearly other models aren’t quite reflecting the same thing, so there has to be an element of doubt when these are factored in.

It is but you have covered every base 

you are confident the low will move north but it might not be correct 

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7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m not sure why some are giving GFS the time of day it’s notorious for overegging it. The more sensible UKMO at T+168 is with ECM both are much better models to access likely outcome.

the gfs ensembles what good are they lower res will be even more liable to being off and going from one extreme to another.

Yes, the Op is higher res; my point above was that when comparing all of the ensemble members with the control (also in low res) the theme across the board was a shift S and E. This therefore highlights the potential that, with a tweaking of the input, it suggests a trend consistantly towards a more southerly and easterly track. Thats pretty much all they are useful for..

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9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m not sure why some are giving GFS the time of day it’s notorious for overegging it. The more sensible UKMO at T+168 is with ECM both are much better models to access likely outcome.

the gfs ensembles what good are they lower res will be even more liable to being off and going from one extreme to another.

I know, strange that there are 132 pages on the thread of people giving the GFS the time of day when it shows what they want. But we are crazy to give it the time of day when it doesn’t.

It might well be way off on this occasion and i understand it tends to overblow approaching lows against embedded cold air, but it still a notable trend. I’m interested to see the 12z suite.

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23 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

People predicting the melting of snow that hasn't fallen and the breakdown of a cold spell that hasn't started. 

Only on Netweather!:hi:

Not only that but focusing on next Friday/weekend as possible breakdown/snowmageddon is in FI compared to what we have in store in the coming 4 days even. It'd be lovely if we could all just stand back and see how the models actually handle the realities, step by step -?

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22 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

My sense, based on my 15 years of model watching but minimal formal expertise, is that the next model to blink will be the ECM. Hopefully won't end up going all the way to the GFS, but in a situation like this I suspect the GFS is trending with good reason. 

So for Friday/Saturday, I'd currently expect an incursion of milder air into some portion of the S/SE. Beyond that, it's probably up for grabs with such an intense cold pool nearby. Some decently cold air could get pulled back or the S/SE might stay a tad warmer.

Agree, when the GFS isn't showing what people want it's suddenly 'useless' and 'over progressive.' I can remember countless times the GFS has called it correctly, and the ECM has followed later, or at least trended towards the GFS solution. I don't think we should discount any model at this stage. In the UK, the Atlantic will always have a higher chance of winning the battle, not saying it will however.

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I don't agree that the GFS is overplaying the low, but still it's too early to assume that that's how it will play out.

Having said that, it wouldn't surprise me at all if some parts of the country saw merely a dusting of snow from what promised so much only 48 hours ago

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5 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Not only that but focusing on next Friday/weekend as possible breakdown/snowmageddon is in FI compared to what we have in store in the coming 4 days even. It'd be lovely if we could all just stand back and see how the models actually handle the realities, step by step -?

Again, with all respect, what an utterly bizarre post... Why exactly shouldn't people focus on a possible breakdown, that being the interesting part of the discussion where there is model disagreement...?

And what do you actually mean by "stand back and see how the models actually handle the realities"? These are forecast models, right? What is interesting about how they handle the "realities"?

Are you aware of the purpose of this thread? 

In any case, as previously stated, I'd guess the GFS is onto something and today's output will see greater consensus achieved about the Thurs-sat evolution.

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Interestingly didn't the 2010 Nov/Dec event get completely wrong post 4 days?  

IIRC, it was all muddled till the events unfolded and lasted a month. 

I've seen hints of a Greenland high. Which in my eyes is much better than a Scandi high.  Look at the angle of the jet if you completely block it to our NW vs NE.  On a Scandi high we are far too west to stop a breakdown. But a longer spell with retrogression to Greenland. 

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1 minute ago, wellington boot said:

Again, with all respect, what an utterly bizarre post... Why exactly shouldn't people focus on a possible breakdown, that being the interesting part of the discussion where there is model disagreement...?

And what do you actually mean by "stand back and see how the models actually handle the realities"? These are forecast models, right? What is interesting about how they handle the "realities"?

Are you aware of the purpose of this thread? 

In any case, as previously stated, I'd guess the GFS is onto something and today's output will see greater consensus achieved about the Thurs-sat evolution.

I think my well-meant and purposeful comment - whether akin or not to any entrenched notion of the model thread's purpose - is also valid. I think study of how accurate the models have been is just as important as forecasting from them as they stand.

No further wish for antagonistic retort from anyone - or to create one. I just come from the heart and want less jumping of the gun, that's all. 

---------------0---------------------

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56 minutes ago, Paul T said:

With regard to the GFS evolution of "that" low next friday - the stamps confirm that every single run has the low placed further south and east than the control map, barring P14...therefore the progressive nature and dilution of the 850's and placement out to the west of the low is perhaps overplayed a little on the contol. In my opinion, placement in the channel and then an intense weakening is a fairly likely outcome, backed by many ensemble members.

850t-156.png

Yeah, though it is worth noting that there are at least a decent minority that still introduce air mild enough to shift back to rain in the far south.

As I've said before the global models for being 144hrs are actually really close, even the ensembles aren't that different. BUT 100 miles north/east/west/south is going to make a massive difference to us.

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17 minutes ago, Thinon said:

I don't agree that the GFS is overplaying the low, but still it's too early to assume that that's how it will play out.

Having said that, it wouldn't surprise me at all if some parts of the country saw merely a dusting of snow from what promised so much only 48 hours ago

That's wrong.

You must remember about that 72 hours of heavy snow showers before any low pressure that might travel north 

 

Edited by cold snap
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Here's a sample of the GEFS 6z which supports prolonging the upcoming severe wintry spell through next weekend and beyond which also goes along with the latest view from Exeter!:):cold-emoji:

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