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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    Wow this would dump serious snow to southern Ireland!!!

    A hurricane last October and now a Noreaster!! Good morning America ?

    If this is global warming I say bring it on!!!!

    Edited by January Snowstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
    2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    What a messy looking GFS for the UK. Its a big downgrade both in termsof temps and also the amount of snow that falls as the strongest pluse is too far west. Ireland does well however.

    For the south this wouldbe quite the poor way to end any cold spell, brief snow followed by alot of rain (esp in SW) followed by some snow as it winds down again. Meanwhile atlantic is about to take over around 168hrs...

    Further north stays as snow BUT synoptics are poor for long term cold on this run.

    Anyway I STILL will stand firm and think the LP is beingmodelled too far north, countless times this happens only for the LPto get adjusted south because its overdone the low...BUT the trend isn't good right now.

    The GFS trend. Or the ‘sod’s law’ trend, as would be more apt!

    METO remain bullish for them. Interesting afternoon update later to see if they’re seeing what we can’t. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    Just now, Steel City Skies said:

    No it doesn't! The south experience some milder uppers before it gradually gets squeezed out in favour of the cold. The northern half meanwhile keep cold all the way.


    It doesnt get squeezed out and surface temps can only stop milder uppers having an effect for a limited time. Saturday surface temps  =cold spell over for the South

     

    GFSOPME06_177_5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    Just now, Steel City Skies said:

    No it doesn't! The south experience some milder uppers before it gradually gets squeezed out in favour of the cold. The northern half meanwhile keep cold all the way.

    Its very much a where you are type run, for the north you'd be happy, inthe south it IS a disgusting run, rain washes all snow away and then maybe some token snow on the back end. Personally this run can go into the fire.

    Also synoptically it isn't anywhere near as good as the ECM for keeping in the cold.

    Going to be interesting to see what the ensembles do, but that is jsut about the WORST case run for the south for sure...for the north, doesn't really matter as you'llkeep the cold regardless.

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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol
    10 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    So much for the LP to correct south! The trend is clearly the opposite.

    Variations from a couple of GFS ops and it may be onto something, however we need to start seeing cross model agreement before the path and strength of this system can be resolved. ☺

    Edited by Chris K
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    Posted
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow
  • Location: Chichester West Sussex

    Most of the other models disagree with what the GFS is doing with the low system, apart from the UKMO to some degree, from past experience I'd say the GFS is wrong and will correct the low running through France. Seems to always be the model which is a massive Atlantic fan and loves to bring it back in early only for it to then push it back day by day by day. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
    6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    What a messy looking GFS for the UK. Its a big downgrade both in termsof temps and also the amount of snow that falls as the strongest pluse is too far west. Ireland does well however.

    For the south this wouldbe quite the poor way to end any cold spell, brief snow followed by alot of rain (esp in SW) followed by some snow as it winds down again. Meanwhile atlantic is about to take over around 168hrs...

    Further north stays as snow BUT synoptics are poor for long term cold on this run.

    Anyway I STILL will stand firm and think the LP is beingmodelled too far north, countless times this happens only for the LPto get adjusted south because its overdone the low...BUT the trend isn't good right now.

    As has often been said, sometimes GFS is too quick to break down the cold block to the east. 

    Iwould not be surprised if as the runs go on it gets pushed back

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    Why? It’s perfectly plausible.

    Considering most of the other models show the track/shape different and the GFS historically overdoes these systems and smashes cold air out of the way far too easily, you'll see... watch the GFS backtrack soon.

    We shall see of course but I see this low pressure going through northern France, surely the south can't get THAT unlucky ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

    Not posted on here for a while, but my experience is that even if it seems as if a low pressure system is trending in a particular direction on the models, its projected track will change constantly until much nearer the time. Because tiny differences have such huge implications for us, the actual snow line will not be evident until we're within the 24 hour window. GFS 6z is not ideal for many of us in terms of snow at the end of the week, but it's at odds with the ECM and others, so no one should be concerned this far out.

