Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, ICE COLD said:

    Good to see the GFS is right at the mild end of the suit and an outlier ?

    That’s been a consistent theme lately IC ? fl should be taken with quite a pinch of salt imo on gfs. At least until we see some form of convergence with other ops.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Now let us never speak of this again ? still scarred by that ☹️

    ECM ens looking very good indeed still. 

    E4FFE587-9E84-4FF1-A900-9331F8F80122.thumb.gif.58df768db82870262631a45fe262b488.gif

    Something tells me the gfs is struggling in the medium - long term...

     

    A -17C member in there for the 5th of March.

    Ok.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    24 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    I wonder if there’s a way of reward with less risk.

    It’s possible the low moves a bit further east into Iberia before turning ne so what we see is something like the nor easter in the eastern USA.

    The low runs ne with the UK remaining on the cold side. The snow moves ne into the UK but doesn’t change over to rain and  the low becomes absorbed into the troughing over Scandi.

    That would be great to see , it’s an unusual scenario but it would be apt given the unusual and stunning depth of cold for this late into the winter .

    It's a tense moment with high risk and as usual, more runs needed to see how this will play out. Snowmageddon for all or a soggy mess by next weekend? Hopefully not the latter (per GFS) as it would be a sad and swift end to a potentially epic cold spell. 18z GEFs aren't making the picture any clearer - maybe a slight shift more in support of the Op run. The majority still keeping us on the cold side.

    image.thumb.png.fc32fa8ee8cce42d1a0171c36bdb0e51.png

     

    Edited by Purga
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol

    Thursday/Friday

    It's like a final episode of a 6-part TV thriller. The director filmed 3 different endings and even the lead actors/actresses dont know which one will actually be the final episode until the evening it airs.

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Louth, Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Cold weather.
  • Location: Louth, Ireland

    With any snow next week, predicting it will be more of a nowcast situation.. But wonderful chart reading, worth putting in the memory stick.

     

     

    jn.jpg

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    :D No I prefer whisky ! 

    Who knows what will happen with that low but before then a lot to look forward to.

    I’m so excited to see these synoptics for the UK.  I’m more interested in what happens re snow there than here.

    I’m very lucky here, it’s so amazing to see the snow capped mountains everyday in winter so I’m sending all my luck to my fellow coldies who have had to put up with so many disappointments in the UK. :cold-emoji:

     

    You have 'somewhat' undercut-yourself there nick!...

     I would gladly have (brought-exported) you a bott!!!

    Top stuff ASAWS..

    .

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    13 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    If that control run comes off , the whole country will be tanked in snow . Is there many ens on the ecm looking like that MWB ? ?

    About 25% of members have substantial snow across almost all areas of the UK by the end of next weekend.

    Another 25% or so have a substantial snow event primarily in the south (SW favoured most).

    And other runs either bring in milder air from the S so turning to rain eventually, and a fair group of runs see it miss completely and we stay in the easterly!

    I fear we have days ahead of us of "will it won't it"

    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    :D No I prefer whisky ! 

    Who knows what will happen with that low but before then a lot to look forward to.

    I’m so excited to see these synoptics for the UK.  I’m more interested in what happens re snow there than here.

    I’m very lucky here, it’s so amazing to see the snow capped mountains everyday in winter so I’m sending all my luck to my fellow coldies who have had to put up with so many disappointments in the UK. :cold-emoji:

     

    That is such a selfless statement and lovely to hear. Hope as many enjoy the fruits of this epic cold spell as possible. 

    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
    27 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

    When this cold spell finally ends, will that be a Brrr-exit? 

    Here's my take on the evolution:

    Gradual increase in North Sea streamer production through Monday with an episode of heavy snow moving into northeast England late Monday and spreading to central counties by Tuesday, widespread near-blizzard conditions in Midlands, Yorkshire and northeast to Wednesday, more isolated streamers in southeast but some locally heavy.

    Then this intriguing look of a looping moisture-laden low scraping into the edges of the cold and possibly making slight inroads into the south briefly with mixed precip but heavy snow likely to develop across large parts of southern England and Wales towards Friday 2nd. This could turn into a blizzard-like storm for Midlands and Wales as North Sea streamers are integrated into precip shield. 

    Looks like a possible reload early next week.

    These are certainly stunning charts that, if they verify, will produce weather to rival anything recorded in the past, at least the inter-glacial past. There may have been better charts around 18,000 B.C. but somebody erased the archives. 

