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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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If you look closely at the ECM 144 chart and see the kink to the NE ...

 

thats where my back yard and  Newcastle used to be ! 

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10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Taking the past 3 12z runs from ECM for March 1st you can see how far north the real cold air has shifted it has gone from hitting northern France to pretty much missing them

21st

ECM0-192.thumb.GIF.2a0b7ff40a66278e4b75cb315adaa0c7.GIF

22nd

ECM0-168.thumb.GIF.c6b97f8fbd3855cef53bd19d9b0343a7.GIF

Today

ECM0-144.thumb.GIF.1194cb5de728ebcedfbfa1fffabf719f.GIF

The way it's correcting Northwards, it seems that it will shift even more. But we don't want anymore corrections, do we?

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7 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

... Some people could be disappointed

The only disappointed people will be those hoping for swly zephyrs!!..no chance:D:cold-emoji:..bitter cold all next week on the Ecm 12z with tons of snow for some areas.

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4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM 192 it just keeps on coming ????

IMG_1764.PNG

IMG_1765.PNG

Slack flow and extremely cold surface air with deep snow for most of the UK.

What's the record low for March again? Somewhere in the -20°c's I think. Perhaps challenging the all time -27.2c°c at some point over the next week or so... 

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

High res NMM Europe showing the cold air heading west

tempresult_dqr8.gif

Just watched that about a dozen times, It`s something that will probably not be seen again for years. Bordering on scary tbh.

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Holy freaking fish fingers! Is this best part of 3 day blizzard, how much snow from this? ECM at T 216.  Cold air firmly in place still.

ECM1-216.GIF?23-0

Edited by Mike Poole
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11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Taking the past 3 12z runs from ECM for March 1st you can see how far north the real cold air has shifted it has gone from hitting northern France to pretty much missing them

21st

ECM0-192.thumb.GIF.2a0b7ff40a66278e4b75cb315adaa0c7.GIF

22nd

ECM0-168.thumb.GIF.c6b97f8fbd3855cef53bd19d9b0343a7.GIF

Today

ECM0-144.thumb.GIF.1194cb5de728ebcedfbfa1fffabf719f.GIF

As per GFS, if it follows this trend its over for Southern England after 4 days.

IIRC this is how the 1991 event ended for us in the SE. Promises of Blizzards on the BBC and in the media ...it turned to rain after an hour and melted our laying 15cm in 12 HOURS.   

We need this to correct South ASAP....not worth the risk imo.

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I have a meeting in London on Thursday flying from Belfast, could anyone attend on my behalf.....if not i’ll have to see if I can get my new shovel in my hand luggage :D

From an amateurish point of view, what possible upgrades, if any, could we expect from models? Everything seems exceptional in terms of output the past week

DBAB5559-9D06-48B2-B686-28598B332BC9.jpeg

09BBEE19-A15C-4B69-B9C4-A6B42CF050AC.png

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8 minutes ago, khodds said:

It’s not just one run though. Been showing on different models for a while now ??

That may be true yes it's been showing very cold weather yes I agree with that but the ecm with this huge dumping of snow as much as I love and due to be so far away a day can make all the difference

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I have never seen so many snow memes....so naturally as youth I feel like I should take part ;)

 

Image result for snow memes

An amazing ECM. I need to sit down for a bit. Won't need to do ice baths after the gym now. I can just run outside into -14 uppers! Perfection!

No but seriously, a stalling low, heavy snow? This is dangerous weather. I will not be surprised to see a red warning appear sometime this week.

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Not as much snown as you'd think on the 12z ECM as the frontal system weakens as it hit the very cold and dry air. 5-7cms in the south, 10-15cms in the SW. Still neat but not as much snow as the 12z GFS.

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4 minutes ago, Snowmaggedon said:

This blizzard which is showing up is it just for the South or nationwide?

Probably a southern event BUT convection due to the increased E'ly flow would drive showers well inland. 

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Unbelievable run Ecm.

Day 10 T240 and guess what still frozen solid ?

IMG_1767.PNG

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

BIG YAWN ? . Bit boring now ?

ECM 216 . 

IMG_1766.PNG

note that the pc air is gone from se uk by day 8 with maxes of 4c in se England and dp's just about into positive territory. ec raw data dp's are not greatly reliable and I would expect that run to begin to thaw somewhat by day 9 in the se (but it wont pan out like that anyway - just to illustrate how if we lose the pc air, a slow thaw could quickly set in unless its slack with sub zero dp's) 

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I don't often wish my life away (especially at weekends) but charts like this just make we wish I could skip the next few days!!

ECM1-192.GIF?23-0

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Not as much snown as you'd think on the 12z ECM as the frontal system weakens as it hit the very cold and dry air. 5-7cms in the south, 10-15cms in the SW. Still neat but not as much snow as the 12z GFS.

The chart shown is inches, which would result in closer to 20cm in the south west & 8 - 10 cm across the rest of southern england. 

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10 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

South of England getting pasted if ECM came off

image.png

so 10cm of snow after a 2 day blizzard ermmmmmmmmmm

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Growing trends now after the initial blistering cold, the next stage could well introduce fronts/low pressure systems into the mix equaling a hugely increased chance of frontal snowfall and blizzards for some:) 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

note that the pc air is gone from se uk by day 8 with maxes of 4c in se England and dp's just about into positive territory. ec raw data dp's are not greatly reliable and I would expect that run to begin to thaw somewhat by day 9 in the se (but it wont pan out like that anyway - just to illustrate how if we lose the pc air, a slow thaw could quickly set in unless its slack with sub zero dp's) 

Yes mate agree . But with this slack flow light winds like @Optimus Prime just said wouldn't we see some very low mins at night , days 9 and 10 ? 

IMG_1768.PNG

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2 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

The chart shown is inches, which would result in closer to 20cm in the south west & 8 - 10 cm across the rest of southern england. 

No its not, I've changed it to cms not inches onthe settings. So it IS 5-7cms in the south and 10-15cms in the SW. Nothing to sneeze at still but its not quite the snow disaster some thought.

 

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