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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

    Will it won't it? Interesting few days trying to figure out whether the winter Azores low slides harmlessly to our south and keeps us in cold north easterlies with a reinvigorated Greenie high or whether it makes a disruptive journey north to mix in a nail-biting amount of mild air. Control shows what does happen if the end-of-week low (or procession of lows if you're the GEM) all depart without too much fuss but either way, one of the top ten (possibly top five) coldest weather events in a generation about to land, unstoppably, unbelievably, on our doorstep. Enjoy!

    graphe3_1000_290_38___.thumb.gif.0c4c3ce7489e01330a71fb93d394fbf3.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
    13 minutes ago, Zak94 said:

    Yes I believe so

    Yes you are right it tends to be overly progressive with Atlantic systems 

    Edited by snowfish1
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey 78m asl

    The 0z GFS at 144 pushes the low much further north and parts of the south east are in positive uppers - compare this to the mean that keeps everyone in -5 uppers - the track of this will vary greatly over the next few days. Panic not!

    op

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    Mean

    9F57813C-6705-49B1-976E-B4A392165EE2.png

     

    Edit, the 144 and 168 ECM show a prolonged continuation of the cold as the uppers come flooding down the country again!

    041E13E7-1B1D-4A6D-9C81-021C27E22F8C.jpeg

    Edited by Great Plum
    The ecm cheered me up!
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    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    This is what we want from ECM. The low approaches but doesn’t mix out the cold and a really cold flow again at +168.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

     what a beautiful chart from the ECM. I believe the cold will already be too deep and entrenched over Europe for the Atlantic to spoil the fun as quickly as some models suggest.                        ECM1-144.GIF?24-12

    Edited by Zak94
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    Posted
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
  • Location: Gilesgate Moor, Durham City
    1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

    ECM0-168.GIF?24-12

    Boom. ....at 168hrs the cold has won the battle and we remain in bitter cold....more than likely under a foot of snow in south

    And the NE and much of the East given convection in addition to what is modelled on the accumulation charts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
    1 minute ago, Zak94 said:

     what a beautiful chart from the ECM. I believe the cold will already be too deep and entrenched over Europe for the Atlantic to spoil the fun as quickly as some models suggest. ECM1-144.GIF?24-12

    This is exactly it and look at the bigger picture, We've had two exceptional SSWs (even resulting in the Japanese climate centre adjusting their graph axis) I think once the colds in, It will be here for a good while 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    So some extraordinary late winter weather coming up with bitter cold and then all eyes turn to the Atlantic low.

    I'm not sure I see mild Southerlies in the forecast (Steve?) but certainly a chance of a breakdown of the cold as the colder air gets mixed out

    It would be a bit an anticlimactic ending if any snow rapidly turned to rain from the South but that seems the least likely option to me at the moment even though the output has moved toward the low making inroads from the South as per GFS.

    If there is to be a breakdown first week in March it will much more likely be a slower process with the Atlantic needing more than one attempt to force cold air away leading to a lot of snow and this cold spell going out with a real bang. I think a lot of two members would be content with that as we head toward Spring.

    Then of course there may be no break down at all with low pressure tracking further South keeping us cold but drier though the far South may see some frontal snow, if that happens this cold spell could have real legs because as mentioned previously there is a signal for blocking to try and reestablish itself in the second week of March which could well keep us in cold air through to mid month and even beyond and I would think after 3 weeks of cold we would all be ready for spring (But I know better :crazy:)

    What weighting to give these outcomes? 

    Impossible to know if we are honest but going off the data we have and historical events I would say complete and fast breakdown from around 3rd/4th March no more than 20% at the moment. A slow snowy breakdown lasting pretty much through 1st week of March (and temps likely wont hit average even then) probably the form horse 50% and 30% we stay on the cold side of Atlantic incursions into 2nd week of March. Others will have different ideas I'm sure.

    As it would happen we pretty much have all scenarios played out in this mornings models so take your pick.

    ECM for me.

    ECH1-144.GIF?24-12ECH1-168.GIF?24-12ECH1-192.GIF?24-12

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    EC looking amazing this morning, snowstorm potential later in the week and Wednesdays flow is looking quite unstable with plenty of kinks and and embedded troughs you would think,

    IMG_3366.thumb.PNG.a9ab5bc8f4a0045c73e02bac0114a79a.PNGIMG_3367.thumb.PNG.9469ed19eee70f8b33b375677809d0ed.PNG

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind and summer storms
  • Location: Cwmbach, Aberdare, Mid Glamorgan
    6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Well the ECM is superb

    Blizzard for many - Cornwall wiped off the map - then back into the upper air cold pool & heavy snow showers @168 !

    41C93D59-7EA7-4AE9-A3FD-8490BA734819.thumb.png.6fe8964441a8c7a0bee9947ca0a8ab35.png

    Hi steve, great looking charts for a big snow event in the south later next week. However I'm a little confused with your comments on the UKMO 144 chart. You said that all of England and Wales have the uppers mixed out but the chart still shows is under depp cold as well as surface cold being pulled off the continent. I'm confused. Cheers 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dover. Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, sun, thunder, storms, frosts, summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Dover. Kent

    A very pleasing run from the ECM.  It has to be hoped the deep cold can win this battle at 144-168.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    2 minutes ago, JamesL said:

    Hi steve, great looking charts for a big snow event in the south later next week. However I'm a little confused with your comments on the UKMO 144 chart. You said that all of England and Wales have the uppers mixed out but the chart still shows is under depp cold as well as surface cold being pulled off the continent. I'm confused. Cheers 

    Hi mate ^^ see my post above-

    The UKMO track was appearing to go North @144 however if its just doing an orbit like ECM where it comes up & kisses the SW then is pushed back SW again thats fine as long as theres eastward energy over France holding the continental flow ahead-

    UKMO 144 is slightly warmer @144 than ECM but margins are fine for all-

    S

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    Guest Durham Weather
    On 21/02/2018 at 08:26, MR EXTREMES said:

    Well I'm not going to get into the emotional side of models as I feel there excellent across the board.

    Outlook wintry ice days possible and exact position of the blocking high is not certain so a little south or little north is always a possibility.

    But in general the northwest would experience less from this cold spell.

    As for deep cold and upper air temps even minus 8 would do the trick but likely to be at least -10 perhaps -12 which is the best for years.

    Longevity looks pretty good although the gem sucks the heights right past Greenland into eastern seaboard of the united states, but maintains a cold theme here in the UK as lows drop under the migrating heights GFS does the same but nowhere near as erratic.

    But this pattern screaming reload.

    Cold start to spring and at last all the Jigsaw puzzle came together with a very impressive stratospheric warming.

    At least a 2 week cold spell.

    Patients was always key this winter.

    And we'll done on the seasonal forecasting from net weather pretty much nailed it.

    Very exciting week or two coming up and over analysis just not worth it.

    Dark Sky wants to dump 46cm of snow on the North East by next Saturday! ??

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    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

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