    Nothing for Scotland and Ireland then? I enjoy reading your posts and I'm sure many fellow folk north of the border do and the same across the Irish sea so perhaps you can include Scotland and Ireland in your thoughts? :)

    Edited by Sawel
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Did not include Scotland or Ireland in my forecast, haven't had time to look at Scotland in any great detail looks to be mostly eastern half snow potential there, heavy snow potential in Northern Ireland especially eastern half. ROI my thoughts are posted elsewhere, widespread heavy snow potential especially central Leinster. 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Mallusk, Glengormley - 510ft
  • Location: Mallusk, Glengormley - 510ft
    3 minutes ago, Sawel said:

    Nothing for Scotland and Ireland then? I enjoy reading your posts and I'm sure many fellow folk north of the border do and the same across the Irish sea so perhaps you can include the UK and Ireland in your thoughts? :)

    When UK wide is mentioned in here, I often wonder if Northern Ireland is included in those statements ... purely because I want to understand the excellent analysis of charts provided here and the impacts across all areas ..... I am learning a lot though  keep up the great work people ?

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Mallusk, Glengormley - 510ft
  • Location: Mallusk, Glengormley - 510ft
    2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Did not include Scotland or Ireland in my forecast, haven't had time to look at Scotland in any great detail looks to be mostly eastern half snow potential there, heavy snow potential in Northern Ireland especially eastern half. ROI my thoughts are posted elsewhere, widespread heavy snow potential especially central Leinster. 

    Thanks for the quick run through 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
    2 minutes ago, snowydog said:

    When UK wide is mentioned in here, I often wonder if Northern Ireland is included in those statements ... purely because I want to understand the excellent analysis of charts provided here and the impacts across all areas ..... I am learning a lot though  keep up the great work people ?

     

    There's a strong English bias because most posters are English. It is what it is and it's refreshing when posters discuss the UK as a whole and some do but plenty don't.

    Edited by Sawel
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    1 hour ago, Singularity said:

    Thanks for your thoughts Nick.

    My instinct tells me that surely it would take a well defined steering flow to push a low right into deep cold air, meaning this collapse of NE steering should serve to keep the low from making it right across the UK. Does that make sense or are the beers messing with my scientific sense?

    Can’t help but entertain the prospect of a band of snow stalking across S England and then clearing to very slack, clear conditions with temps absolutely plummeting. Both from the point of view of being a fascinating event, and that of it being tragic for some wildlife, homeless people etc. So mixed emotions, but  that’s always going to be the case with the most severe manifestations of weather. It is what it is, for better or worse.

    Agreed. I cant see that low blasting through the cold in situ. I can see it reaching the south and stalling before sliding away east. Closer to ECM than GFS... and a serious blizzard for some parts.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Shevington Wigan
  • Location: Shevington Wigan
    9 minutes ago, Sawel said:

    There's a strong English bias because most posters are English. It is what it is and it's refreshing when posters discuss the UK as a whole and some do but plenty don't.

    Also a strong South East bias.i like to think it's because they're all southern softies :D only joking I realise it' a demographic thing

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire

    I think the streamers will be more extensive than even the hi res models predict. I think we’ll see larger areas of precipitation moving east to west from the Thames estuary, and also through Hull across Yorkshire, the north Midlands and into Wales. Rather than showers, I think these areas will see more widespread snow. Takes me back to the same set up in 90’s when I was at school seeing the snow pile in on an easterly. I could be wrong, but it seems the same set up.

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    1 hour ago, Singularity said:

    Ohh yes. Hammered the Channel Islands while far-southerners wept into their cornflakes.

    Too sodding true.... :-(

     

    More sliders at 240 on GEM - classic spell approaches...

    gem-0-240.png?12

    Edited by Catacol
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, Bristol
    8 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Too sodding true.... :-(

     

    More sliders at 240 on GEM - classic spell approaches...

    gem-0-240.png?12

    Hmmm....like a conveyor belt on a production line

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rainham Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow all the way
  • Location: Rainham Kent
    28 minutes ago, Sawel said:

    There's a strong English bias because most posters are English. It is what it is and it's refreshing when posters discuss the UK as a whole and some do but plenty don't.

    I was thinking exactly the same a couple of weeks ago when the last lot of snow and cold was being delivered day after day......Are they talking about the whole of the UK? Obviously not..... but hey we’re used to it!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    This thread has a severe lack of posters from Scotland. Did the English scare you away? :p @lorenzo is a fairly familiar face...

    the reason why Scotland isn’t probably being addressed as much well to be honest is often isn’t. Is due to wintriest conditions are looking further south and east in more immediate range. However this will change later next week looking at ECM and the snow could really pile in the eastern side of Scotland, which has seen the littlest in Scotland. So that’s nice. :)

    T168 on ECM had a disturbance moving east to west over Scotland more especially north of Central belt. @Northernlights I think your snow is coming! I’d say all places will see something white that’s a rarity. 

    A5C525BC-0FDF-4B61-8EB2-E3D8F22050AB.thumb.gif.3ffe6fcc9d1ad00e48fac7f7c0d2c562.gif

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    Please only post model discussion in this thread 

    For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

    For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

    We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

    Thank you!

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...