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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm not sure I'm convinced by this evolution on the GFS 18z, what does anyone else think?

T132:

gfs-0-132.png?18

T150:

gfs-0-150.png?18

Snowy that it may be.

Can't see it being that easy for the low to push north. Although it still struggles on the notoriously progressive GFS. Snow for C and S England and 50mph gusts Fri/Fri night.

Still think it'll get corrected south a little - perhaps 50-100miles.

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I see a high risk, high reward type of scenario developing for the SE half of the country at the end of next week. The question will be - how far north will that low  pressure travel? Normally the GFS suggests too far north but the UKMO 168 suggested that too.

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I'm not sure I'm convinced by this evolution on the GFS 18z, what does anyone else think?

T132:

gfs-0-132.png?18

T150:

gfs-0-150.png?18

Snowy that it may be.

It certainly blows up the feature as it moves towards the south coast unlike ECM and the mean runs (both by GFS and ECM) to be some what further south east than the op.

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2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I see a high risk, high reward type of scenario developing for the SE half of the country at the end of next week. The question will be - how far north will that low  pressure travel? Normally the GFS suggests too far north but the UKMO 168 suggested that too.

But the means of ECM and GEFS have the low further south and east...but the GFS ops keep doing the same thing

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2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I see a high risk, high reward type of scenario developing for the SE half of the country at the end of next week. The question will be - how far north will that low  pressure travel? Normally the GFS suggests too far north but the UKMO 168 suggested that too.

True. The last 2 UKMO 168s have shown that IIRC. One to watch even if the ECM doesn't agree.

Will look to see what the GEFS says on the matter later.

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2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

It certainly blows up the feature as it moves towards the south coast unlike ECM and the mean runs (both by GFS and ECM) to be some what further south east than the op.

yes its been moving it northwards for several runs now..........was a 5% chance on yesterdays GFS ensemble suite.... 15-20% on tonights 12z GFS.

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5 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Think the Irish Contingent would be happy with that Chart.. winds backing North East.. snow machine 

Very happy charts are of the wall! Never seen anything like it:cold:

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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

But the means of ECM and GEFS have the low further south and east...but the GFS ops keep doing the same thing

Whereas the GFS often programs these systems further north than they tend to be don't assume that it will. Because there are many times too that it is correct and spots a trend early. Hopefully not this time.

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However this low from the south gets ironed out, that thing looks like the definition of brutality. 

Let this sink in, we have ground to a halt with just a few inches on the ground in recent times! To think what this will actually look like with 60mph winds with whiteout conditions and the UK trying to cope with that, does not bear thinking about! 

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I be surprised if the low gets that deep but what might help it to get deep and has it tracking northwards like it does is down to the time of year, with the days getting longer the warm air will be getting stronger at southern latitudes so as we see on this run the warm air wraps around the low and interacting with the deep cold means we get a similar version to the north easter. It's certainly plausible but subject to change.

Another trend is for the flow to be more of a ESE'ly at times which means Scotland is more at risk of frequent heavy snow showers unlike some runs just a day or two back suggsted they might be too close to high pressure to the north.

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GFS 18z is a totally nonsense run.  The T132 to T150 period looks very dodgy to me and so I think the rest of the run can be discounted as too many pints in the pub, a dodgy rancid kebab and a massive chunder!

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

That blizzard next Friday is closer than that in reality. Once the upper flow around day 4 buckles poleward, the subsequent southward shift in the Atlantic jet due to the push of cold uppers leaves that as an eddy feature which has nowhere to go but just meander within sub 520 DAM air. The only questions are how far north it gets.

Do you think the 18z is realistic in terms of its northwards progression? GFS often does this and it's annoying! 

I'd rather it stay a little further south and keep us in the cold for longer.

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z is a totally nonsense run.  The T132 to T150 period looks very dodgy to me and so I think the rest of the run can be discounted as too many pints in the pub, a dodgy rancid kebab and a massive chunder!

As I said compare it to the Fax 120 and the feature is far bigger on the GFS with winds ahead of it backing to the south east near the south coast at that point, where as the Fax shows the feature somewhat flatter and smaller.

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