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    Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

    The cold hasn’t even arrived and people are talking about a breakdown already!

    BEBC35F5-950B-417C-BB78-01CC91B7E524.thumb.gif.e897addc495c2214a7ac44ea43ae29f7.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    5 minutes ago, Chris K said:

    Variations from a couple of GFS ops and it may be onto something, however we need to start seeing cross model agreement before the path and strength of this system can be resolved. ☺

    True, but the ECM and UKMO has also trended further north, but to a lesser extent. Not saying GFS is right by any means though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    It is worth saying that as Djdazzie said it is a realistic run, nothing synoptically that couldn't happen but we would be mega unlucky in the south if that was what were to come out.

    Anyway the 06z GFS was the first run where there is rain introduced to the south in any meaningful way, fair chance it will be at least right at the top end of the ensembles.

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    Posted
  • Location: surrey
  • Location: surrey
    Just now, steveinsussex said:

    It’s way too keen to bring that milder air in quickly 

    Now where have I heard that saying before?

    GFS notorious for going default mode and pushing in milder air to end previous cold spells only to get put further and further back. Some would argue that it is not in default mode as it has cross model support for a lp to push in from the sw. 

    However this is a very strong block to our north east and I cannot see it just being blown away that easy. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

    The low from the south will vary from run to run . It does seem highly likely there will be a low coming up from that direction but it shape and orientation and northern extent will alter and this will dramatically impact on the potential surface conditions . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
  • Location: Derry, NW Ireland, 20 to 30m ASL
    15 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Got to laugh at the GFS, completely displaces all the cold air and brings the low up at a pretty terrible angle. Useless model.

    Yes terrible model  doesn't show what we want yes terrible model nothing going for it, as useful as a chocolate fire-guard, lets ignore it and the ensembles from now on absolutely useless.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Both ECM and GFS options are firmly on the table IMHO. This GFS run feels a bit OTT IMHO but something like the 00Z that brings a bit of wet stuff into the far SE is def an option here (sadly for me!).

    Whatever happens though an interesting week coming up!

     

    Edit - high risk high reward is def the way to go now given the lateness of the season. If it had been a few weeks earlier I'd have not wanted that low within 500 miles of us!!

    Edited by Jason M
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The GFS actually does disrupt that low as it hits the UK, it is just that it manages to pull milder air across the south whilst the ECM keeps the UK cold, it would not take much for the GFS to keep the whole of the UK under the -8C isotherm. The GFS seems too keen to split and fragment that cold pool which allows that milder air to push further north. There is a risk of this happening but once the Asian vortex realigns towards Scandinavia we should see that Euro low redevelop and the low to our south should start to drift east rather than north.

    The fact the GFS disrupts the low is a start to be honest.

    tempresult_hdf4.gif

    Also an eastwards correction on those low heights dropping south would be good too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    I do think that the GFS 6z is the more unlikely solution. But we also need to remember that there have been examples in the past where strong blocks of cold air have been easily shunted aside. Didn't that happen in Feb 1991?

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    6 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

    Yes terrible model  doesn't show what we want yes terrible model nothing going for it, as useful as a chocolate fire-guard, lets ignore it and the ensembles from now on absolutely useless.

    In these scenarios yes im afraid it is useless, I can bet you a large wedge it's being way over progressive with the shape and vigour at which it arrives.

     

    Looking at the ECM mean it's in a totally different ballpark 'cold shunting wise' and I would back an ECM suite over the GFS all day.

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
    20 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Got to laugh at the GFS, completely displaces all the cold air and brings the low up at a pretty terrible angle. Useless model.

    Depends for who.......

    h500slp.thumb.png.4640c4e046d1bd73c25de1592f16213a.png

    :shok:

    33333333333333333333.thumb.png.b338dcf13265deffa678bb02e0f52176.png

     :help: Gloucestershire.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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